It seems impossible to make money in the long run

[camlalopwz99]

quote Just a heads up Partner. Between 2000 and 2010 I labored at the managed funds sector as a compliance supervisor for a Responsible Entity (Trustee) and Custodian of controlled capital. In that capacity it was my job to estimate the risk management activities of every FUM. I had access to a high number of investment managers in Australia and was privvy to their trading egies as well as heavy duty research in areas of risk management. In the majority of schemes (but definitely not all), their trading egies (whilst mainly being based...,

I believe what you may be missing here is that this sport is a different ball game to get a retail trader vs a fund manger, thanks to many obvious aspects... so a successful long-term trend following techniques used by a fund manager don't necessarily imply success for a straightforward retail trader... somewhat irrelevant IMHO.


Thanks for your input signal,

[campixxo]

quote, I think what you may be missing here is the game is totally a different ball game for a retail trader versus a fund manger, thanks to a lot of apparent aspects... so a powerful long-term trend following techniques utilized by a fund manager don't necessarily mean victory for a straightforward retail trader... somewhat irrelevant IMHO. The article before related to an announcement from member KmBioDmoneda that said As for the hedge funds, and magical men of Currency Market, have you ever seen their trade background? Have you any idea how long they are opening or closing their rankings for? Can you understand they are swing trading? The fact is that you DON´T because that info isn´t supplied to the public.

I only thought I'd shed some light onto the fact that there is really nothing too mysterious about the trading methods of the majority of fund managers at least in Australia. The simple fact is that if the Responsible Entity cannot realize the trading procedure and risk impliions of an investment manager then there will be no fund in the first place since it is the Responsible Entity within this environment that holds the risk.

PS It is my experience that the trading game is tougher for the fund manager as the sums involved are far larger demanding skillful placement and the demand for consistent returns is a priority. We've got it blessed supplied we stay out of the jaws:)

[P2 k2]

quote Absurd comment. Price action has no guidelines, What it has is a range of movement determined by the laws of supply and demand which can be predicted by the trader enough to give her or him an advantage. The rules that exist are those that should be obeyed by the traders . So price action has no rules ? Would you please be enough to explain to me what is the definition of a change and an expansion. As both of those is what generates what you see on your chart as price action.

[P2 k2]

quote Just a heads up mate. Between 2000 and 2010 I labored in the managed funds industry for a compliance supervisor for a Responsible Entity (Trustee) and Custodian of controlled funds. It was my job to assess the risk management activities of each FUM. I had access to a number of successful investment managers and has been privvy to their own trading egies as well as heavy duty research in areas of risk management. In the majority of schemes (but certainly not all), their trading techniques (whilst largely being based... what's your response suppose to disclose? Am I suppose to take your word that YOU WERE and trust that what you say is true? Your response has not shown the lack of transparency by the hedge funds to their clients as for the positions that they take. Which impart t reveal if they scalping or are currently swinging.

[Oxnolo7266]

Patterns is one of the influential things in price action, in case you understand patterns you will know everything happening on a chart across all intraday timeframes.

[P2 k2]

quote Absurd Remark. Price action has no guidelines, What it has is a range of motion determined by the laws of demand and supply which can be predicted by the trader sufficient to provide him or her an edge. Are the ones that must be obeyed by the traders themselves. Why not only tell us all what is your definition of an ENGULF. Engulf is a part of price action, hence price action has principles as engulf has a very definite and specific definition.

[menabelico23]

quote Why not simply tell us what is your definition of an ENGULF. Engulf is part of price action, thus price action has particular rules as engulf has a definition. You are talking about chart patterns here, not rules, which as I've already said, do not exist in price movement. Chart patterns give an indiion of future market movements, they do not supply rules.

[bangigi]

; I will answer later.



Https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1519361937737269504.png

It's time to lose cash

[bangigi]

https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15193619391763974135.png

TA doesn't work. Set and pray.

[bangigi]

The price at any point in time is stochastic in nature (unsure ). It changes between end stage constraints beyond which everybody or participants agrees whether the instrument is under or over valued. Think about an auction in which bidders are found. Since the auction starts all participants take a stab and participate but over time as price rises, fewer and fewer bidders take part. You are able to use a bell curve to assess the probability of where the price constraints exist. It's the limitations (where most or all participants concur ) that...
100% agree.



In day trading, you're trading in the guts of this bell curve where price stochastically moves about and your stops are typically positioned at more distal ends of the bell curve but still in the median range. An easy announcement can exacerbate the price jitters in this range and push it quickly. You trade according to short duration patterns or price moves that may or not be random price jitters.
I don't understand this.

According to me there are plenty of values since there are several trading horizon. Is price more likely in daytrading perspective, to move? Sure but it is not an aspect that is organic. I mean there is an explanation which is basically newsflow (economic, political or financial ). And as a trader you can reduce this impact. During the US session's beginning I don't trade for instance also I avoid newsflow.



#8203;To get a longer term trader, the position sizes are much lower and the associated limitations of their system (the admissions and exist) are therefore positioned towards the longer distal end of the bell curve which gives price the ability to breathe
Price breathing isn't longer-term factor. It is possible to use an extremely wide stop loss using a Intraday egy and quite a tight SL using a swing time frame. If you utilize chart pattern on TF and using a 35 sl, we can say it is a wide SL concerning to the timeframe.
Https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15193619421997739201.png

As you can see with this fictive commerce, I will let the price breathes on short time frame. What about using a 20 SL on a monthly chart? It might be the period frame but price doesn't breathe yet. So it is a egy's concept and it doesn't seems to be linked with the TF IMO.



The aspects that exit you in the trade for your longer term trader are less frequently single announcements, but more frequently the result of market actions over an extended period duration. You've got more time to assess shing market dynamics and have the capacity to permit price movement. There's a higher likelihood that there is some fundamental reason market participants are acting this way on the longer term timeframe, less skill to get one institution (or set of institutions) to perform...
I concur



The bots and high frequency trading systems utilized in the marketplace simply compounds the problem for short-term traders. Do you believe you can outperform the algorithms of the high frequency traders?
I don't believe I can outperform neither HFT traders nor Hedge-fund managers (who utilize swing trading). I'd be OK with just performing.

As you utilize an elaborated english, it is likely I misunderstood what you wrote.

[campixxo]

Hi Unabletrader

I expect your trades fared well last night (my time). I decided to hit the hay for some beauty sleep and must confess I was getting a little crotchety with festive season trading blues last night.

Appearance, before I get started I need to reinforce these are my own personal views only and that I recognise there are a variety of different trading styles that are very legitimate for many different circumstances. For some reason, members here thought I was criticising scalpers or those that utilize the reduced timeframes when in fact I was just sharing an opinion that has worked for me and gives me peace of mind in this very tough market. I could have framed my articles a bit better, when I offended, so that I apologize to the scalpers out there. It was not my intent. I was feeling a game of chance or simply a bit of your pain expressed in your articles in that most of us have or will undergo moments in our trading lifetimes where we question whether this game is too difficult.

....so here's my opinion only and why trading with a bias towards the longer interval seems to function for me.

Does span Issue?
Market behavior relies on the collective actions of its participants. When that actions is orderly predied on overall consensus, price moves in a predictable manner. When that collective action is stochastic (unpredictable), the market becomes a game of chance. Generally the price of an instrument seeks to attain value but this price movement always overshoots it has underlying fair value due to the huge array of different agendas and lack of coordination of of it's participants. The majority of movements relate to institutional risk management decisions as opposed to objectives. This bid or ask price is frequently a lure from an institutional desk to move it is risk instead of the outcomes arising from retail traders of similar mindsets. Even though an announcement's results leave you scratching your head and believing the market is merely behaving strangely, that's credited to the fact that every market player have different day to day decisions on their schedule. They may for example be utilizing that bullish statement as a method to offload risk in a specific instrument. In the short term, you simply don't understand. That is stochastic movement constitutes the majority of price movement at the lower timeframe. Institution A offloads risk and other market participants scramble consequently. These agendas on the term timeframe however achieve consensus over the duration period in relation to what is considered as fair value of the tool. Each institution have their risk parameters that they operate inside and few can survive for extended periods going counter to consensus at the long term. Yes there are the long-term position traders that are prepared to bide their time till price moves their manner such as those on the right side of the credit default swap debacle following the subprime collapse however they have chunks of steel and they're in the minority as a rule.

Over the long term, and you need to trust this for it to make sense, price is reflective of the reasonable value of the instrument concerned. This is the foundation of'value-investing' and the majority of market participants are bottom-line fundamentally inclined. This means is that price movement within the course of time oscillates about the intrinsic value of it.

This isn't saying that fundamental analysis is that the be all and end all. Given my assurance in price action on the duration period, consensus is built into the price history of the instrument and the price movement eg. On W1 and M1 is a fairly accurate reflection of overall market consensus, so I take my fundamental cues by using Technical Analysis on those timeframes to avoid information overload and statement bombardment. How significant is the statement and what will be the response and just how long will it take the market to fully absorb it. I would really like to know those answers as we would, nevertheless I believe we all could appreciate that it takes time for the market to equilibrate to the news feed. To trade announcements is a sport and more appropriate to an algorithm than a discretionary trader. This bugger's speed can render you .

Over the short-term timeframe, you cannot determine with any level of assurance that the main reason behind the price move given it is impossible to have perfect information of the motives surrounding each player. It's like attempting to determine the weather for a specific day depending on the mechanics of a sample of atoms obtained from a cloud. You need to employ gaming systems rather than traditional trading systems to hopefully reap rewards in this inferno.

When you step out towards the longer timeframes, the charts may look the same irrespective of time scale, but built into these charts would be the fundamental driving factors of price driven by market consensus instead of chance. Impacts of statements are simply waves on this ocean which can be ridden and calamities experienced over the shorter timeframe. Zones of support and resistance on the interval that is M1 are important beasts to be aware of since it captures the combined perspectives of a portion of market participants. You clearly pay more attention to those price constraints than state S/R about the interval or lower. On the reduced timeframes these longer term price constraints are there and to short term scalpers, these significant price levels become areas of significance.

When you attempt to translate an M1 chart, it's more than likely it is fundamental factors of the underlying tool that's considered by the chart reader as the overriding reason behind the price movement instead of the activities of its participants but in reality, most of us know it is actually market behavior that has resulted in this price movement....but there's been general consensus in this price movement and this consensus could be credited to a shared view of intrinsic value.

Now over the longer term timeframes, there is still price doubt, but the impact of this uncertainty is considerably reduced and where principles of mean reversion come into play to give shorter duration traders a more predictable advantage in trying to harvest this market. To the longer term trader, these overshoots in price (overbought and oversold) states give critical information about where to place system limitations (eg. Limits/stops) and to allow for considerable breathing room for price to float between those price extremes. This is saying, and this is a view only, is that there is ample fairly reliable information in a long-term chart to supply egies for both short term traders and long term traders to utilise without needing to trade based on conclusions occurring each second. It also ensures that symptoms that are killers for traders such as overtrading are reduced to a minimum and allows for longer term planning to be undertaken to set the trap (setup).

....anway, cheer up partner. You clearly know your stuff. I just believe you are having a testing patch right now and need a timeout or confidence booster prior to returning to take this bull by it's horns. :--RRB-

Regards

C

PS For some unknown reason I have been stamped as a Swinger...I don't think that holding trades for months at a time can truly be classed as swing trading but when that is the tag that is given to me....then so be it. So please make your car keys in this container and let us get the party started/ tic:-)

[campixxo]

quote I'd be amazed if remains much longer. Cheers .... I have a hard skin and appreciate having a forum such as this to chew the fat and vent when the chips are down as most of us do, so I will be around for a while. This market gives me headaches since it is so I am here for a joyful ride, not a confrontational ride. Have a Terrific New Year. :-)

[xangoval]

I have been using a successful Forex trading for 6 weeks now. I have taken over 50 trades in several markets states (enormous volatility, poor volat, balanced, imbalanced, newsflow, risk aversion). Today I decide to backtest manually and I have only figured out that it is not as profitable as it looks. To tell the truth I am suprised. I thought 80 trades was sufficient to establish or not the validity of a system but I was incorrect. Is anyone here may show a trading explorer that is successful for several months or many years? (Excuse my poor english) Check profile out Of trader ngdmnd. You can view his trade explorer EmoDTrading

[bangigi]

quote Swap may be positive. And we do not care about the truth that a trade might be a swing or a trade. What does matter is how much fees are important regarding to your profit. Mxfxbook includes a bug, it counts commissions like withdrawals: http://www.myfxbook.com/members/ValueTrading/sedfds/1098364 But it is not my actual performance. My real one is: (commissions included) image If there were not any commissions, I would have a performance of 9.9%. There is gap of 4% that's huge regarding to my average risk of 0.2%. But you man told...
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1519361932.png

Nevertheless in the game after two months. Market gives some expectation sometimes much time?

: You deserve a response I can't offer because of my English level. But thank you very much for your participation.

[bangigi]

I have been using a trading for 6 weeks. I have taken more than 50 transactions in several markets conditions (huge volatility, poor volat, balanced, imbalanced, newsflow, risk aversion). Now I choose to backtest manually and I figured out that it is not quite as profitable as it seems.

To tell the truth I am suprised. I was believing not the validity of a system or 80 transactions was enough to establish but I was incorrect.

Is anybody here may show a successful trading explorer for a long time or a few months?

(Excuse my poor english)