View Full Version : There is no such thing as technical analysis
I agree. This is what I wrote today in another thread: Actually, real-time graphics and all computer-based systems are a fairly recent phenomenon in terms of their massive use. Furthermore, there is not much evidence to show that trading only with graphics generates consistent benefits for most people. Seeing the amount of trash strategies that are published out there based on graphics, which don’t work at all, the graphics are just a nice representation of what already happened (too late to act).
Technical analysis works great with my strategies. It gives me a clear advantage and puts the odds in my favor. Obviously, no system is perfect, so I use risk management, position size and capital management to protect me when things go against. In my case, I use advanced patterns and market structure as a base. The important thing is not to guess the future, it is to handle the present with real odds.
FemCagevig
05-03-2025 11:48,
I just read some of your posts a few months ago. Honestly, you’re the last ones who should give their opinion about technical analysis or any other aspect of trading. You didn’t show even once that you understand it or know how to use it correctly. You’re another one of those who after losing gets frustrated, complains about everything and blames the technical analysis instead of admitting that you didn’t understand it. And now everyone else who doesn’t understand it will come to make chorus with you, because if you don’t succeed, then it must be all lies, right? Typical.
kampll69
05-03-2025 11:52,
Look, that's why you don't have to learn halfway. Any data that can be graphed can show a tendency, even the minutes that people watch your videos on YouTube. But if you don't know why you trace the lines or what you're measuring, then you have no idea what you're doing. Before saying that everything is a farce, I answered this: why do you draw lines of tendency? What do they indicate? What are the different types and what do they mean? If you can't answer those questions well, then you don't have the authority to say that technical analysis doesn't work.
I never said that the brokers have scammed me or that the market is random. Don’t make things up. What I’m pointing out is the fallacy of technical analysis. It’s an illusion, something the brain wants to see. I don’t blame anyone, because I didn’t fail. I’m a very profitable fundamental investor. Making a living with technical analysis is a dream for most. I know it’s not a popular opinion because it pokes the bubble at many.
Or we could say that the technical analysis can be applied to anything that has the shape of a graph, from the market to the weather data or your YouTube visits. Everything that can be graphed, can be analyzed technically. Don’t you find it wonderful?
Some of it works, others don’t. I dedicated a whole year and it seemed like a lot of patternless coincidences. You can apply strict risk management, yes, but only a handful of people manage to do it consistently. The good thing is that there is another way to operate: fundamental analysis. It’s more work, but I don’t regret having changed. I haven’t used technical analysis for almost a year and my results improved a lot.
albempklm85
05-03-2025 12:10,
Look, if you're as profitable as a fundamental investor, excellent, but come to say that technical analysis doesn't work just because it didn't work for you, it's being a fool. And if you know so much, you wouldn't be here arguing with people who, according to you, don't know anything.
ignacio9molina
05-03-2025 12:14,
The title of this thread just tells me that you don't know how to use the technical analysis, and if you're going to come and criticize it, at least I understood that it's half science, half art.
You are a “very profitable fundamental investor,” but you don’t know how to interpret market behavior. It sounds contradictory, doesn’t it? Very lucky with that.
They told me that Santa doesn't exist, but every year presents appear, so I don't believe anything anymore.
It seems to me that you are generalizing because of your personal experience. There are many traders who use technical analysis and earn well, just like those who use fundamental. The important thing is to find what works for you and exploit that to the fullest.
alokso.lucay3fomex
05-03-2025 12:31,
Most of it takes years to discover that nothing they put on a chart has a real impact on the price. Technical analysis is the biggest deception ever sold to the financial public.
The value of technical analysis is that it studies market psychology. It’s a way of predicting trends based on collective behavior. It’s not infallible, but it helps prevent you from operating with hunch or impulse, which is what makes the majority lose.
oxmay291291
05-03-2025 12:39,
Of course it exists! It works for me: Please add more indicators, I can still see the real price.
xXMagwolfXx
05-03-2025 12:43,
You say you were a “strong believer” in technical analysis, but how can anyone be a believer if he didn’t win with it? Your contradiction is tremendous. If you used it successfully, you wouldn’t abandon it. If you didn’t use it well, you weren’t a real believer. So, what are you?
For me, any strategy based on traditional indicators such as mobile media, RSI, stochastics, etc., is rubbish. They only show what has already happened, and in many cases, too late.
anpkniolisoksanches
05-03-2025 12:51,
At least you say “in my opinion.” But saying that indicators are not only useful shows that you don’t know how they are used. The problem is not technical analysis, but who uses it and how.
Minlxomena
05-03-2025 12:56,
If the technical analysis doesn't work for you, look for something else that does. And if trading isn't for you, it's all right. I did whatever works for you. That's the only truth.
I'm really surprised at the number of people who defend technical analysis as if it were religion. It's looking at little candles and waiting for something to happen. Is that professional? No, that's superstition with nice graphics. I operate with fundamentals, events, macroeconomic data. That's real, not little lines that are cut as if it were astrology.
To all those who insulted me for saying that the technical analysis is useless: thank you. They confirmed that it hurts them to stick the bubble. I do not care to be right, but I find it unfair that so many novices swallow the tale that only with candles they will live from trading.
If the technical analysis really worked, there wouldn’t be so many courses, gurus or “mentors” selling you magic methods. It works just enough to make it look real, but not so much that you can trust your money without thinking.
I don't understand why you're so offended. If it works out for you guys, great, keep it up. I just gave my opinion, I didn't attack anyone. Or did it hurt because you know I'm right?
For me, the most ridiculous thing about technical analysis is to think that millions of people are seeing the same line of support and are going to act the same way. Do they really think the banks are waiting for your RSI to reach 70 to sell?
I love how everyone feels touched. Is there fear of accepting that years of drawing lines were in vain? I don’t say anyone wins with that, I say it’s the minority. The vast majority loses because they are pursuing a method with no real basis.
There is a difference between operating with strategy and playing guessing with Japanese candles. I prefer the first thing. The technique without understanding the basics is like driving a car without knowing where you are going.
I used technical analysis for two years and all I gained was frustration, until I went on to follow real data, I don't need to predict the future, just understand the present, and that graphs don't show it.
Sometimes I wonder: if the patterns are repeated as much as they say, why is no one millionaire with that? Maybe because the only thing they repeat are the excuses.
Those who win with technician do not do it for the system, but because they have military discipline and a cold head like steel. But that is not sold in any course. That is why so many fall and so few survive.
Where are the real evidence that the technical analysis works in the long term? I don’t want captures, I want audited statements. Ah, there isn’t. How convenient, isn’t it?
There is one thing that never fails: when someone defends something so much, it is because it depends on it to live. That’s why the advocates of technical analysis take it so personal. Because if it falls, they run out of faith.
The problem is not the tool, it's how they use it. But they don't want to recognize it because it's easier to blame the market. I see it clearly: graphics are useful, but they're not the magic answer that many believe.
I don’t come to impose anything, but if you’re going to blindly trust what “seems” that happened before, you’re screwed. The market has no memory, it’s hungry.
It's funny to see traders with 20 indicators open on the same chart. It looks like a Christmas tree. If you need so many filters, maybe the problem isn't analysis... but you.
Is it so difficult to accept that technical analysis is just a part of the game? It is not the Bible, it is another tool. Whoever turns it into religion ends up praying while seeing how capital is going.
Let's see if we understand each other: if you draw a line on a YouTube traffic chart and see a pattern, is that also tradable? Because that's what happens when you think every line is meaningful.
I can give you five graphs where the pattern was perfect after it happened, but that doesn't pay the bills, the problem isn't the technical analysis, it's using it as a crystal ball.
I have seen more logic in the decisions of a dice than in some “price action” systems. And then they complain because they lose money. What did they expect?
If you need a mobile average to tell you whether to buy or sell, then you're not thinking. You're obeying. And the market doesn't reward the obedient, it rewards the intelligent.
Do you want a real test? Take a technical system and test it in unlabeled data. You will realize that your “pattern” is useless. Everything is clear... after the disaster.
I'm not a better trader for using fundamentals, but I'm more aware of what I'm doing. I'd rather lose knowing why, than win believing it was magic.
The best thing about this thread is to see how technical analysis gurus disappear when asked for consistency. Lots of noise, few nuts.
The market does not follow predictable rules, it follows flows of money, politics and collective psychology. If you think you can summarize that with lines, luck in your path.
It doesn't bother me that they use technical analysis, it bothers me that they sell it as if it were salvation, because those who fall afterwards are the new ones, those who still believe that everything is black or white.
Do you think the Bank of England is looking at your stocking to decide its monetary policy? It’s funny how people think they’re the center of the market.
I also used Fibonacci, harmonic patterns, RSI, MACD and a long etcetera. You know what I won? More doubts. The day I left all that and started reading economic reports was the day I really started winning.
Do you want to improve? Start thinking. Stop following lines drawn by others. Freedom is not in the system, it is in your head.
And if you're losing, it's time to question yourself, maybe the problem isn't the market, but your method.
So much technical analysis talk, and yet no one here lives 100% of this without selling courses.
If the technical analysis is so good, why is there no more institutional funds using it as a base strategy? Because it is not supported without context.
I also wanted to believe. And for a long time I held on to the lines as if they were salvation. But in the end, reality slapped me a good slap: the market is something else.
Understand the economic cycles, the monetary policy and the feeling of the market. That does move price. The rest, it is decoration.
Real professionals use everything: technical, fundamental and even quantitative. Amateurs choose only what their ego accepts.
To say that technical analysis is useless is not a provocation, it is a warning, he who wants to understand, he who understands, he who does not, he who keeps drawing.
You want to know why you're stuck? Because you keep looking for patterns where there's nothing. The market is not a magic painting, it's a war of interest.
I don't argue anymore, the results speak for themselves, and my results improved when I dropped the chart and grabbed the macro reports.
I am not here to make friends, I am here to say what others do not encourage: technical analysis is a mirage that keeps the majority occupied while the minority wins.
You can still believe in the indicators, or you can start to understand how the economy works, the choice is yours, but don't say after I didn't warn you.
It's easy to make fun of those who criticize the technical analysis. The hard thing is to admit that they've been losing for years to use it badly. And no, it's not the market that has you as a child.
You know what most people's problem is, they're looking for security where there's only chance, and the technical analysis, by itself, is never going to give you certainties.
I don't want to convince anyone. I'm just tired of seeing illusions sell out with graphics. Less courses, more critical thinking.
Not everything in trading is science, but that doesn't justify you turning it into superstition. Misused technical analysis is exactly that: high frequency superstition.
If you came all this way waiting for me to change my mind, I'm sorry. I don't believe in technical analysis as an autonomous system, and nothing has shown me otherwise.
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