Thread: My Gpb/Jpy trades

2-6% gearing, 10%-15% risk, 10-30% Profit

The famed default MACD indior, (fondly pronounced MacD) does not seem to
be of much use in trending markets. The indior is the difference b/w
26ema and 12ema lines. This depend on the fact that the
26 ema is a rather stable (like it's - say at a ranging market) indior and the
12 ema moves around it creating positve and negative variation
within the macd average line (which utilizes 9 branch average). All that's fine as
long since the market is oscillating at a range between floors.
Soon as the market begins trending, gone would be the smooth curves,
hills and valleys. Now the macd begins bouncing off from an immediate cross or max things or whip lashes.

Guess the ideal indior of breakouts are tightening bollinger bands
or just plain old fundamentals, new events, mass hysteria, gaining confidence for carry trading and so forth.

Trading at the direction of this trend markedly reduces breakout losses.
The issue is when trend itself changes!!

Wish there is some indior of a change in vogue.

The only one available is multiple breakouts
in the opposite direction of the prevailing trend with decreasing tops
changing to climbing bottoms or viseversa.
A phenomenon that in some instances takes a month to decipher
and may issue couple unpleasant stop loss hits before the trend
reasserts and continues.

Entered long position with 100k (1lot) in 279. ATR being stop was
put at 182. Exit point at (S3)271.5 (moved from 271) after ATR dropped
into 5.2~5 range.

Pip profit - 750

Thank you for starting the thread. It would be quite nice if you are able to clarify your egy and support your transactions with charts and remarks. This will make it a better thread. Thank you for sharing the data.

Originally Posted by ;

Entered long position with 100k (1lot) at 279. ATR being 6, stop was
placed at 182. Exit stage at (S3)271.5 (moved from 271) after ATR dropped
into 5.2~5 range.

Pip gain - 750

The trading egy uses ceilings and flooring to establish stop limits
initially and entries following that.
Usually, the maximum potential stage in the ceiling(or smallest pt at
the ground ) is picked, which in this case was 179(watch the pivot pt on the afternoon
candle stick to 10/8/2008) right before everything headed down.

Now as soon as prices begin going up towards the ceiling, use a specialized
indior - atr(10) which stands for moderate movement for 10 times
to figure the stop limit. Say whether the atr is 600pips(which it was), the stoplimit is calculated as maximum ceil 0.5*atr = 179 300pips= 182.
That's the highest the prices should go to with the current volatility after
the ceiling maximum (179) is attained. If prices breakout above that, it is
then considered a ceiling breakout. Chances are prices would
retract before it gets there. In this case it erupts in 181.2.

Now admissions are created 250pips(maximum fin loss sustainable)
below the stop limit. So 182-250=179.5.
In the preceding entry it took a while before I saw that the ceiling maximum (my bad)
and had to make 2 entries to average up to the desired entrance pt. . .so.
However, 2 entries around 179.5 can be made intentionally if you
want to have multiple entries (say 179,180 which averages into 179.5)

Exits are depending upon where the price pivots and each half atr below
that pivot pt is a support level. S1 is half atr below, S2 is 1 atr and
so on. Ranges can go upto S6 or S8 (the floor on the opposite end)
but traders exit on S1,S2,S3 or S4. Going from S1 to S6, the rewards
growth but so will the risk.
Mostly would exit on S3 which in this case is 181.2-1.5*550pips= 172.95 or just 173!

(Can move stop to breakeven when price reaches S2 and prices may
only differ b/w S1 and S2 before going into S3, in this case
S2=181.2-550pips=175.7)

Dropped 250 on the previous breakout to the downside. Need to begin
utilizing technology indiors to attempt to predict the same

breakouts cannot readily be called and it's been an achille's heel.
MACD(12,26,9) should give some warning signs such as powerful
divergence into the disadvantage - potential possiblity (MACD is a really lagging indior) coupled
with a price close to the min floor level would suggest a wait and
watch egy. That is as close as I got, along with fundamentals
to attempt to predict a breakout. Most breakouts are preceded by
a narrowing bollinger group but need not always be true.

Stochastics are not much use in a trending market.

Any suggessions welcome!

Originally Posted by ;

Entered long position with 100k (1lot) at 279. ATR being 6, stop was
placed at 182. Exit point at (S3)271.5 (moved from 271) after ATR fell
into 5.2~5 range.

Pip gain - 750

Entered short(correction!) Place with 100k(1lot)... (see above)

Thanks a lot Sree,

I appreciate the explanation. I'd really like to follow up on ur trades. Please keep posting ur trades. A brief explanation on each trade would be valued.

Thanks again.

Originally Posted by ;

Entered short(correction!) Position with 100k(1lot)... (see above)

Do calculate ATR @ 550 or 600?
lichart atr looks diff. Can u explain. Thx

--------------x-------------

The atr(10) is from the daily charts. Open charts on candlesticks pattern
and place it to daily (revealing day movements). Now select
atr from the technical indiors and in parameters select 10 (I think the
default is 14). That is it! For the g/y pair it's been going up for as
large as 800 pips. It keeps shing and if placing my stops overetimate
and so if it is 550, I may utilize 600 and when placing my s3 (for exit), I just
utilize the current value which in this case is 550.

Hi Sree
Have been reading through your journal and am struggling a bit to understand your egy, would be a lot easier to understand if you could post some charts which I think would make it a bit clearer.Just another question do you risk 10 percent per commerce and so are you after a reward of 30% or is this an annualized thing.Interested to hear your comments and good luck with the diary.