Thread: Trading what moves the market - NZD/USD

Hello. That is ment for your forex rookies which are currently studying TA and feel like they are not going much further ahead. The FX market goes up with buyers and down with sellers just like any other. We're interested in how to get long before others push price up and/or how to market before others so we can profit from falling price. Finding clusters in which an overpowering area of orders exist is what we're searching to enter or depart our trade and where to base our stop-loss. Lets start with retail broker Oanda demoning their customer's orders positioning. (that is not 100% accurate as its a fractal perspective, anyone can chage their order at anytime, and it's an UNcentralized market. . Get used to it) There are order news rumor resources on the internet.

The Setup:
Attached in the Nzd/Usd order arrangement found on http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/fo...r-book#NZD/USD and those orders indied on the N/U 4hr price chart:
We have large sell orders at .8150 and directly above .8200, along with buyers under the market .7620-.7700, using some market stops under the lows.

Execution:
There are 3 basic confirmations to look closely at.
1. Nzd/Usd in these zones, ready to exchange a rest or rejection of those levels.
2. Trade must be in line with market sentiment (yearning predied on a favorable projected prognosis, short on disadvantage )
3. Nzd/Usd doesn't have the quantity to move the market like the majors have, but follows Aud/Usd very closely bc of geographical proximity and have the 2 highest interest rates of their majors. Our 3rd confirmation is on the Aud/Usd chart upon trade time so the need to follow Aud news/data is strong also.

So men, any trade thoughts based on this info? Where do you find the greatest possible transactions based on this info (entrance,SLTP levels)? Please no posting or with confirmation from indiors which derive from price.

Updating the charts. Nzd orders are still valid.

Some terrible news today about contamination of milk powder in NZ, which can be a major deal as dairy product is by far their largest export.

Aud has been hit with not-so-good news as well, with traders pricing at a 91 percent (highest yet) likelihood of a 25bps cut for the Aug 6th RBA rate upgrade.

Originally Posted by ;

So men, any commerce ideas based on this info? Where do you see the best possible transactions based on this information (entry,SLTP amounts )? Please no posting or with affirmation from indiors which are derived from price. picture picture

Hi! I only found your thread. I hope that you come back as I want to learn this kind of trading. To answer your question - I'd sell it when it hits the stop of the buyers at that red zone. Right?

Hey! The 2 red zones up top are clusters of vendors, you will find buy stops above those highs (right beneath the red zones) so I would expect to see price increase quickly, trapping longs, and sellers will reap the benefits. Where could you enter, and where could TP levels and your stop be?

The levels on the chart are half of it however. When price climbs in to the markets, there needs to be some negative news looming (RBNZ talks of a rate cut, for instance ) and the same if price falls into the buyers. In the meantime, whilst Nzd is in this range, let's continue on New Zealand news or Usd news that might impact the opinion of the pair. Lately when the Fed mentions taping'shortly' it has been awful for its higher-yielding majors like Aud and Nzd.

Originally Posted by ;

Hey, Thank you for posting! Both red zones up top are clusters of vendors, you will find buy stops above these highs (right under the red zones) so I'd expect to see price increase quickly, trapping longs, and sellers will take advantage. Where could you input, and where could your stop and TP levels be?

I frankly have no idea. Do I want to see DS's publiion?

Originally Posted by ;

The amounts on the chart are half of it however. When price rises in to the sells, there needs to be some negative news looming (RBNZ talks of a rate cut, by way of example) and the same if price drops to the buyers. In the meantime, whilst Nzd is in this range, let us keep up on New Zealand news or Usd news that may affect the sentiment of this pair. Recently when the Fed mentions taping'soon' it has been bad to the higher-yielding majors like Aud and Nzd.

Ok.

No, you dont need to read a book. You'll want to sell in to the reddish areas, pending poor nzd/positive usd news. You can do half the transaction at the very first red and half of the 2nd box if price moves there, or await price action confirmation just like a trendline break on an intrday chart in that region. Theres so many ways to enter, whichever feels comfortable.

Thanks Emerald. Only news I have is to get USD. Looks like Wholesale Inventories came in worse than expected...

Get a sense for what the market expects from Nzd and Usd by reading up on the most recent news. The major headlines have been Fed tapering which is USD positive and talk from RBNZ saying the Nzd is still overpriced, room to devalue farther, then their exports are now going to be hurt bc of Fonterra too.

Wholesale inventories, unless horribly incorrect, will not affect the market too much. Start looking for big news or an important data release when Nzd is up in the red regions.

I really like this uptrend for a short opportunity shortly. The traders which have been trading with the trend/breakout are all in on it, with their stops at breakeven or beneath recent lows. This can accelerate a down move since it did an upmove that moment, from shorts exiting. . Helping price move up.