Thread: Real reason why 99% lose - daytrading

Originally Posted by ;

A French jurisdiction report had losers at 90 percent and dropping on average? 8k each inside the six months they traded, my data has it nearer to 96%.

Yep. Six months is the typical retail account signle top up longetivity. They blow away it for in between 1 day and 365 days, for instance.

Originally Posted by ;

But believe this; a series of coin tosses should come out in 50-50%. .now then, can you determine why the failure info is so negatively skewed?

It cannot be because the market is made to benefit the market manufacturers or the house with other words? GotId be something else ?!?

Originally Posted by ;

... there are no short cuts. You set yourself up for the long run, or you set yourself up to fail - easy as.

I will think of one short-cut given that statistically 90% of traders are losing...
(1) Subscribe to people who have TE...
(2) Move the contrary of the open trades...

Note: this isn't a recommendation...

Originally Posted by ;

quote I can think of one short-cut given that statistically 90% of traders are losing... (1) Subscribe to those who own TE... (2) Go the opposite of their open trades... Note: this isn't a recommendation...

Haha that might really work!
But we gotta account for spreads and other costs that might eat up profits. And tracking error too.
I can't loe the study now but theres this older research showing that one of the chief reason why active investors underperform passive investors is due to each of the prices and commissions they rack up.

If 99% drop in daytrading compared to reason is quite clear - Day Trading is for the losers! I read somewhere average Day Trader earns the minimum wage. Why would anybody do this day in day out I wonder why

It has several other problems beyond market making; believing in indiors and egies, lack of capital, leading to margin calls through the use of excessive leverage, not understanding probabilities and risk...

Originally Posted by ;

quote Yep. Six months is the average retail account signle top up longetivity. They blow away it for between 1 day and 365 days, for example. quote It cannot be because the market was designed to profit the market makers or the house with other words? Gotta be something else ?!?

Originally Posted by ;

Nope, it#8217;s closer to 70 percent shedding, but you need to take on board how that info could be twisted, for example, which might be the actual losing bets, but the quantity of shedding traders might be a lot higher. A French jurisdiction report had losers at 90 percent and losing on average #8364;8k each inside the six months that they traded, my data has it closer to 96%. But consider this; a collection of coin tosses should come out in 50-50%. .now afterward, can you figure out why the failure info is indeed negatively skewed? quote

Coin throw is 50%-50% -
price 100 - see sell price of currency 50 pips DOWN is 50, buy BUY price is 52 - reduced payout by 2 pips
price 100 - watch sell price of currency 50 pips UP- BUY price is 152 - raised reduction by 2 pips
In 100 transactions - 50 optimistic (with reduced payout of 2 pips),
50 disadvantage (with increased reduction of 2 pips)

Psichology makes people thing it is equivalent 50 pips down 50 pips up however in reality it is 48% - 48%.

But in reality with 200 leverage, to take place 0.01 lot you need 6$ so 2 pips vigorish is 0.20$.

Where we capture chances of 3.33% vigorish on commerce.
On roulette vigorish is 2.70% - money last more on roulette afterward on forex but eventualy lose

Solution to problem is buy and hold egy long-term 1 commerce. Does this work? Ask warren buffet


this is buy doing 50 pips with stop reduction 50 pips (since 01.01.2015)




this is sell doing 50 pips with stop reduction 50 pips at the same prices (01.01.2015)



We watch expected payout will be allmoust same 0.30 pet commerce on buy and sell in series of over 1000 trades typical. Profit trades decresed, reduction trades increased so 50-50% isn't 50-50 as majority daytraders belive.

But what if we use long-term egy and compound profit during long-term tendencies since 01.01.2015?


But suppose that if we reduce egy to buy and hold warren buffet style?

The only long term research done on daytrading was completed within a 15 year period in asia, it discovered that approximately 95% of people lost after a year, after 3 years this number increased to approximately 98 percent of traders and after 5years the failure rate was 99.7%.
I think its reasonable to say that if you are going to daytrade and expect to become profitable within a 5 year or two longer the chances are a tad against you.

Originally Posted by ;

quote Haha that might actually work! But we gotta account for spreads and other costs that might consume profits. And tracking error also. I can't loe the study now but theres this old research demoning that one of the main reason why active investors underperform passive investors is due to each of the costs and commissions they rack up.

The disperse eats up profit no matter the manner of trading you're using. Daytraders lose and so does everybody. Fixing forex like a 9 to 5 is the only method to profit in the short and long term. Someone even pointed out that time is objective and that is a really valid point that creates this thread quite moot. As I crown the O.P. of the thread as Sir. ShowUsYourProfit

Originally Posted by ;

quote But we gotta account for spreads and other costs that might eat up profits.
. . .the main reason active investors underperform passive investors is due to each of the prices and commissions they rack up.

At the dawn of time (market modeling time( that's ) that was called weak form efficiency.

For day trading, it means even if a person can extract sufficient signal to construct a winning egy, the signal is virtually always so weak that the expected value of a commerce is inside the bid/offer spread. That is how casinos work, and why anyone running any kind of casino needs their customers to exchange (or pull on slot handle/roll the dice) starting early and often.

Originally Posted by ;

quote ABSOLUTELY! Only the professionals do make money consistently. I don't have the stats, but figured out it the winning traders have to be around 0.001%. Well, I was wrong! It appears the winners are WITH TIMES LESS: 0.0004%! Buddy, the brokers, will all jump on us now, because this info, if public, will harm their business badly...

Yes, professional do of course much better but. . .they will also be losing cash

Originally Posted by ;

FX hedge funds lost money in half the previous eight years, the Parker Global Index statistics showed.

Within this guide, they explain their egies are losing money because of randomness of the FX market:

https://www.bloombergquint.com/marke...llar-perplexes

In fact, you are right they are the only ones making consistently money. . .but not from their own trading. . .but from the fees they charge to their customers whether they win or they lose!