fxswing - Trading notes, analysis and market thoughts

[beaalbem]

I'm setting up this thread, to post my trading notes, analysis, ideas on markets, results, opinions in my mood and everything is related to trading.

I am a different full time trader, investing in a 5 figure real account. I don't have anything to market or to establish. First objective of this thread is to serve as a personal tool.
Trading is a job, it is tough work, and plogical capital is of paramount importance to mepersonally, so I will not have conflicts with other men and women. If you can not behave as if you would at an actual work environment, I'll prevent you from posting in this thread.

I am receptive to positive comments/questions from different traders, don't hesitate, but don't forget that google is your friend, before asking evident things https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528697745.jpg

[Alba]

Bounce period?
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528697753.jpg

[Alba]

USD/CHF demoning upside activity?
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528697862154165073.jpg
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/152869786576859760.jpg

[Alba]

Eurusd in breakout mode, seems like we'll attempt take the 1.4447.
Potential goal could be at 1.4621. The 61.8percent of the 2008 move retracement.

1.4412 is the monthly HVA and should function as support.
1.4344 is the weekly HVA and might be support also.

Market is clearly long about the daily/weekly.
Only longs are allowed, attempting to buy dips, and milk new highs.

Note: market frequently change direction after vaions.
Particular care needs to be taken when we begin to see reversal patterns, especially on the daily time period. But so far, nothing to be concerned about.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528697772897073.jpg

[Alba]

Potential short-term targets:

- 1.4621 The 61.8% retracement of the 2008 range.
- 1.4704 The 161.8percent fib expansion of the previous 2 swing points 1.3748-1.4339
- 1.4719 The 2008 week 51 swing stage. This is critical as it might open the door to further upside down and a possible retest of eurusd all time high above 1.60.

[Alba]

Market ought to combine today.
Opec and beige book are the 2 events today.
Long opportunity could be loed between the prior annual high 1.4447 and also the monthly value high in 1.4412.

Yesterday's new annual high at 1.4535 created the week34 1.4046 the new swing low, substituting the prior week25 1.3748 low. This is equivalent to this 78.985 high in the US dollar index, the 930.60 low in gold and 58.30 in crude oil (can be made 67.04 if crude get back above 75.00 post opec assembly )

I will let the market fix the new swing high. This will happen when a new high won't be made for the next 3 periods (days or months depending on the chart and growth )

Market is still trending up, making HH and HL on daily and weekly.

About the daily / weekly chart, re-testing of this 1.4300 zone would be a first signal of a potential deeper pullback.
Risk would then be adjusted, to take into account a potential deeper pullback.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528697776762135835.jpg

[Alba]

Almost at goal 1.4621, would need another little push.

Let's see if we consolidate now, or continue to drive higher.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15286977791088082393.jpg

[Alba]

Watching development in gold. Nice station / bull flag.

We're the 2nd Thursday of the quarter, switching to December future contracts today.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528697751.jpg

[Alba]

Nicely defined channel at SP 500 4H, entering resistance now
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528697782789687258.jpg

[Alba]

Crude oil extended chance

targets 72.30 and 75.00
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528697753.jpg

[Alba]

Long
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15286977841011751009.jpg

[Alba]

1.4621 Target hit overnight

[Alba]

Flat - waiting for extended re-entry.

1.4494 VPOC could act as support.
1.4535-1.4494 could be a good buy zone.

This week range so far 1.4298-1.4628 - 330 pips range
Midpoint in 1.4463

Former high at 1.4447

We struck the 61.8% of their 2008 range at 1.4621, rejection can send us back to the 50% stage 1.4183 along with the 31.8% in 1.3746, at the upcoming days weeks.

Yesterday feels like a supply day with good short entry.
If I could trade counter tendency (that I can not by my trading rules), I'd have entered short preceding 1.4614

It's Friday! TGIF - No need to induce the trades...
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528697788297335267.jpg

[Alba]

Viewing SP 500 consolidating above the channel.

Below 1038.50 we could tank back in the channel.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15286977911401351319.jpg

[Alba]

Markets at inflexion point, watching the channels for hints...
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528697759.jpg
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528697760.jpg
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528697761.jpg

[Alba]

No More US data on Monday.

There is a window potential for profit taking after the current US data and earlier Tuesday's US open.

50% Retracement would put us 1.4463, are an evaluation of the former high at 1.4447.

[Alba]

We jumped from the 50 percent to the 61.8% 2008 retracement throughout the last 6 sessions, 1.4183 - 1.4621.

50%-61.8% Midpoint gives us 1.4402 only below last month value at 1.4412.

[Alba]

Let us see the response here
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15286977931033706300.jpg

[Alba]

EURUSD opened below Friday's value and trading lower. It is in pullback mode.

The 1.4494 - 1.4412 zone could provide a service bounce zone.
EURUSD will stay weak unless it could get back above 1.4580, were it might acquire neutral and 1.4620 where it will get it bullish standing back to the daily.

Over the weekly, we opened in last week value, so nothing changed, it is neutral to bullish, unless we could breach 1.4486 and trade below it.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15286977951455566149.jpg

[Alba]

No US data on Monday.

There's a window potential for profit taking after today's US data and earlier Tuesday's US open.

50% Retracement would put us at 1.4463, would be an evaluation of the former high at 1.4447. In fact it's 1.4466, with the latest high made . Will watch that since it's slightly below last week worth but not that deep in to pullback land.

Notice that 3 days breakdown is 1.4467

[Alba]

https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1529756908.jpg

Bear snare below 1.4758?

Time will tell...
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1529756957156619968.jpg

[Alba]

For Friday's Session Watch 1.4814 and 1.4837 as support.
1.4899 the developing POC and 1.4939 Weekly LVA as target.

To the disadvantage 1.4792 Monthly HVA and 1.4719 previous monthly swing high.

[Alba]

Do not overlook yesterday's signs.

A bullish engulfing pattern change is not something to take lightly.
Last thing I'd be today and next days is to be short EURUSD.

Two key aims for me today:

1.4899 The monthly growing POC
1.4939 The weekly LVA

1.5031/1.5033 Weekly POC and VPOC is likely too far to be reach today, but weekly? ...

Price back below 1.4792 would invalidate the bullish tone.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1529756962855491569.jpg

[Alba]

USDX looking weak (yeah, I'm a genius I know https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1529756914.jpg), using a possible good brief signal for next week.

Notice how each time USDX is forming weekly market construction lows (3 candles MSL), the next week market interrupts the MSL and crater through the MSL to make a new low.

Let us see whether this happens next week too https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1529756914.jpg


3 candles breakout to the upside would invalidate the pattern, and signal a possible major movement, but we're at this point, yet https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1529756914.jpg




PS: FOMC meeting on 3-4 November.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1529756914.jpg
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1529756965725964624.jpg

[Alba]

Very nice daily EURUSD chart with monthly fibs on it.

Notice how we bounced in the 38.2% -61.8% zone.
We've got easy parameters there for November trading.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15297569671839528611.jpg

[camllloxncho96]

Really nice daily EURUSD chart with monthly fibs on it.

Notice how we bounced at the 38.2percent -61.8% zone.
We've got simple parameters there for November trading. Have a look at how nicely on the hourly chart, the fibs functioned equally as support and resistance.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1529756970535490710.jpg

[Alba]

New actual new information on the market, still no new high.

Will let the market take daily low and 3 days low as support, before looking for reversal.

We are still above the 50% retracement of Monday's move at 1.4936.

If we go lower will watch 1.4918 (last week high) as potential assistance.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15286978311302604184.jpg

[Alba]

Take note that Latest high low swing 1.5063 - 1.4627 is 1.4845...

Could we close the week above 1.4844 former monthly ?
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528697834516598400.jpg

[Alba]

Let's see if OIL can bounce from here...
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15286978382021274117.jpg

[Alba]

Market gapped above the breakout point at 1.4901.

Seeing the weekly HVA above 1.5017.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528697841341266990.jpg

[Alba]

Market looks stuck in an 1.4844 - 1.4968 range...

We are trading a lot below per week LVA 1.4892, this may indie a future lower move, possibly to examine the monthly LVA 1.4686.

Market is rejecting the monthly HVA at 1.4968, even when the weekly HVA is greater at 1.5017.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15286978451976503420.jpg

[Gaxxaghem]

Well I have been an avid reader since I found this thread a couple of months ago. Still attempting to get my head around it - but really nice looking charts.

Please don't stop posting...

Regards,
David

[Alba]

I'm in year end light trading style today.
But I will attempt to find the time to post some charts (likely on week-end).

Will restart full trading activities and diary on January 2 2010

[Gaxxaghem]

I was expecting perhaps a second week of trade-able markets but it all seems pretty rancid today!

David

[Alba]

Here we go....


EURUSD trend change alert!!!
Market was able to take the significant 1.4627 swing low.
Today it will probably retrace, but uptrend can't be reliable ANYMORE, unless a new a high over 1.5145 is created invalidate which move.

Probable retracement point 1.4883. First VPOC 1.4836.

No trend complacency anymore, EURUSD must demone the direction, before any more risk is committed to the long trend side.

But it's still not a downtrending market, we have just hit the neutral point.
1.4600-1.4900 probably the new range unless we fall to sub 1.4500.

Buying now the 1.4627 low using a retracement target 1.4883. Strict MM and tight stop due to the lack of market tendency.
Stops below 1.4580, time period 2-15 days.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528697848989911370.jpg

[Alba]

Market magical in action.

We retested the 2007 near / 2008 open today https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528697812.png

1.4587 is a crucial point, watch the potential gigantic bear trap there...

What is clear is the 1.3972-1.4587 should provide very powerful service next year...

Do you think it's a coincidence?

Do not think so, market magical in action, really https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528697812.png
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15286978501633330671.jpg

[Alba]

When we could remain over the 1.4627 break point, we can retrace up to the 1.4817-1.4844 zone.

Notice how the weekly value traded under the monthly price.
EURUSD will remain weak until it could trade over the weekly LVA 1.4682 and close above it.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15286978521167379448.jpg

[Alba]

Food for ideas...

Was already out of eurusd bull trend below 1.4827.

Now I will allow the dust settle and will just take small intraday trades, nothing big and no swing trades before January 18, 2010...

No need to fight, and hurt the account, will enjoy the Christmas Season, and then prepare for next year trading https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528697815.png

https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528697815.pnghttps://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528697815.pnghttps://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528697815.png
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15286978551961615861.jpg

[Alba]

Seeing weekly value boundaries...
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15286978581278177868.jpg

[Alba]

Possible support 1.2239-1.2249.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1528697868635889140.jpg

[Alba]

Summer is over and trading volatility / quantity should pick up again out of here.
Will restart with lesser quantity until I will get my normal trading rhythm.