Real reason why 99% lose - daytrading

[alvamwz]

In history there isn't any short-term daytrader warren buffet design billionaire, billionaire from forex with lowest length on transactions is 5 times and nearly 100 percent of transactions on his own account between 10 to 30 days.

But newbie traders deposits 100$ and believe I shall use 2% stop loss, that's 20 pips, I will be wealthy daytrader, Actually traders place minimum 0.01 lot, that's 1000$ so 2% is 20$ or 200 pips,
If price is 1.23 traders will attempt to guess 100 peaces of 1 cent (3rd and 4th decimal), If currency moves 2.60% in a month that's record, almost 100 percent of significant news do not move price even 1 CENT.

Almost 100 percent of egies are daytrading egies, in which they guess where part of 1 cent goes, and all of them fail (currencies do not go even 1 cent per day), plus they cant tummy 100 pips loss which is 1 CENT (leverage, not reality), plus they do not know they are placing 1000$ minimal in to market, if it moves 5% what is whole year thats 5% of 1000$ or 50$.
They'll ignore if price moves for 3 month to a single direction, or copper moving 28 month to one leadership after falling 5 years to other leadership, and as daytraders they may try hard even for 10 years to lose and guess inside 1 CENT where price will probably proceed now.

[mcnully]

In history there's not any brief term daytrader warren buffet style billionaire, billionaire from forex with lowest length on trades is 5 days and almost 100% of trades on his account between 10 to 30 days. But newbie traders deposits 100$ and think I will use 2% stop loss, that is 20 pips, I'll be rich daytrader, In reality traders place minimum 0.01 lot, that is 1000$ so 2% is 20$ or 200 pips, If price is 1.23 traders will try to figure 100 peaces of 1 cent (3rd and 4th decimal), If currency moves 2.60percent per month that is record, almost 100 percent... May I ask where is your figure from? 99% of daytraders lose? Lol

[Cmislaynogmoung]

Not this shit again...

[CmislayAmaujo]

Figuring out that the secret is nighttime trading...

[anpknipove]

So what's the real reason? Inform us since you claim to understand.

KP

[alvamwz]

Sorry for disturbing, I am dumb and outdated, there's 100% losers more than 20 years period only 0.0004% are profitable, I've seen accounts moving good for 3 decades then neglect, no account that's profitable daytrader over long term 10 decades. Can you show me account of daytrader that's profitable over 5 years on myfxbook, maybe I miss somethingI saw analysis of accounts in broker buy it is brief period 1 year maximum.

[Oxmichic]

Sorry for disturbing, I'm stupid and outdated, there's 100% losers over 20 years period only 0.0004% are profitable... ABSOLUTELY! Https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528681242.png

Only the professionals do make money consistently. I don't have the stats, but figured out it the winning traders have to be about 0.001%. I was wrong! It appears the winners are WITH TIMES LESS: 0.0004%! Https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528681243.pnghttps://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528681243.pnghttps://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528681243.png

Buddy, the brokers, will all jump on us now, because this advice, if public, will hurt their company badly...https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528681243.png

[limymomeo]

Triphop, that thread on the egy of champions is a great read!

[mcnully]

Sorry for disturbing, I am stupid and outdated, there's 100% losers more than 20 years interval only 0.0004% are profitable, I we seen accounts going good for 3 years then neglect, no account that's profitable daytrader over extended term 10 years. Would you show me account of daytrader that's profitable over five years on myfxbook, maybe I miss something, I saw analysis of accounts in broker buy it's brief interval 1 year max. So from myfxbook, do you really think traders that are making good money and always profitable will join to myfxbook?? Why? For ego possibly, come on that is not hard facts...!!
Anyhow have your beliefs and do not day trade lol

[lpammamobles]

Sorry for upsetting, I am stupid and outdated, there is 100% losers more than 20 years interval only 0.0004percent are profitable, I've seen accounts moving good for 3 decades then fail, no account that's profitable daytrader over extended term 10 decades. Would you show me account of daytrader which is profitable over 5 years on myfxbook, perhaps I miss somethingI watched analysis of accounts in broker buy it is short period 1 year maximum. Yes daytrading doesn't work in the long run (4 years or more), plain simple


source: 2000 hours of backtesting

[Begooxmsol]

There's just one successful daytrader I know https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528681244.png

[alvamwz]

Point is daytrading is unprofitable and hopeless, longterm trading on weeks/months is profitable and history support it.

[oxnoulin343]

Have You Been confusing Buffett with Soros? Buffett's company doesn't trade, they invest (though you can class that as position trading if you're being pedantic) and nowhere in Berkshire Hathaway's report do they mention positions in FX, as a substantial part of the investment holdings, they could use FX for hedging, that is it.

In relation to your points here is a slightly obsolete report from the French financial authorities citing that close on 90% of customers lose trading FX and CFDs, it is the reason why many governments (with the assistance of central banks), will finally kill the retail industry, firstly by limiting leverage to 1:50 (finally 1:30), then beginning to apply warnings such as on cigarette packs, eventually banning all advertisements.

Retail traders lose because they're terminally under capitalised, use excessive leverage, do not understand risk and chance, and are hopelessly out of their depth with no clue what they're up against. Consider this; on a coin toss bettors should shed 50% of the time over a random distribution and yet 90%of FX/CFD traders shed, Why is this? Don't answer, it is rhetorical.

http://www.amf-france.org/en_US/Actualites/Communiques-de-presse/AMF/annee_2014.html?docId=workspace://SpacesStore/96c52a14-3900-464f-8fff-7d4700ff37e3

[lpammamobles]

There's just one successful daytrader I know https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528681244.png moneyzilla!

[OXNGMAGOMA44]

quote moneyzilla! Is it a trader's title or anything else? I'm interested to know more!

[javilxule]

Data difference

[CmislayAmaujo]

In all honesty, I only day commerce when my stop gets hit...

[Oxmichic]

quote moneyzilla! Not there yet, bro! But soon, I might turn into the next day trader in Michi's set of successful day traders...https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528681244.png

[alvamwz]

Point is actual profitable traders use monthly chart and weekly for entrance and discount 3rd and 4th digit. For example price is moving out of 1.23 to 1.25 over 20 days Ill invest. If it drops 1 cent it's nothing to long duration, but for daytraders it's end of world.

[oxnoulin343]

Dear god, you whoppers are desperate to fool yourselves; undercapitalisation, resulting in excessive utilization of leverage, is among the prime motives retail gamblers/traders fail.

As for central banks and the authorities not wanting to kill retail trading, actually many do. Retail FX serves no purpose, it#8217;s viewed as reckless gambling. The money gambled and lost by retail punters would still stay in the banking system, if it wasn#8217;t dumped into the FX market.


I very much doubt central banks or other financial institutions will try to kill the retail industry because it is well-known that institutional traders exchange against retail traders so they might have no possible reason to want to kill it. I agree with the majority of the reasons you explained why many retail traders ultimately lose nevertheless being under capitalised is not among them. At the end of the day, even in case you cannot exchange a USD1,000 account profitably within a period of time (at least a year then having a USD100,000 account will not help. You may ultimately...

[Oxmichic]

A French jurisdiction report had losers at 90 percent and dropping on average? 8k each inside the six months they traded, my data has it nearer to 96%. Yep. Six months is the typical retail account signle top up longetivity. They blow away it for in between 1 day and 365 days, for instance.

But believe this; a series of coin tosses should come out in 50-50%. .now then, can you determine why the failure info is so negatively skewed? It cannot be because the market is made to benefit the market manufacturers or the house with other words? GotId be something else ?!? https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1531485201.jpg

[genssy11]

... there are no short cuts. You set yourself up for the long run, or you set yourself up to fail - easy as. I will think of one short-cut given that statistically 90% of traders are losing...
(1) Subscribe to people who have TE...
(2) Move the contrary of the open trades...

Note: this isn't a recommendation... https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1531485201.jpg

[jgp1258]

quote I can think of one short-cut given that statistically 90% of traders are losing... (1) Subscribe to those who own TE... (2) Go the opposite of their open trades... Note: this isn't a recommendation... https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1531485201.jpg Haha that might really work!
But we gotta account for spreads and other costs that might eat up profits. And tracking error too.
I can't loe the study now but theres this older research showing that one of the chief reason why active investors underperform passive investors is due to each of the prices and commissions they rack up.

[Chiopio]

If 99% drop in daytrading compared to reason is quite clear - Day Trading is for the losers! I read somewhere average Day Trader earns the minimum wage. Why would anybody do this day in day out I wonder why https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1531485201.jpg
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1531485201.jpg

[oxnoulin343]

It has several other problems beyond market making; believing in indiors and egies, lack of capital, leading to margin calls through the use of excessive leverage, not understanding probabilities and risk...


quote Yep. Six months is the average retail account signle top up longetivity. They blow away it for between 1 day and 365 days, for example. quote It cannot be because the market was designed to profit the market makers or the house with other words? Gotta be something else ?!? https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1531485202.jpg

[alvamwz]

Nope, it#8217;s closer to 70 percent shedding, but you need to take on board how that info could be twisted, for example, which might be the actual losing bets, but the quantity of shedding traders might be a lot higher. A French jurisdiction report had losers at 90 percent and losing on average #8364;8k each inside the six months that they traded, my data has it closer to 96%. But consider this; a collection of coin tosses should come out in 50-50%. .now afterward, can you figure out why the failure info is indeed negatively skewed? quote Coin throw is 50%-50% -
price 100 - see sell price of currency 50 pips DOWN is 50, buy BUY price is 52 - reduced payout by 2 pips
price 100 - watch sell price of currency 50 pips UP- BUY price is 152 - raised reduction by 2 pips
In 100 transactions - 50 optimistic (with reduced payout of 2 pips),
50 disadvantage (with increased reduction of 2 pips)

Psichology makes people thing it is equivalent 50 pips down 50 pips up however in reality it is 48% - 48%.

But in reality with 200 leverage, to take place 0.01 lot you need 6$ so 2 pips vigorish is 0.20$.

Where we capture chances of 3.33% vigorish on commerce.
On roulette vigorish is 2.70% - money last more on roulette afterward on forex but eventualy lose

Solution to problem is buy and hold egy long-term 1 commerce. Does this work? Ask warren buffet


this is buy doing 50 pips with stop reduction 50 pips (since 01.01.2015)
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1531485203.jpg

https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15314852142111006903.jpg

this is sell doing 50 pips with stop reduction 50 pips at the same prices (01.01.2015)
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15314852161382713356.jpg
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15314852182001723898.jpg

We watch expected payout will be allmoust same 0.30 pet commerce on buy and sell in series of over 1000 trades typical. Profit trades decresed, reduction trades increased so 50-50% isn't 50-50 as majority daytraders belive.

But what if we use long-term egy and compound profit during long-term tendencies since 01.01.2015?
Https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15314852191264649891.jpg

But suppose that if we reduce egy to buy and hold warren buffet style?

[bomjafemmeimo]

The only long term research done on daytrading was completed within a 15 year period in asia, it discovered that approximately 95% of people lost after a year, after 3 years this number increased to approximately 98 percent of traders and after 5years the failure rate was 99.7%.
I think its reasonable to say that if you are going to daytrade and expect to become profitable within a 5 year or two longer the chances are a tad against you.

[oxmpkxxy]

quote Haha that might actually work! But we gotta account for spreads and other costs that might consume profits. And tracking error also. I can't loe the study now but theres this old research demoning that one of the main reason why active investors underperform passive investors is due to each of the costs and commissions they rack up. The disperse eats up profit no matter the manner of trading you're using. Daytraders lose and so does everybody. Fixing forex like a 9 to 5 is the only method to profit in the short and long term. Someone even pointed out that time is objective and that is a really valid point that creates this thread quite moot. As I crown the O.P. of the thread as Sir. ShowUsYourProfit

[SENESCALEOK]

quote But we gotta account for spreads and other costs that might eat up profits.
. . .the main reason active investors underperform passive investors is due to each of the prices and commissions they rack up. At the dawn of time (market modeling time( that's ) that was called weak form efficiency.

For day trading, it means even if a person can extract sufficient signal to construct a winning egy, the signal is virtually always so weak that the expected value of a commerce is inside the bid/offer spread. That is how casinos work, and why anyone running any kind of casino needs their customers to exchange (or pull on slot handle/roll the dice) starting early and often.

[Xeoxxole]

quote ABSOLUTELY! Https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528681254.png Only the professionals do make money consistently. I don't have the stats, but figured out it the winning traders have to be around 0.001%. Well, I was wrong! It appears the winners are WITH TIMES LESS: 0.0004%! Https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528681254.pnghttps://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528681255.pnghttps://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528681255.png Buddy, the brokers, will all jump on us now, because this info, if public, will harm their business badly...https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528681255.png Yes, professional do of course much better but. . .they will also be losing cash https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528681255.png


FX hedge funds lost money in half the previous eight years, the Parker Global Index statistics showed.

Within this guide, they explain their egies are losing money because of randomness of the FX market:

https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/2017/03/17/currency-trading-egies-prove-fruitless-as-dollar-perplexes

In fact, you are right they are the only ones making consistently money. . .but not from their own trading. . .but from the fees they charge to their customers whether they win or they lose! https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528681255.pnghttps://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528681255.pnghttps://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528681255.pnghttps://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528681255.pnghttps://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528681255.pnghttps://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528681255.pnghttps://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528681255.pnghttps://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528681255.pnghttps://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528681256.png

[elpolo94]

quote which post is it? It's a HG for the purpose based on how I currently trade but it could currently be useless for you. I would have to search and attempt to dig for the post since I have no idea in which thread I'd read it. It was only a post I'd read about 1 year ago which sounded cool at the time but not amazingnevertheless, after studying a few more things since then and trading as I currently do, it is pretty much a HG in my end today. I might make a thread and discuss that idea in more detail however in the mean time, keep looking and develop your own tool box. As soon as you're better designed, a lot of things will seem as a HG anyway. In any situation, simply discover what works for you.

[imelgana]

quote It's a HG for my goal based on the way I currently trade but it may currently be useless for you. I'd need to search and try to dig the article because I have no idea where thread I had read it. It was just a post I had read about 1 year ago which seemed cool at the time but not amazingnevertheless, after studying some more things since trading and then as I currently do, it is pretty much a HG on my end now. I might make a thread and share that idea in more detail however at the mean time, keep searching and create your own tool box. As soon as you're... Yeah I'll continue searching for my HG as well.

[jgp1258]

quoteAt the dawn of time (market modeling period ( that's ) this was called weak form efficiency. For day trading, it means even if someone can extract sufficient sign to build a winning egy, the sign is almost always so weak that the expected price of a trade is within the bid/offer disperse. That is how casinos work, and why anyone running any kind of casino wants their clients to trade (or pull slot handle/roll the dice) beginning early and frequently. Oh? Are you referring to EMH?

I do not recall having that portion of this concept https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528681256.jpg
Is not EMH just about the rate of flow of data as well as the markets ability to price that in?

[Ssawz]

Figuring out that the secret is night trading.... Https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528681256.jpghttps://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528681256.jpg

or may as well try out weekend trading.
Excuses people come up with for their failures and lack of comprehension of this complex and dynamic system market is merely laughable.

Let me spill the secret right now OP yes you are right, day trading is rigged sport so is trading - profitable traders do not exist.
The entire sport is playing against us including the brokers.
I guess you think what you want to think.... but be careful you might just get what you wish for.

[gemox]

Thank you for sharing your view about the reasons that are supporting the failure of day trading traders. Day trading is just one of the popular trading styles in which a trader analyzes a trade for the entire day, but he makes the decision to close the trade at the end of the day with profit or shed. It means a day trader does not leave his position on a currency pair waiting immediately.

[alvamwz]

quote Cannot be bothered reading all the typical crap regurgitated on here but if you believe entering a trade is a 50 50 bet then give up today. If you buy resistance and market support the huge majority of those trades lose it usually reverses first before breaking through. If you do not understand how that relates to your 50 50 then give up today. Please do not expect me to react to you I have already wasted enough time. Thanks for your participation. It's 48-48 payout on short timeframes seeking to guess 3rd and 4th digit in every combination possible using daytrading where price moves not even 1 penny where every daytrader lose which 1st diagram explains, and doing reverse of price also establish that doing reverse of losing trades lose long duration doing short term egy (400$ bank goes to 0)

But if we use only 1st and 2nd digit (waithing months not days) of price and compound at which price moves moves over 1,2,3 cents in long-term trend with higher stop reduction 3 years looks like this.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528681265777083313.jpg

[alvamwz]

Long term trends:
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15286812662115739018.jpg


GBP/CAD 200 pips renko, drawdown was 6 cents. So compounding each 200 pips with stop loss 300. When account is doubled on leverage 200?

https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15286812681175747094.jpg

[slmexxao]

It is largely luck. . I made an experiment and traded at night for a month-no difference

[Givinily69]

Er, do you even code bro? quote EAs never work in the long term, my brah. The best traders in the world do not use EAs. They trade manually or utilize algorithms worth millions of dollars that the everyday person would not even dream of using, let alone have you.

[kmasnoyamsk]

Research for you

https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/bitcoin-talk-and-cryptocurrencies/176-volume-alerter-ninja-trader.html

[alvamwz]

So it is not significant does trader do long term or short term - that they will shed. In any data over time there is 50%-50% without disperse so it is not significant do trader do buy or sell. Probability changes based on stop loss and profit target.

However, what makes me think how to profit in short term daily on probability events, there is only one mathematical edge to exploit - standard deviation of multiple independent events.

When first time tested this edge it was too much profitable typical 400-600 pips per day so I canceled it. It was to fast so I discarged it believing it is impossible.

3075 pips in seven days. That is impossible but it is based on standard deviation of multiple events.

https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15286812702110582294.jpg