trading with fundamentals is the only way to go

[bypoxa]

I am able to hear the groans (Tdion is back again.... Good, more bashing)

I was watching CNN the other day, and they had an FX analyst on the market that spoke about the fundamentals that should have transferred the price one way or the other. FUNDAMENTALS. The novels.

And the price moved, just like they said.

That is indeed far better than a crap shoot on a chart pattern. I am able to hear all of the jacko and people coming into the ribbon. , you are jealous. You've been here for 4 decades and just don't have what it takes

my reply: trading patterns is just too damn risky. You are taking a short term play on what a currency pair will do at the 1/100 of a penny level. This is insanity. There is not any order there.

Men are out there making a living trading price action like mike_w and... (sorry mike, I don't remember the screen name) kudos to you guys....

but i stick to my guns.... I understand fundamentals, and stay away from looking for the blueprint (or grail)... yes my view changed a lot because I moved to germany... but one thing is still the same, I must have reason to trade.

Right now I am looking at averaging back on a brief on EURUSD. I will double if the price continues to escalate. The purchase price shouldn't go about 1.60 because of PPP.... But in the jungle of forex, who knows what's going to happen a month from now (nukes, anything )

[oxmaygamcaygc]

Uhm.. The crisis that is subprime was sort of obvious. What goes up due to huge leverage has to go down in some moment.

What wasn't apparent [actually quite the contrary what I anticipated] was the tragedy started in US and has been mostly US crisis but that made USD more powerful [for numerous reasons which should now be clear to anyone considering fundies].

This is precisely the same thing as coming USD treasuries meltdown - quite easy to forecast but the effects are very hard to predict. I would suppose once more that USD will go down hard... I enjoy your post. PPP was mentioned by me earlier. This notion has the propensity to hold in the very long term (think of 10 years), in the shorter term howeverthe market can considerably detract from this equilibrium level.

In my view that is the issue of pure fundamental analysis: you can analyse whether an asset is underpriced, but you can't predict if the market reaches its turning point and begins heading towards equilibrium.

In regards to the market, you will find million other factors that push prices, non of which can be contained in fundamental analysis. A lot of that has to do with plogy. It's quite well possible that you will be stopped out before this happens, although bubbles burst.

[Agxx8]

Doesn't the analysis a currency is under/over-valued from a fundamental standpoint the assertion that fundamental analysis is the'way to go' in the first loion? Either your analysis is wrong, incomplete or the market does not care at that point in time. Fundamental analysis is more subjective than specialized analysis - it looks so obvious when you look back on it, however were the credit crisis that'obvious' to part time economists until it crashed, then why did not it crash earlier? I've got nothing against any type of analysis, technical analysis is not my religion and I am not crying'infidels' with a coat of high explosives around me but fundamental analysis is for exceptionally sophistied long term investors, not traders. I could not care less where the Big Mac index is at when I am holding trades for two or three hours.

[giomgaybenalli]

Uhm, no. Crude is based on demand and supply. Since the price goes too high, alternates become more viable. There's all sorts of crude which becomes workable at $100/bl, and when gas reaches $5/gal we are going to find all kinds of new technologies (compacted natgas, methanol/ethanol, electric hybrids, H2) replacing petrol motors. It is great that people have opposite views, otherwise there wouldn't be markets.

Anyhow, let's just agree that we disagree - I really don't want to bet with anyone since that is why the markets exist.

[julio33]

Who cares about fundi/tecni/or tea leaves. I am just up 5% in my account btw.lol un understand one want flair in this company not fundi tea leaves/fundi fanatism. Nology I or put ur view point.thanks

[jime95]

Forex is easy once you understand the main reason you may exchange....And it is not easy to understand the rationale....But should you utilize the fundamental some theories of Forex about fundamental then you're able to exchange Forex readily....

I utilize fundamental in Fx....But I also utilize technical indiors at FX....But initially I try to understand that why I shall go for extended or go for brief....That's my trading style....
And my FX awareness with fundamental says that USDJPY is going to get a big long fashion....
Currently the price is 89.397 if any major change is not done in fundamental of US or even JAPAN market then the PAIR is gonna lengthy and that extended will generate huge amount of pips such as 1500-2000 but it may take three to four months time....
Do not believe me an expert I am just a learner of FX and fundamental of FX market....
Regards

[oxnufaus]

Both FA and TA work. There are successful people from every camp: pure fundamentalists and technicians. There are those who successfully combine FA and TA.

But neither method is well worth a dime if you can't control your emotions or if you do not have solid cash management.

[Meni80]

After reading many posts I'm of the opinion that fundamentals are fundamentally incorrect and technicals technically not correct. Money management is the winner.

[elpenli]

And the winner is...

After reading many posts on this thread, I'm of the opinion that fundamentals are fundamentally incorrect and technicals technically not accurate. Money management is the winner. My answer would be regular after being asked this question a lot of times over the years

Who cares.

Trading is all about figuring out what works for you. If thats TA FA or which side of bed you get from in the morning... so long as your on it if it moves and controling your risk whenever you are in on a motion.

Soros wrote a reaonably excellent novel about FA modelling in the 90's and lots of good books about TA out there... nothing actually covers how to apply those versions in real time.

Most of the time what makes people twist up things is the final and last hurdle which is your private plogy and that's a lifetime journey... some people today master it others dont and offer up.

[Meni80]

And the winner is...


My response is standard after being asked this question a lot of occasions over the years

Who cares.

Trading is all about finding out what works for you. If TA FA or which side of bed you make it from in the morning... so long as your on it if it goes and controling your risk when you are in on a movement.

Soros wrote a reaonably excellent book about FA modelling at the 90's and lots of great books about TA out there... nothing really covers how to apply those versions in real time.

Most of the time what makes folks... Deliberately left plogy from this dicussion, fearing perhaps not many could concur.

It had been hard for me to control emotions, however accidently found out my plogy is great if money well under control and within my calculations / fiscal plan.

[vaxxejo11]

However, to follow some other analysts is folly. Only google Philip Tetlock. He is a scientist, I'm certain that you'll be curious about what he is found out.

Per my other article, the question is straightforward. Are you a a inmate or zookeeper? Wow this man has very wise things to say. I knew them intuitively I think thing that there been research into it.