Thread: Bears trading diary

6 Structure (s) Cable

The 1.5800 amount that I flagged last week was tried and fell short by a few points. The Fibonacci target mentioned last week has held just over 1.5500. This tight trading range that we've been in over the last week is only building for another good move. A move above 1.5800 would indie this as a fictitious break and a move back into the station and move under the 1.5500 amount would indie a quick move down to 1.5200.

Euro

The retrace back into the 1.3800 amount that was flagged last week seem to have come by and drove the price down even farther. I have been looking for a target of 1.3300 for a while now, but considering the chart pattern throughout the last week, it looks like the appetite for being short the Euro is beginning to wane. It's over extended on the short side right now and would be tightening stops since it appears that there is some accumulation going on with the currency.

Loonie

The preceding resistance is still coming to position and even though we now have the Loonie back to the 1.0500 level it is still at the triangulation pattern. A move below 1.0450 will be needed to cancel this pattern and assume that we are going back to the bottom of the station at 1.0200 and to the trading range.

Yen

The trendline cite last week appears to have become support on the Yen. The rest above the 91.00 mentioned a week remains critical for this particular currency to go long. Along with the present triangulation pattern that we have we also carry a flag pattern that has come in to play. The target out of this gives you a target at 96.00 on the Yen.

Aussie

The recent strength from the Aussie Dollar has broken the triangulation pattern for the downside and it appears the currency has moved back into the range. The initial 2 targets on the triangulation where met but then struggled to make it into the third at 0.8450. We still have a series of lower highs over the last 6 months so would have to get above 0.9000 convincingly earlier I would have to modify my short bias on the currency.

Dollar Index

I have been on the Lookout for a target on the Dollar Index for the last couple of weeks of above 83.00. Unless we see a strong close above 81.00 at the coming days afterward I would have to say that we'd expect a move back to 78.50. The days ranges from the index are suggesting that professionals are shutting out there longs on the US Dollar and the RSI divergence that's going on is added weight to that argument. Watch carefully as the inverse relationship between the Dollar Index and the US and so global stock markets happen to be well linked within the last few years.

6 Structure (s) Cable

The movement mentioned last week as a set up for brief movement at 1.5800 was reached and then broke down by more than 400 points in less than 3 days. We now have an acceleration to the downside with a goal of 1.5200 short term and a potential move within the coming weeks of 1.4800. The simple fact that what was service is now resistance and the spacing involved in the pattern over the previous week indies that this movement is still in play and isn't showing any signs of slowing down.
Euro
The accumulation that I flagged a week at the currency still seems to be moving on. The current pattern that we have observed over the previous week is just one of exhaustion and the inability to reach down to the 1.3300 level throughout the week is just another sign that this can be oversold in the brief term. With the performance and moves of Cable within the previous week we could be seeing a shing out of being short the Euro into Cable. I would be cautious about being brief at the moment.
Loonie
We have had a transfer below the 1.0450 degree that I said last week down to another Fibonacci level. The trading ranges are among a trend that is struggling to go lower.
Yen
The rest in the flag pattern that we talked about last week has come into play. We could see a little retracement early in the week down to 90.80 before resuming the uptrend but nevertheless see a goal of about 96.00 within the coming couple of months
Aussie
Based on the chart patterns over the previous week and price action it might appear that the Aussie Dollar is going to break the cover of the range of the channel. A move above 90.40 would indie a rest from the channel and consolidation pattern along with also a movement towards the 93.00. Something to watch pretty closely over the next week or so.
Dollar Index
I was looking for a strong close over the 81.00 level from the Dollar index before I would alter my view that the US dollar is over extended. The divergence has become more obvious in the previous week and the strong change against the trendline and Fibonacci goal add further weight that we ought to be looking for lower prices out of the dollar index in the coming weeks.

Took a short place @ 1.7454 @ 7.18am London time

ideas and Suggestions

The momentum had change to short perform to the new york session and also the best bollinger band coming to play along with forcing the market short. Day chart rules indied a short and also the GMMA was confirming this, so short was shot.

Profit target of 1.7400 came from fib's on the day chart, therefore limit order was set.

Conclusion

Closed position in line with projected target @ 1.7404 at 9.18am London time to get a profit of 50 points

Total points since journal began

50 Points