Thread: My Gpb/Jpy trades

The trade revealed in attachment, is entered with the egy above.

The maximum ceiling is approximately 161.00 and atr at the time was 10 that
put the stop limit at maximum ceil atr/2 = 166.00

it pivoted at 165.2 and is directed down - exit intended at S3 151.8
utilizing current atr which is around 8.8.

Entered trade at 166-2.5=163.5 (by entering twice @163 and 164)

4% used (2 lots) or $2000 in exchange out of $50k funds - could lead to 10%
loss on the downside - 250pips financial loss (see 2.5 above)

downside loss = 250pips* 4%=10%.

Gain potential = 1200pips*4%=48%

Had to alter my leaves as volatility reduced mostly due to upcoming
non-farm employment alter news. Together with atr(10) hovering around 7.5,
departure is at 153.

However the ceiling has triple returns and could be an indior
of a major move to the downside. Might be wise to move the
exits to S4 - 149.5.

Lost patience and exited near S3 in 153.8 and pip profit amounts to 163.5-153.8~920pips.

Near 38% profit on balance.

Thanks Sree for the valuable info you're providing. I have a question if you don't mind. How to place the ceiling? Based on which day?

Assume I wish to exchange GBPJPY today, what will the ceiling be and how did you reach it? I am having difficulty understanding this component.

Thanks,

Originally Posted by ;

lost patience and exited near S3 in 153.8 and pip gain amounts to 163.5-153.8~920pips.

Close to 38% gain on equilibrium.

Max Ceiling (famous ) for today is 160.95(or even 161 rounded off).

Ghadeer, there's no means of knowing the maximum ceiling accurately as the
ceiling itself is a range. The only advice I have is historical candlestick
patterns. In 10/22/08 that the g/y candle rod broke below the preceding range.
After that event, the candlestick on 10/23/08 lasted in an undecided
pattern, reverting to the upside, heading down for a while and resting eventually
back at the center (such as a doji). It was followed with a huge breakthrough motion below another floor around 10/24/08. This leaves 10/24/08
candlestick highpoint because the marker of the ceiling maximum that's 159.95 (or 160 rounded off).

Why is 10/23/08 maximum being used as ceiling maximum - 161??!

The reason is if you have a second look at this candle stick, it's hard
to tell whether it goes back to the upper range or it goes to the one lower.
Ranges are at least two to 2.5 atrs in dimension (top to bottom). The candle stick
on 10/22 and 10/23 seems to have covered a range but seems to
have gotten under that amount (unusual event), which is why I eventually
made a decision to treat the 10/23 candle rod and 10/24 candlestick collectively as
one candle pole all the way down and this provides me the known ceiling max
as the maximum of 10/23 - 161.00.


yeah! Selecting a secure ceiling maximum is as much an art as it's amounts.

Every pattern throws up new challenges and lots of times you will have
to return to the previous pattern and atr to determine previous
flooring and find which candle rod actually broke through that floor.
The one that got below the (floor minute - atr/2).

Then one needs to study that candle stick to see how much of it belongs to the top
range and how much of it belongs to this one lower - if it's a brief
candlestick, you can pick the maximum and apply the same. However
if it's a very long candlestick with important presence in the prior range,
that's when it gets complex. Then a detailed study of this 24 hour
candlestick patterns (zoom ing in on that day candle stick) and
discovering when it broke through the floor and maximum prices it reached
following the breakthough should help you seal the maximum ceiling price
which you were searching for - hope this helps.

Originally Posted by ;

Thanks Sree for the valuable information you are providing. I have a question if you don't mind. How to place the ceiling? Based on which day?

Assume I wish to exchange GBPJPY today, what will the ceiling be and how did you reach it? Sorry, I am having trouble understanding this component.

Thanks,

The web site below shows the futures for several major Currency Market pairs and
appear to signal a sharp drop for Nov 20th(tomorrow).
G/y pair futures contract is conspicuously missing. A minimal employment figure news release at 9:30AM ought to signal a sharp decreasing tendency for usd/jpy pair and may possibly drag g/y using it.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx

Look under FxProducts

Researching for last few days with futures advice, it unlike in the case of shares does not appear to be a
significant forecaster for the forex market.
Need to take the preceding blog on predictions using futures to become rather
speculative at best.

Current Strategy uses maximum ceilings (in case of downward trending pair) as
a fair guesstimate utilizing chart watching the daily
and hourly candlestick patterns and attempting to speculate on high-level
dependent on the breakthrough candle along with subsequent candle stick high
points.

After analyzing historical tendencies on the g/y pair and calculating ceases, entrances and exits for the same, have arrived at a sensible simplifiion of this egy. The technique to symplify the same is to
use the breakout candlestick maximum and the most of this immediately
next candlestick pattern and require a simple average of both - as the
maximum ceiling. Atr/2 can then be added to find the stop limitation and
entry can be put at the maximal ceiling (could be sweetened by dividing
or diluting). The sum of money entered into the trade will be
(stoplimit - ceiling maximum )*sum =lt; 10 percent of total capital.

Since the range continues, I'm discovering that the entries are harder to make
at ceiling maximum and would necessitate increasing dilution - keeping the risk and
stop reduction (calcuted together with all the new atr) unchanged.

This manner the financial risk is unchanged and entry is made much more
prone to take place.

Exits - I use to stick to S3. This may be extended to S4 for moment
entrances and nicely below S6(or close to the ground ) for third entrances.
A triple strike on ceiling signifies a breakthrough through the ground floor
may be imminent.

A cautionary note: For tendencies on g/y pair that I have discovered is that
a very simple breakthrough (maybe not a multiple breakthrough through many
floors) when re - that's if it returns back to the previous
range without attaining a floor nicely over 2*atr is a sign of things to
come. Traders seem to be shying away from the tendency and
a future change likely.
Another caveat along the same lines is that a triple alteration from the floor.
This indies the same trader emotion of uncertainity in dis-continuing the tendency and further trades need to be suspended until the pattern either yields to the ceiling and does a unsustainable breakout out of the top and decides to return for fourth (and largely final) try to divide the floor!
MACD and Slow stochastics may be used to time a entrance to the above mentioned
reversals near the ceiling for massive pip gains - possibly including the
breakout! Entries cannot truly be made utilizing the original egy
like ceiling maximum and stop limits for these cases and has to rely more
on compelling momentum. When the momentum is set up, the stop loss
could be re-entered (ceiling maximum atr/2) along with also the sum traded calculated
utilizing maximum fin risk of 10 percent.

Employing number from the former illuion

Candle stick max for 10/22/08 = 168.
Candle stick max for 10/23/08 = 161.
So
Max ceiling = 168 161/2 = 164.5.
Stop Limit = 164.5 5.0 (atr/2)=169.5 (looking about right - midway on previous range)
Entry = 164.5.
Money which could be traded - calc the risk = (169.5-164.5)*cash = 10 percent of $50000 = $5000.
So Cash = 1000 or 1 lot. (2% of balance)

Subsequent entries can be reached at reduced points like 162 etc with
less money in the trade.

This is an easy picture best trade!

It doesn't get any better than this in real trading. THe fad direction was down.
Waited until price alerts went off if prices hit CPP entereed short. Price action
wasn't good for some time. Entered short below R1.

Depart 134.2 (130 [pip under ])

Truth that CPP was close to R1 helped. Otherwise the price action could have compelled
me to shut the initial transaction at a loss and run the next.