TA self fullfilled prophecies... what a joke.

[bypoxa]

Do fibs do the job?

Can MAs work?

Can Andrew's pitchforks work?

So, the point of the thread is straightforward: what would it take to DISPROVE randomness.... Thus giving the trader a real benefit using fibs, MAs, round amounts, pitchforks, fancy MACD interpretations, stochastics, etc.. Quite simply it would want a market NOT OF RANDOMNESS, however of repeating patterns.

But what's reality? It's That NO TWO YEARS ARE EVER ALIKE. The charts are never repeating. History does not repeat itself, therefore price is arbitrary.... And consequently TA.

An example comes to mind.... The GBPJPY BB of kharvell egy. It backtested for many thousand pips in numerous years.... The thread was buzzing.... People were investing it ! Crash and burn. Much like Heiken I Smoothed. Etc..

Now please do not clutter the thread with screen captures of where TA works, since I will just need to post images where it does not.

And do not tell us how your are a prosperous discretionary trader (which TA is a instrument ) because that usually means you are simply imagining.... And anybody can get blessed doing that.

[sofaymzo]

Folks lose because of poor systems and emotions that are poor. I feel great... let er run aint gonna cut it
The market zeroes' out along with a tech system only goes so far. The buyers or the sellers stop/increas along with the market turns.

[sanlangsag]

Another example of feelings is stressing about whether TA doesn't or functions - or for that matter whether FA functions or not or astrology or whatever.

No matter how many times it's been stated it requires repeating that how one manages their transactions is much more important than what they use to enter/exit.

[camlinocamola]

HKMA thread? What does that stand for?

I have yet to see rabid or anyone else lay out any actual egy for deriving probabilities. It is the identical crap science debate that gambling is odds driven. I'd like to learn how you measure sentiment. How do you factor in market efficiency (the lack of time required for the market to equilize to fair market value) These are the REAL questions.... HKMA = Hong Kong Monitary Authority. I set up a thread before time discribing the collection boundaries that the HKMA permits their currency to trade within. I placed a trade at the banks set boundaries and it held before returning up toward the center of the range. It wasn't arbitrary at all, about the HKMA website they state in plain and simple terms they wont let it proceed beyond a certain point. It got it did actually go another way, and there, I placed a transaction. The most recent time it hit the boundaries, currently there, the jump is again holding... however, due to interest rates I cant hold onto the transaction. That isn't arbitrary conditional to market.

AgainI agree with nearly all you say... however, there are two issues with your relentlessness. The first being is that there are minutes of nonrandomness you dont pay attention to. The second is that you seem to be under the assumption that without a fantastic series (I suppose you'd call it) of luck, you wont get it at the markets. You might not become a millionaire without this luck, but with direction of a outlook that is productive, you can make consistent money.

On a personal note, why do you care about other peoples ongoings so much? I feel their needing to prove what they do and those that earn money dont give a poop about people is actually real or not based on arbitrary luck.

[camvany]

It's not random after it's quantified into probabilities. Can we move on to more important things? Like this past week shorting the GBPJPY. How's that working out for you?

[Vallu13]

What is that working out for you? Great.

[pablolmga]

This subject (efficiently #8220;Are markets random? #8221;-RRB- has been addressed many times. I posted my thoughts here.

What intrigues me is the broad diversity of opinions at FF....

-- On the 1 hand, we have those who believe that it#8217;s potential to succeed simply by accepting trades whose R-value gt; 1 (i.e. ensuring losses are smaller than wins), and applying the 2 percent (or whatever) principle, all with discipline. (My thoughts on this here).

-- On the flip side, we've got folk saying that with the very best possible analysis; suitably selected setups; optimal entries, trade management and/or R-values; MM past the 2% rule; and perfect discipline, it#8217;s hopeless, or extremely hard, to be extended term profitable.

I presume that the truth lies somewhere between both of these extremes.

[Eliioxz]

The Truth Is Out There - X Files And yes its tru which not everybody is able to be a trader and that many of people fail at this stylish or bussines gambling with clues, whatever. The is the thing that keeps us going. The question is how many fromnigeriaforextradingare profitable? I guess its 5% but everybody pretend to be earning hundreds of pips daily out. Thats bullshit, pardon.


This subject (efficiently #8220;Are markets arbitrary? #8221;-RRB- has been addressed many times. A while back I posted my thoughts here.

What intrigues me is the broad array of opinions at FF....

-- On the one hand, we have people who think that it#8217;s possible to be successful by simply accepting trades whose R-value gt; 1 (i.e. ensuring losses are smaller than wins), and employing the 2% (or whatever) principle, all with discipline. (My thoughts on this here)....

[caney]

Tdion,

I was only wondering, In your opinion, what would it require for you to provide a method or system a Tdion stamp of aproval?

Possitive results for Xyears?
The cause of the price movement that ends in profit and can be exploited?
Being able to Automate the process so Human error is Illiminated?

Im asking because Im genuinely Interested what it might require for a method/system to be acceped as profitable by you personally.

Enjoy the threads and posts, keep it real!

Leon

[bypoxa]

Well, so far as I'm concerned, Currency Market is a vehicle that has the potential to pay out huge dividends.

I am hopeful that there's some under-pinning reason for those transactions I set to be predictive often than not, although I can not understand the reason.

I feel that any system based on charts can shit the bed at any point without warning.... Go to a tailspin that is disasterous and shed 50 transactions in a row, and leave you penniless.


So the solution is, in spite of a 1000 trade backtest over ten years, the markets underlying supply/demand could change on a dime. Case in point: 2008 EURUSD following the banks fell.

The reason why I bring up EURUSD is that it's my bread and butter. It's what I focus of my attention on. And for it to abruptly change attribute is enough for me that no charting platform may be considered stable.

[cmis]

I believe that any system based on charts can shit the bed at any stage without warning.... Go into a tailspin that is disasterous and shed 50 trades in a row, and leave you penniless. Shit the bed? I thought that expression was indigenous to my own neck of the woods.

Yup, it is wonderful how a method with a favorable win rate can simply cease and never work again, or at least not until you have been slaughtered. Strings of either 15 or more consecutive losses can and do occur. Fifty? That is the kind of run that leaves you trying to reconstruct a 20k account by trading with pennies, and performing it while sobbing and blowing off large snot bubbles.

[segom]

Shit the bed? I believed that expression was indigenous to my neck of the woods.

Yup, it is wonderful how a method with a favorable win rate can only stop and never work again, or at least not until you've been slaughtered. Strings of 15 or more consecutive losses do happen and can. Fifty? That is the type of streak that leaves one looking to reconstruct a 20k account by trading and performing it while sobbing and blowing snot bubbles. Brought a smile to my face.

[Jessika]

Looking in: https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/trading-discussion/79-good-position-trade-system.html

it suggest that 73.03% think that the market is not arbitrary.





What I would argue is that: 1 ). Forex (such as: past, current and future prices) may be theoretically complete arbitrary.

2. Forex (such as: past, current and future prices) is in praxis partly random

GENERAL time thoughts:

Time???

* potential: because the future is unknown and not yet in existence: There cannot be a 100% proof of any type. All what one can say is foundation on: expectancy probabilities or hope.

* gift:??

* ago: the past forex price action are the only thing we really have for sure. (if a person has correct data).



From the point of time: we have to use past data to discuss forex randomness - if it ought to make any sense.





1. Forex may be theoretically complete arbitrary.

* alone due to the time (future) variable forex could be theroretically complete arbitrary.

Yesteryear at least could have been totally random - as the past as we have it - was at one point in time the long run.


Currently, I do not feel that one could argue against the: theoretically possibility of total randomness in forex


2. Forex is in praxis partly random

* in praxis I would argue there are quite a number of points why the market is NOT completely arbitrary:

- people involved in forex trading possess certain prefiltered ideas how the market behaves (is it through word of mouth from friends with'more expertise', or books or any other level of edjuion)
- there are various financial institution that can affect the forex market to at least some level
- due to human participation - there is a human plogical influence too
- much automated trading (was generally programmed by individual );--RRB- have in there theory a few of the conception.
(actually it might seem that it would be very dificult to program an absolute and total arbitrary automatized trading platform. (didn't feel that through but I don't think it's possible))

just to mention a few.

* as I said due to the reason of'time' we have to look at past data.

And in praxis: past data show to certain degrees repeating patterns. (I do not feel that you can disproof this).

For example the overall pattern of price up and down moves: I never watched any chart over 10 years - whith daily data that was just moving 100% in one direction. And even though there could be one on daily data - what should we proceed down to tick data for 10 years.


In fact in praxis you can find quite a fantastic number of repeating patterns: What I am not stating that all or even any of them are profitable to trade as such.




BUT: anyone searching at 10 charts to get a currency each spanning another year - will understand that forex prices is not perfect ordered: That's why I feel it's ideal to accept partial randomness.


3. Some other points to spark thinking: * There are more issues to come: even though all present annual charts for a currency pair would be exactly the same: one MUST NOT conclude that we have a 100 structure because:
a. of this time (potential ) factore there could be constantly something else.
B. if a person believes in absolute and total randomness of the forex market: this randomness could produce by chance also 100 years of same annual charts and be complete arbitrary.

Inf fact you can never understand: it is all based on probabilities.


4. What does it mean:

So basically I think that the only sensible conclusion is: * a partial randomness (WHICH IN FACT: most'properly all' traders do subconsciously).
* In relation to trading this means: first of all there is no 100 guarantee for anything later on.
* there are probabilities which can be to some extend be extracted from the past (data - as well fundamental circumstance and other influences)
* this probabilities might alter (a system with set rules might not necessarily work exactly the same)

it's STILL better to include specific probabilities (from the past) than highlighting a trade onto nothing (what in it's fullest scene is not really possible as one is currently limited with the money one has accessible )




FINALLY:

* when forex would in reality be entirely random: the use of fundamentals or indiors would only don't have any impact - NOT excellent NOR BAD.

So if uncertain:
in case of real complete randomness:


....

And don't tell us how your are a successful discretionary trader (and that TA is a instrument ) because that usually means you are simply guessing.... And anybody can get blessed doing that.
* it will always be better to use something to base a commerce on: in case of real complete randomness of the forex market you can not loose


in case of real partial randomness
* in a partial arbitrary forex market you could win a border with it (but be careful you may also win a disadvantage with the wrong advice, indior used)


in case of real overall structure
* don't understand anyone who'd consider that



I'm hopeful that there is some under-pinning reason for the trades I set to be predictive often than not, although I can't understand the reason.

I feel that any system based on charts can shit the bed at any stage without warning.... Go to a disasterous tailspin and lose 50 trades in a row, and then leave you penniless. I would agree with you on that: but that does not necessary imply practical and actual complete randomness. And if one is a already after 50 trades against one penniless will be dependent on MM and UnitSizing.



If charts are entirely arbitrary than all fundamentals also have only a random effect. You are only being blessed or not blessed as there is nothing to base a commerce decision on.


I am not saying that we can ectract enough structure out of charts to be always a winner (but it is not a complete randomness and so it's better to extract as much info as you can. (same goes for any other helpful info - that might influence the market)

[xllsse]

During periods of low liquidity or when both US and London markets have been shut, the charts would seem to be acting randomly. Trust me....there is nothing arbitrary about FOREX. The more I research FOREX, the more I could appreciate how unrandom it is. You just need a knack for putting the puzzle pieces together.

[xllsse]

The first step in knowing the non-randomness of FOREX would be to put the indiors and instead concentrate on what causes the prices move.