Thread: Trend Trading

I am in @ 1.3917 and it do not look great. 1.4000 ish is a powerful zone and it only went up yesterday at the mention of over QE. I will maintain the position and maybe even allow it to move against me personally a little.If it neglects to split this 1,4000 zone I will likely ease out of it.My opinion is to examine yesterdays low and see whether service is contested. Seems like a lot of bulls around 1.3900. In addition, I believe if price stays over the 50sma over the 4 hour chart then the retrace is going to be little, but over all it is way above on the Daily. So I am bullish but careful. David please check your E mail Regards Mr D

It disapeared although I replied to your post David. Anyhow I am in At 1.3917 however 1.4000 ish zone is really powerful. Please check you e-mail regards MR D

I see my Article That I Shall blame it on being over 50 (old age)
Regards

Originally Posted by ;

I'm in @ 1.3917 and it don't look great. 1.4000 ish is a strong zone and it only went up at the mention of more QE. I will keep the position and maybe also allow it to go against me a little.If it fails to break this 1,4000 zone I will probably ease from it.My opinion is to look at yesterdays low and determine if service is contested. Looks like a lot of bulls around 1.3900. In addition, I think if price remains over the 50sma on the 4 hour chart then the retrace is going to be small, but most importantly it is way above on the Daily. So I'm bullish but...

Well good luck with it. I'm also tempted to go into but haven't yet. Basically, I think markets are random on short time frames along with the real edge comes from the long-term underlying trend which is determined by what the cash is really doing, not what you think the large money should be doing according to your own personal understanding of the fundamentals.

At this time the trend is definitely up about the EUR/USD (however that does not mean that can't change in the next five minutes). There are only two ways to trade the trend once you get a clear sign on it's direction. Either you wait for a price retrace seeking to buy low and sell high (or vice versa). Or you wait for a new intense looking to buy high and sell much higher (or vice versa). Personally, I favor the subsequent on currencies (which is why I haven't entered yet) and the prior on stocks. But the two ways, I think, are sound.

For what it is worth about 60 percent of small retail traders are brief http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/open-position-ratios so I believe it's likely that the trend is fairly strong. The other signs seem good also. The price is near 6 monthly highs or more and the upward candles are the larger ones (frequently during an upward trend they'll be a lot of small down candles in a row as the retail traders evaporate the large underlying trend, followed by a few large candles when a few large traders come in the market to take another side of their transactions ).

You have obviously got a fair bit of trading experience Mr D. Can you do this complete time?

I made most of my cash although 94914David, I really do whole time to trade. I still do much more in stocks but I invest 20 minutes every day on them and the remainder of the time searching for a means to try to tame the curriencies.I dropped 19,000 trading curriencies like I trade stocks about 4 decades ago. Ever since that time I hit the books for the next 3 decades and I am finally profitable but I trade the EURUSD and USDJPY. I made a few and my loss back. I understand cash management is crucial and the reduced margins in the USA on the OCT 18, will create volatility a bit safer. Make it slower but lose it slower. I don't look at charts smaller than 4 hour thats just for entrance. I really like the weekly and if people would only take 2 weeks and look just at the chart. DO things like test the percent re trace weekly or monthly. What percent does 1st week of this month move. Or the second week and ETC.. Then cross reference that with the Daily and maybe the 4 hour. You see exactly what the big boys are doing at a particular time. I just trade 4-6 times per month and thats a lot. I am hoping to find a bit better at position trading rather than swing trading. I need more time for less work and traveling. David are you close London, we will travel there in the winter to visit with friends. Regards Darrell ps you're right and that I think buying over the high could have been safer.

94915Hey guys I'm out at 1.3350 upward 33 pip rather than many traders will admit mistakes. Idiotic although not crushing. I look to enter higher and try to transform me to a longer term position trader. Sorta like those turtles David speaks of. Regards all

94915Hi men,

Firstly, let me say THANK YOU to Davidee for starting this thread being generous enough to share your own thoughts. And to the others for their views.

Just found this thread last night Aussie time. I like the simplicity of the Idea. So I will be a regular writer ( possibly a part-time contributer). I am new to forex still in a learning curve, but I am really starting to earn some trades.

I always expected trading something along these lines so that I did not have to sit down in the front of a screen all night - best commerce time in Oz is 8pm - 3am. Not my idea of fun! Trading the longer term charts makes sense. And, as has been said, the daily weekly show signs of spikes.

I had faith that the 1.4000 barrier would be broken stay breached, so I jumped in at 1.3940 last night. As I assessed my entrance price while composing this the pips only topped 100. YIPPEE!! Now it just has to keep on going. I'm trailing a stop at a discreet space - currently around 200 pips. I intend to leave till I hit break even this trailing. Then I will leave it there till a 50 interval LWMA line meets it (likely in about 12 days by my figure ). Then it will be adjusted daily to the line until either stopped out or I believe that the commerce has reversed since something similar to fundamentals has shifted.

I have also entered the other great, currently trending currencies;
Aud/Usd @ 0.9879 Usd/Chf @ 0.9628

Just to keep tabs on them test my exit plan I also entered:
Usd/Jpy @ 81.78 Gbp/Aud @ 1.6006 1.6039 (they have great, but not great tendencies )

I added a second lot to the GA commerce since it looked to be finishing a little retrace this morning gave a better entrance than my first last night (now averaging 20 pips). In future I would look to input after a couple of displays on the daily by following it all the way to the 30 or 15 minutes, then drawing a trend line the line.

These 4 trades all have smaller stops compared to the EU - 47 for its Chf (I entered near the top of the lengthy candle at 11:45 last night now trail SL at 110) up to 120 for the others. Lots to be more to be gained, although lost.

Contemplating these transactions were jumped into rather than waiting for a good entrance I'm very impressed with the concept. As I write they have gone over 300 pips favorable.

Oh yeah. I am still demonstration trading, so all that can get hurt is my ego; and thats been ruined several times .

Lets see what the market decides. Cheers,
Mick

94915

Originally Posted by ;

Hey guys I'm outside at 1.3350 upward 33 pip and not many traders will admit mistakes. Not crushing but dumb. I seem to enter higher and attempt to change me into a longer term position trader. Sorta like those turtles David speaks of. Regards all

Well it appears to be holding up pretty well above 1.40 along with the GBP/USD is managing to stay over 1.60. I will likely go long one lot EUR/USD when it closes over 1.40 when I home from work providing the extended short ratio is OK. Yesterday you got out , but hey, at least it was not a loss. I don't live anywhere near London (thankfully), I'm in Aberdeen, Scotland.

94915Right that's me at 1.4081. Price me 168 pips X both lots I'd built up with pyramiding. If I had only stuck to the principles I would have obtained another 168 pips for the rankings.

Everyone and 94915Hey David, I'm traveling over the next 10-12 days. Will contact here once I return. Great luck whatsoever. God Bless MR D