Thread: if 99% fail why not reverse what we trade

whats a contrarian ??? eh, a what lol

Originally Posted by ;

There's yet another point made earlier in this thread, about how expert's all tell you they lacked a few accounts before becoming profitable....hmmm. Well I understand quite a couple of pro's and none of them has ever mentioned blowing off an account to me, I've certainly never blown off an account.

Yeah. Blowing an account is probably a bad sign. Either you failed to perform due diligence (learning the fundamentals, risk management, etc.), or you had been bad of a trader that even with the fundamentals you were unable to draw the entire account. Even during my trading stages, when I concurrently overtraded and overrisked, I had enough wins speckled in with all the losses to keep me from going too far under. I can't imagine losing my balance that is entire

Originally Posted by ;

should you run forward in the enemy and cuts down with machine gun fire, then you simply run backward in the enemy and you will win?

Incorrect analogy...

the theory in here is easy: do the opposite of what winners are doing.
This is just what is called contrarian. FXCM includes a study on this called SSI. Test it. And im applying it with some success.

Originally Posted by ;

Yeah. Blowing an account is a bad signal. Either you failed to do due diligence (studying the fundamentals, risk management, etc.), or you were bad of a trader that despite the fundamentals you were still able to draw down the whole account. Even during my worst trading phases, when I concurrently overtraded and overrisked, I still had enough wins speckled in together with all the losses to keep me from moving too far beneath. I honestly can not imagine losing my whole balance

It really all comes down to risk management

My personal record of a lousy trading streak was I had just 4 winning trades from 65. . .This was within the course of 7 months

In this time because I had been very diligent with my money management I only drew down my accnt by 4%

This was years back although the valuble lesson I learned was this.... Constantly be flexible with how far you really risk... if you get on a losing streak the probabilities are greatly increased your next trade will be a failure because of a plethora of reasons... and if you get to a winning streak chances are the next trade will be a winner

Thus in essence the largest reason people blow up accnts is because when they're losing plogically it makes sense in the moment to risk more about the next trade to make back what you lost.... IMHO that is suicide for a trader.... Try decreasing leverage after sustaining a few losses... increasing it back to regular leverage only after a few wins....

Same goes for winning. . If you get a few wins in a row using regular leverage... go ahead and up the ante a little... use the markets money to secure a few windfall profits


In all honestly I put a lot more losing trades than winners... however the percentage of my accnt I lose is exponentially smaller than that which I profit...

again this is only my style... and it works because of my own analyzed style of trading....


Im currently creating more of a day trading method that has proven to be rather hard and Im taking some hits.... But Ill get it.... Persistence goes a long way in this game

If you could play like that then visit the casinos!

Originally Posted by ;

the answer is...

we consider profits only partly

but declines are ours in full

can I use this?

Originally Posted by ;

should you run forward in the enemy and cuts down with machine gun fire, you simply run backward in the enemy and you'll win?

Redlion is totally right about it. Enemy cuts down with machine gun fire, now it is time to take cover, plan a egy to take out the enemy, make sure it works, implement the egy.

Originally Posted by ;

Yes you are right Marv concerning the 99% I pulled it from the atmosphere,its probably more like 99.9%

I have heard amounts up around 95% but neglect is a bad word to use.

Individuals quit trading for any range of reasons even if they're making some money so I think that number is highly overstated.

Some start trading because they think they will make big cash in a short period of time. They show just a bit of profit but no where near what they anticipated so they place their money elsewhere.

Some think they could make some cash without much time and energy. They find out that it requires a lot of effort and time and although they are showing any profit they determine the entire issue is just not worth all the time and effort and strain it's breaking them.

Originally Posted by ;

I have heard numbers up around 95% but fail is a poor term to use.

Individuals quit trading for any number of reasons even if they're making some money, therefore I think that number is highly overstated.

Some begin trading because they think they are going to make big cash in a short time period. They reveal just a bit of profit but no where near what they anticipated so they put their money elsewhere.

Some think they could make some cash without much time and energy. They soon find out that it requires a lot of work and time and even when they...

The ones who survive and prosper in this forum and as traders are the 5 percent of traders who succeed. If miniature keep this up, you'll find out that this forum could be a 5 percent. Not all, but should we continue applying new knowledge, price action, discipline, emotional intelligence, we could be the 5 percent.

Originally Posted by ;

Not all, but when we continue using new knowledge, price action, discipline, emotional intelligence, we can be the 5%.

I think you get a fantastic attitude especially when you mention using new knowledge. Markets change so it is essential that we adjust to them. What formerly held true yesterday may not always hold true tomorrow.

I think that 20%-30% of people don't lose money trading FX. That is a conservative estimate. They just quit trading for many distinct factors.