BOE and ECB

[MENOK]

Ok friends. What do you think about the BOE and the ECB? Are you leaving any orders open before the press releases come out? What is your forecast? I think GBP/USD is going to push down...

[clauali]

I don't think there's any change, if I screw up trying, I'll at least die happy.

[MENOK]

I see GBP/USD falling until it clearly exceeds the level of 1.9670.

[OmiolBokixxa]

And now we also have to worry about Bernanke! Is there not a single breath with so much volatility?

[gieguipkxu]

We are right in the fall of 38.2% of the climb stage from 1.70 to 2.11. It could be a good time to buy with a take profit about 23.6%.

[sho0n]

The BOE recently comes with a mixed tone. One day it sounds hawkish, the other dovish. It’s as if they don’t even know what to do. That’s why I prefer to wait for the release before entering any operation. Entering before a high-impact news is almost like betting on a casino. If you’re right, great. If not, your SL takes it to spread.

[susaniusi]

I have a pending order just below 1,9650, waiting for a break with force. I don’t like to operate in uncertainty, but if the level breaks, there I come in with decision. Also, the ECB is generating downward pressure on the euro, which indirectly also gives the dollar strength. GBP/USD can continue to fall.

[alsi12]

Does anyone really think the BOE is going to move tabs this week? They’re more focused on not sinking the economy than on controlling inflation. I bet everything stays the same and the market gets stuck in a range.

[alicayumoz]

What is happening with the ECB is that they are trapped between the fear of recession and inflation that does not end up yielding. Hard to make drastic decisions. I think the key will be more in the tone of the statement than in the real measures.

[chespklo]

GBP/USD is in critical zone. Technically it has room to keep falling, but everything will depend on how the market reacts to the data. I prefer not to anticipate. I expect the market reaction and act with confirmation.

[MENOK]

I also think it can break down. If there are no surprises, the downward pressure will continue. But yes, it is better to be patient and not fall into the trap of guessing the movement.

[gaga3]

Those who operate before the press release without stops are brave... or unconscious... a 100-pipe candle in seconds won't forgive.

[femgogc]

It seems to me that GBP/USD has already made its journey for now. I see it more in consolidation mode until new fundamental momentum. BOE decisions and the ECB tone may give us that push, but in the meantime... calm down.

[Camilahemmmi]

The ECB is a teacher in not saying anything for 45 minutes. Then they release a phrase and boom! the euro moves like crazy. You have to be aware not only of the statement but also of the press conference. That’s where the juice is.

[jomgicaslany14]

I have two scenarios ready. If the BOE is more aggressive, I enter in short EUR/GBP. If it is softer, I pass in GBP/USD. The important thing is to have the plan done before, not improvise at the moment.

[labilas]

The correlation with bonds must also be taken into account. If UK rates go up, GBP will be strengthened even if the BOE does not raise rates immediately. Many look only at the graph and forget about the macroeconomic context.

[molla]

The truth is that the market is over-analyzing everything. Sometimes the best analysis is to do nothing. Too many opinions, too many variables. Waiting for confirmation is not cowardice, it is intelligence.

[kolgob]

I get tired of people who always expect an explosive movement after the BOE. Haven’t you seen that lately everything ends up in range? A lot of noise, a few nuts.

[Mispkog]

The current context is very sensitive. Any word out of place can cause an unexpected movement. So, my strategy these days is to operate less, observe more.

[neilhan]

I do not understand how there are still traders who enter full lot before the ECB without coverage. That is financial suicide. Central banks are not predictable. They are manipulators by definition.

[MENOK]

I feel like going short with everything, but yes, it sounds wiser to wait. Thanks for the warnings. Maybe an entry after the initial reaction will be smarter.

[mome423]

The second movement is usually the most reliable. The first one is just noise and stopped hunted. I learned that after many losses by wanting to be the first in everything.

[lekilaygofio]

I'd like the BOE to be surprised, but I doubt it. They're playing no waves. If there's any change, it'll be in language, not in rates.

[Fmanciscolwopac]

I have a strategy that worked well for me: I wait for the statement, I let the market do its crazy, and I get into the setback. It doesn’t always come out perfect, but it minimizes the risk a lot.

[agmaynm19]

It should also be borne in mind that the market already discounts part of the movement. Sometimes the price has already moved before the release. And those who enter the news, arrive late.

[papembin]

GBP/USD in daily chart is breaking structure. If you lose the 1.9600 hard, you make your way to 1.9450 easy. There is only one BOE push or ECB screw-up missing.

[mokle]

Sometimes it doesn't matter what the central bank says, but how the market interprets it. You may be right in the analysis, and still lose the transaction by a bad timing.

[Mlsh]

The candle of the first five minutes tells me everything I need to know. If there is real force, it confirms itself. If it is false, it is quickly reversed.

[maseo]

By the way, is anyone following the swaps? Because the spreads are also influencing a lot lately. GBP is losing appeal if the guys don’t go up anymore.

[amiguilam]

Some are too focused on the GBP/USD pair, but watch EUR/GBP. It could give better opportunities depending on how both banks speak. Sometimes the best play is on the cross, not on the direct pair.

[MENOK]

Interesting what they say about EUR/GBP, I didn’t have it on the radar. I’m going to analyze it too, it may be cleaner than GBP/USD. Thanks for the suggestion, the truth is that it helps to see other perspectives.

[imene5]

Not everything is technical or fundamental. Feeling also plays. If the market wants to sell the pound, it will do it even if the BOE raises types. Never underestimate the strength of a narrative.

[sesacu]

I prefer to stay neutral before guys' decisions. Too unpredictable, too fast. A bad entry and spread eats your SL before you can blink.

[gugu]

These types of events are ideal for experienced traders, but very dangerous for new ones. My advice: if you are a novice, look and learn. You will have your turn.

[Agmayn6666]

Better wait for the announcement and see the market reaction. Nothing worse than going in with assumptions and the market shuts your mouth. I learned to respect the fundamentals, even when the technician says something else.

[cmislinaamoxs]

I think we're all too obsessed with what they're going to say. Sometimes, the best move is to operate after everyone's already positioned and the market calms down. That's where the smart money is.

[jaioxmes]

I focused so much on anticipating the BOE once I lost three trades followed by entering too soon. Since then, I only operate confirmed reactions. No guessing.

[Canlamumcill]

BOE, ECB, Fed... they all play the same game: controlling expectations, not necessarily acting. Understanding that helped me not fall into the trap of “surprise declarations.”

[KaisemCC]

It feels good to see a thread where not everything is “buy now” or “sell everything”. Good analysis, good ideas. So it’s nice to participate. Keep sharing. We all learn something new.

[vaxxejo11]

Be careful to think that everything is going to be like the last time. Central banks change their tone very quickly. What was bassist last month, can now be bullish. It all depends on the context.

[MENOK]

I took note of everything. I didn’t really expect so much level of analysis when I opened the thread. I’m glad to have done it. Thank you all for the contributions. Tomorrow will be an interesting day.