Is the market random or not ?

[mamok.fgz.1990]

price bars without vol mean nothing. How to determine supply or demand?
Thinking markets proceed arbitrary is a misconception. How do you decide volume from the Forex market?

Short term the market is arbitrary - only imagine a simple currency hedge against a huge business which want to hedge their risk. They do not care about the current price...

Long term (fundamentally) it's not arbitrary.

[nooeliay96]

How do you decide volume from the Forex market?

Short term the market is arbitrary - just imagine a very simple currency hedge from a huge business which want to hedge their risk. They don't care about the current price...

Long term (fundamentally) it's not arbitrary. We do not speak about traded volume. It is tick volume which gives pretty good hints.

I concur, but generally saying that the market is arbitrary is a misconception. Same as for every seller there must be a buyer.

[Jllelegamcay]

price bars with no vol mean nothing. How to ascertain supply or demand?
Thinking markets proceed arbitrary is a misconception. Really ? Tell me most of TA traders in the FX market trade without volumes ? You speak like there is a meaning of every move in the FX market. You do know there are companies who buys/sells just because they need to and price doesn't matter?

[nooeliay96]

Really ? Tell me how many of TA traders in the FX market trade without volumes ? You talk like there's a meaning of every move in the FX market. You do know there are companies who buys/sells just because they need to and price does not matter? yeah whatever. keep cool...

[Jllelegamcay]

yeah whatever. Keep trendy... That is a respond I could expect from a 18 year-old kid. I've given up trying to inform new participants about this forum and I know remember why.

Sentence of the afternoon;


mind is like a parachute, it only works when it is open

[nooeliay96]

That is a respond I could expect from a 18 year old kid. I have given up trying to inform new participants on this forum and I know remember why.

Sentence of the day;


Your mind is like a parachute, it only works when it's open erm, what's your problem? You violate by arrogant responding, and not more. You don't have to enlight me sure, ty.

[Jllelegamcay]

erm, what's your problem? You violate by replying, not more. You do not have to enlight me sure, ty. If you're 100% sure on your definition of the market, why are you even posting here without following your statement up? Like you as for me, I do not mind what other men and women think or believe but when they input a conversation here on FF, participants could demand a more brief explanation by a person. Have a look how those yes as well as someno voters gave excellent explanation regarding this topic.

Looking at a number of the names on those who voted yes, I begin to know what they mean. A quick calculation of their market experience would provide us something about 60( ) years while I would wager that amount is a lot higher compared with those who voted no. Also thinking about how the crows always have incorrect, I can only conclude this happen to be an eduional thread for me and also thank you all for your detailed explanation earlier in the thread.

[minilu]

Price bars mean plenty w/o volume. Price action as a complete goes to market sentiment. It's quite easy to determine in advance if the day will probably be a ranging day or a trending one. Trade accordingly.

[Jllelegamcay]

Price bars mean plenty w/o volume. Price action as a whole goes to market sentiment. It's quite easy to determine beforehand if the day will probably be a ranging day or a trending one. Trade accordingly then. Wow bad. Care to edue us? If I understand correctly, you state you can tell me on the price-action i.e Asia session in the event the day will be ranging or not?

[minilu]

Wow not bad. Care to edue us? If I understand correctly, you say you can tell me on the price-action i.e Asia session if the day will probably be ranging or not?
Within a certain percent, obviously nothing is perfect. Nevertheless, you can make an edued guess. As the day progresses further you can then refine that discard the guess. Still, it is a good way to filter out the least predictable times. Having a good way to determine if you should stick out of the market is useful in and of itself.

Read :
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/trading-discussion/82-esignal-cqg-vttrader.html

Now was another classic Moment. We had an early day imbalance over yesterday's high, but dropped back in range. That speaks plenty to volatility and orders you to watch for a potential range expansion which may stick. Price did exactly that, it rallied in the hourly rate 21 EMA and re-extended up to land right on the weekly R2/R3 midpt (also happened to be the 50% retrace of the big move down).

If you had any questions about the daily move they would've been clarified when price came over the daily high, retested for support and broke higher. This was the closing lifeless give-away, but there was a hint to be discovered earlier when the underside did not extend further.

I don't wish to come off seeming like a guru here, I'm fairly new in this style of trading and it's been around since the 80s in one kind or another... so I'm the new kid on that particular block. Most of what I've heard so far comes from a combination of the CBOT substance, some stuff out of Linda Bradford Raschke, the publiion Mind over Markets and a lot of pattern study.

[supemleiva]

Absolutely. The market is random, except if it's not. Understanding when those chances will appear is the complete definition of edge. I enjoy this.

Allow me to breifly explain my faith.

In a generalized perspective, I think that the markets are not random, but it can often appear they are. Please follow my logic. Every time price moves down or up by one point, then a person just engaged in the market for a reason. Reason opposes randomness, and as such discounts it. To anybody who had been informed of who determined the market to move that 1 pip, or better yet WHY they entered the market, the move was reasoned, not random. However, this exact same motion may be perceived as random by anybody who does not understand why price only acted as it did. A person a million miles away watched price go up 1 pip, had no idea why, and says, The markets are somewhat random. The difference between the two observations is advice, or understanding. Therefore, randomness can be perceived via unawareness, ingnorance, or from any other means lack of knowledge.

So, my opinion is that markets are random if you do not understand why price is behaving exactly the way it is. This concept applies to other areas too, take baseball such as. If I'd been exposed to the sport, never played with it or watched it, and has been taken to a match, I might create an assumption that the players are behaving out of randomness. To me it would look like they are only throwing the ball for no reason, running in circles, and people are clapping all of the time. I would not be in a position to make any predictions about future behavior of the players currently. If, however, a person next to me explained the principles of the match and why people were behaving as they were, then it would make much more sense to me and no longer be random. It could be reasoned, and I really could make assumptions on what players will do next, based on this rationale.

So, to reevaluate the market, it's my view you have to understand why price is shing, otherwise you are trading randomness. Might it be possible to understand why every pip moves how it does? Of course not. But in the event that you're able to understand even 1 reason why price will probably act a certain way at a specific point or at a specific time, then you can profit from this, as it's no longer considered random.

[Jllelegamcay]

I am making this thread to show all unsure individuals if the market is random or not, followed closely by hopefully the correct answer.

I got this inspiration when I saw people who have done 1000 trades (1kt's) asserting that trading is random, followed with a significant discussion.

So I wish to make this plain and simple. Repairing a vote-pull and on the lookout for individuals with at least two years of market-experience or at least 1k trades (live) behind your belt.

I do not feel it is crucial for any explanation. For those who have completed over 1k trades you should now the answer, IMO.

Want to give an explanation? Same standards as for voting, please.

Somehow I'm comfortable about the Outcome. Otherwise I would look -- Edit: I am beginning to look for my.