Why Technical Analysis Wins

[emengwz428]

This thread is for those who can give proof of why technical analysis is better than fundamental analysis. I am interested to know your opinions. Greetings Do not forget to visit my blog: https://from-zero-to-hero . net

[jackoo7]

It's like throwing a coin in terms of predicting the market with a setup. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

[jomge]

In my opinion, this is not the right question. It is not about the type of analysis, but about whether a significant statistical advantage can be measured. Personally, I use any form of analysis that helps me find that advantage. The key is to test setups at least 10,000 times to prove that they actually work.

[gamganlua1967]

Quoting This thread is for those who can give proof of why technical analysis is better than fundamental analysis. I am interested in knowing their opinions. What do you understand by proof?... live operations? accounts verified in Myfxbook?

[Oxmixx]

Technical analysis (price action, supports and resistances, supply and demand, Fibonacci setbacks, trend lines

[Aumyhgwz]

Why limit yourself to a single type of analysis? The only thing that matters is to find an advantage, test it and exploit it.

[Angelcokl]

But the fundamental analysis gives you the reason behind the price movement. You can anticipate, for example, a rise in rates and know how the price could react. The problem of the technician is that he only looks at the past. The fundamental tries to foresee the future, with macro and political information.

[Jlleox1234]

Frankly, I am not interested in comparing technical and fundamental analysis. Both are essential. I use price action as a main strategy, that is technical, but I also respect fundamental events. I even close all my operations before important news. So I protect my account.

[emengwz428]

Quoting What do you understand by proof?... live operations? verified accounts on Myfxbook? I mean anything you consider a valid test. Personally I am not so interested in the "why", but the "how." Don't forget to visit my blog: https://from-zero-to-hero . net

[moisesanpknn]

This thread, like many others, is doomed. Show me someone profitable using technical analysis and surely also uses other forms of analysis. The one that depends only on RSI and Fibonacci, is probably in demo or dreaming of being profitable one day.

[Placi2]

Until today, it has never been proven that technical analysis is superior to fundamental. So this question will only get opinions, not scientific or logical evidence.

[Mmpove]

The price action without context makes no sense. Draw trend lines and see how the market reacts can have value, but without foundation, you are half blind. If there were an infallible technical pattern, who would take the other side of the transaction?

[Ivan97]

Quoting Guybaker Why limit yourself to a single type of analysis? The only thing that matters is to find an advantage, test it and exploit it. That's called having discipline with your system.

[femoco]

Quoting I mean anything that you consider a valid test. With enough data, you can prove that certain setups have statistical probability of working. I have two systems, one in binary and one in EURUSD spot. Both were tested with thousands of operations. That's what gives me confidence.

[bmayn]

Quoting That's called having discipline with your system. And what does methodology have to do with discipline?

[Joana]

The fundamental analysis is to guess what others will do before they do it. No one has the data ahead of time, so how can a logical person risk their money like that? Instead, the technician measures what is really going on. No money is made with fantasies.

[lxiski]

Quoting The fundamental analysis is to guess what others will do before they do it... Do you live on trading? I prefer the quantitative, something I can test, see correlation and measure. Without that, I find it hard to trust any system.

[amcagayn16]

Hi. I never try to predict the future. I focus on mathematics, not on economics. The fundamentals are too subjective for me. I prefer to operate what I see, at the moment. I don’t need tons of historical data, just to see the present well.

[oxnwlhengmix]

I'm never trying to predict the future... and how do you gain confidence if you don't test your strategies on earlier data?

[aangemsokamvelo]

Good question. I use historical data only to test theories. If they seem feasible, I do months of demo to adjust them live. My goal is consistency. What works on paper often fails in real. That’s why I test everything patiently before using real money.

[fmlllmen]

For me, the backtest with many data is more efficient than forward testing in demo, which takes real time. If done well, historical analysis allows testing thousands of cases and getting a clear view of the drawdown and the robustness of the system.

[felix.aguimme]

Everyone has their criteria to have confidence. But eye: putting real money changes everything. That's where you cross fears and mental mistakes. That's why it's also key to study risk psychology while testing systems.

[albempg11]

You're right about emotions. I've been doing this for more than 10 years, and I also counted cards in blackjack. I now live trading with my own capital. The challenge is constant, but it's worth it.

[oxmlapega]

Now I understand why you need so much history, if you come from card counting. I, on the other hand, use little data. My strategy is automated to operate live, without depending on the past.

[PaulNeck]

I'm doing exactly the same thing as you, testing theories, adjusting, looking for consistency, it's a long way, but it's the most solid way to build trust and real results.

[emengwz428]

Actually, I didn’t expect much debate. Some comments seem drawn from a holy war between technicians and fundamentals. Relax, we’re all here to earn money, not medals! I don’t seek to evangelize anyone, I’m just interested in gathering opinions that support the use of technical analysis effectively. But seeing how heated this gets, maybe I’ll touch writing another post on tolerance...

[emengwz428]

For those who cling to fundamental analysis as if it were the absolute truth: how many times did the market do the exact opposite of what the news suggested? Too many. I don’t say it’s useless, but pretending to predict everything with macro data is like wanting to navigate with compass in the middle of a storm: it sounds nice until you’re lost.

[emengwz428]

I love that some say “technical analysis has never been tested” as if we were in a quantum physics laboratory. This is trading, not pure science. The test is simple: if after 1,000 operations you have a technical strategy with positive performance, it works. There is nothing more to talk about.

[emengwz428]

Whoever says that the technical analysis is “divination”, clearly has never spent hours in front of the chart adjusting inputs, SL, liquidity and reaction zones. Guessing is launching without plan. Reading the market is another story, and the price speaks... if you know how to hear it.

[emengwz428]

Everyone's waiting for Powell, for Lagarde, for the employment data, and in the meantime, the price has already moved, and if your plan depends on what a central banker says, you're in the wrong business.

[emengwz428]

Let's see, it's not about technical vs fundamental. It's about what you understand best and how you apply it. Some do magic with Japanese candles, others with inflation reports. But saying that one cancels out the other is like discussing whether a knife or a fork is better. It depends on what you're going to eat.

[emengwz428]

Do you know why I prefer technical analysis? Because it’s objective. I don’t care if the Fed raises or lowers rates; if the chart gives me input, I enter. That prevents me from falling into the trap of emotions or scandalous headlines. The price is my compass.

[emengwz428]

The only thing I'm clear about is that traders who live out of this don't break their heads with philosophical debates. They use what gives them money, period. So let's stop playing academic and focus on the practical.

[emengwz428]

If the technical analysis were as useless as some say, there would not be thousands of traders who have been living alone with price action for years. I myself stopped following news years ago and my profitability improved noticeably.

[emengwz428]

The funny thing is that those who criticize technical analysis the most understand it the least. They use RSI crossed with MACD and already believe that that’s all. There’s a world behind a simple candle. The problem is that it takes time, patience and judgment, and that they don’t teach it on YouTube.

[emengwz428]

I have nothing against fundamental analysis... except it made me lose more money than a bad EA. Ever since I focused 100% on the price stock, things changed. Less stress, more clarity.

[emengwz428]

If you don't think the technical analysis works, try it for yourself. Take a simple pattern and do 100 demo operations. Then I came back and told me if it was magic or statistics.

[emengwz428]

I give you my history of operations, but if you're not able to do the same thing and record your results, then you're not in a position to give your opinion. The market punishes ignorance and rewards discipline.

[emengwz428]

I don’t like to depend on “why” the market moves. I prefer to understand “how” it is moving and “when” I get up. That’s what the technical analysis gives me. The fundamentals are interesting, but I don’t get paid the bills.

[emengwz428]

Many who talk about fundamental analysis do so with an air of superiority... until you see their accounts burned... if it goes well with your system, great... but don't come and tear down what works for others just because it doesn't work for you.

[emengwz428]

I use technical analysis because it is universal. It doesn’t matter if I’m operating EUR/USD, gold or cryptos. The language of candles is the same. That gives me an advantage that the fundamental cannot give me, because every market has different news.

[emengwz428]

I once relied on an economic input to enter the market, and everything pointed to the fact that it would go up... and 150 pips fell against me in half an hour, and that was the last time I blindly trusted a calendar.

[emengwz428]

Many novices believe that technical analysis is just lines and drawings. How wrong they are. It’s a way to read the market, to anticipate human reactions. And that, friend, never goes out of style.

[emengwz428]

Do you know what profitable traders I know have in common? Everyone uses some kind of technical analysis. Some combine with fundamentals, others don’t. But none ignores the price.

[emengwz428]

If you wait for scientific evidence of something as volatile as the market, maybe you should study meteorology, not trading. Here it’s about probabilities, not certainties. And technical analysis, well used, improves those odds.

[emengwz428]

I don’t need to convince anyone. While others keep arguing on forums, I keep adding up pips. That’s all I care about. And that’s what the technical analysis gives me. (continued in the next block...