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coksubeox
03-05-2016 22:17, 10:17 PM
Fantastic afternoon Ladies and Gentlemen,

Below I Shall share some unique insight about the Markets.

First off for those wondering where I was these past 2 months I was tied up with system development and study, nevertheless I am back to make a contribution. That is a long over due ribbon, I appreciate the info which the Users of FF have provided over the past few decades.
Whether info is gold, or fool's gold: information of any kind gives the player the chance to boost him/herself. Golden information points us in the right path, useless information lets us reflect and analyze the logic of unsuccessful Traders, ultimately benefiting oneself by learning from the mistakes of other people.

Average Trading Logic
once we look at the average trader or unsuccessful trader their logic typically involves examining past price, developing a method, then calculating the accuracy of the method using previous data, example:
if the process had a 60% accuracy over the previous twenty years compared to... certainly it will have roughly 60% accuracy in the future lt;- that flow of logic consistently leads to failure, why not use something which can adapt on the fly as new info stre in... the human mind!


Market Constants
It goes without saying that the Markets are complex, so complex that prediction is futile for the typical man/woman.
So instead of trying to predict the Markets lets try to know them better, why not define it, understand, and learn what the Market is? TYhrough greater understanding of the Markets we'll have greater probability of succeeding.

Now I would like to present a bit of Info regarding Market Constants. My definition of a Market Constant is just as it sounds:
A Characteristic which has existed previously, does exist, and will continue to exist as long as there's a Market to exchange.

Below I've listed out a few Constants, do note that some of them are obvious, other's not too much. By producing a similar list, and adding to it as you develop, you might discover that this information will affect your trading for the better.

- You will find 24 Hours in a Day one of those Hours will include the High of the Day another Hour will probably contain the low (this notion could be applied to any stage (s) time)

- Markets are Recurrent X% of the Time (using Price not Bars)

- Fat Tailed Distribution is based on all TimeFrames, the result or fat-ness if you'll is more conspicuous on lesser periods of time

- Due to this Markets not have a Standard Distribution there's simply no way the Markets could be called Random (contrary to popular belief, mind you popular belief time and time again leads to failure in the Trading Planet )

- Beyond price doesn't affect current Market Moves regardless of what happened previously: Example, If innumerable massive Sell Orders suddenly execute... does it matter if the price they executed at'd one hundred past Support Bounces?? The simple response: No
- New Information flowing to the market induces speculation, which in turn generates Order execution and ultimately the movement of Price. A line Drawn on your chart, or oversold indiion of this RSI will not ever cause Price to proceed.

- The Markets are Static, we as humans trick ourselves and occasionally others into believing differently... The markets are, and always have been, and likely will continue to be made up of Numerous Orders.
However, we frequently look at a Chart and Photo that it's moving, comparing it to some organic physical incident like: throwing a ball and expecting the ball to keep in the direction that it was thrown.... Unless there's an unlikely large gust of wind that pushes it away...
there's the Constant of Fat Tailed Distribution, but it doesn't alter how the Markets comprise of Single Orders not a Flow of Orders


(This second statement isn't a constant but something I find valuable. It was inspired by a consumer here at FF named CrucialPoint, credit goes to him)
If no Orders are executed for 10 minutes, price will not move; if no Orders are executed for 1 year, price will not move.
So how important is the time when it comes to trading, we as Traders earn profit from the movement that occurs on the Y axis of our trading charts not the X axis.
(re-read the underlined statement above, there's a connection which exists between the movement of price and orders, it's as straightforward as that. . However not simple enough to exchange, yet this concept can be overlooked when folks are growing trading procedures and by doing this it inhibits progress)


there's no get rich quick scheme once it comes to trading, there's nevertheless a get bad quick scheme if one does not try to separate themselves from the crowd of unsuccessful traders. I've stated this many times, the majority fails always, if one uses the very same methods as the majority they too will probably fail.
So instead develop unique ways of examining the Markets, and trading the Markets BUT initial create a unique technique of thinking; your thoughts affect your activities so of course they will influence the way that you analyze and trade the Markets.
Develop a unique perspective.

Developing traders need to be mature enough to realize that the real Nature of the Markets is complicated, nevertheless there is and always will be Market Constants, by identifying these Constants one has greater likely hood of success because the individual will understand a bit more about the true nature of the market.

Godbless and Best of luck to you Brothers and Sisters,




(The list outlined above, contains pieces of information that's positively influenced my trading because the day I first started. This list is based off of my adventures, I do respect the opinions of other Traders particularly those of you who may disagree with what I have written. I look forward to discussing any criticism or theories that arise from this particular post, thanks all.)

jaioxmes
07-03-2022 22:10, 10:10 PM
- There are 24 Hours in a Day among those Hours will include the High of the Day another Hour will probably contain the low (this concept can be applied to any stage (s) of time)

Have you read H. Rearden?

This kind of simple yet profitable concept.

https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1519514315774297142.png

oxminasmile9
07-03-2022 23:32, 11:32 PM
I come back time to time. Very valuable!

I'm understanding the elimination of time as a market steady.

oxnucabmixxa
07-04-2022 00:54, 12:54 AM
quote Have you read H. Rearden? This kind of simple yet profitable concept. picture Can you please elaborate the principles in your image?! What does the test under the point mean? Has the high/low take the high/low of previous bar out or under which condition (the amount of pips difference) includes a high tested the previous days high?

jaioxmes
07-04-2022 02:17, 02:17 AM
quote Would you please elaborate the principles in your picture?! For example, what exactly does the evaluation under the next point mean? Has the high/low take the high/low of earlier pub out or under which state (how many pips difference) has a high tested the previous days ? Visit my ribbon.
You will find the answers there.

oxnucabmixxa
07-04-2022 03:39, 03:39 AM
quote Visit my ribbon. You'll get the answers there. You mean Maximum Open / Lowest Open Trade? Thank you. Seems I must read a lot today...

coksubeox
07-04-2022 05:01, 05:01 AM
It has been awhile since I rambled, under I'll talk a bit more concerning MCs (Market Constants).

Do note that this might seem esoteric, maybe it's. I have mentioned before my approaches will not be publicly available, however my thought process will be for those of you who are interested in taking a look at something through another's view.

Lets begin,
If one takes randomly generated Data (a large number of Information loops ), and contrasts it to Live Market Data (also a massive number of Information ), discrepancies will be found between the two. By observing the differences we can find certain characteristics that Live Market Data has. Combining these characteristics with additional Market Constants creates better prejudice regarding:
what the Market will probably do when ________ happens.
The Blank is a cause based from the Market Constants.

For all those of you that wonder why I mention Market Constants so much, it's simply a method that I think takes away most of the doubt from an uncertain event. When we examine any event with this type of logic, we end up in a fantastic point to make additional conclusions... take the below illustration, it may seem long winded, however there is good meaning to it:

your task is to determine the likelihood of that way two individuals will walk, and for how far, until they turn.

At first glance we understand nothing about how Person #1 goes. We know that #1 is bound to proceed but how far and in what direction is unknown. We can try to follow them, we can try to say that since they've moved with XYZ pattern before they're bound to do the exact same now... we can utilize math, neural networks, moving averages, RSI you name it... but we just are guessing using past behaviour. At this point we know nothing about their character, their nature (Market Constants).

After observing #1 for sometime things become worse... we find that this Person changes their motion from time to timethey become more or less volatile with their movements, they turn suddenlythey zigzag, and at times take much longer until they make a turn... They're a really uncertain person nevertheless they are and person with traits, but these traits can't be observed clearly without comparing this Person #1 to to something else.

So we've got Person #2 now walking before you, We know for true that this individual makes their endings on a random basis, in a random direction.

So what if we were to take Person #2 for many walks, and observed these walks tightly, listing anything out that is constant...

If we were to take our very unsure friend Person #1 outside for a stroll what can be said when we examine their walk with Random Person #2's? What attributes of #1 stay constant? Write them down.

When we did not compare the two and just chose to focus on #1, we would just be after a very uncertain individual that we understand very little concerning, prediction of the motion, and determining accurate probabilities would be unworthy.

Now this next part is going to make me seem a bit crazy,
When you look at anything in existence to determine ALL of it's attributes it must be compared to something else, for instance, if someone was only ever able experiencing something: take the Sun, they wouldn't really understand what it's with great detail. Do they understand light, and the features of heat? To understand heat, one must also understand the contrast of chilly, to comprehend light you need to also understand what darkness is... so a comparison using something of contrast is imperative to determine characteristics in detail.

The Markets are no different, they're an individual with some attributes that can be observed easily, however there are far more attributes that remain hidden unless that person is compared to something with contrast.

Anyways thanks for reading,
I say again and again I've said that I write for the sake of other people... that is accurate, however the full truth is I write for myself too. There is nobody that I know in real life that can comprehend this type of thinking, or be patient enough to discuss this type of thought process. It's funny how society can belittle and ignore uniqueness, the stranger something is that the more their is overly master.

Lots of Love and have a great week everybody!

Bemla57
07-04-2022 06:23, 06:23 AM
Good afternoon Ladies and Gentlemen, Below I shall share some special insight concerning the Markets. First off for those of you wondering where I was these past 2 months I was tied up with system development and study, however I am back to make a contribution. This is a long over due thread, I love the info that the Consumers of FF have supplied over the last few decades. Whether info is gold, or fool's goldinformation of any kind provides the player the opportunity to improve him/herself. Golden advice points us in the appropriate...
Are you convinced the information price of the past doesn't influence in the upcoming price? .
Are you convinced the information price of the past doesn't influence in the current price? .

If you are not sure you need to remove it.

oxnucabmixxa
07-04-2022 07:46, 07:46 AM
@Rparm: So, in simple words you compare a random walk (or a different statistical model of market behaviour, e.g. Markov processes) to real markets? But what exactly do you compare: Means? Average alterations? Waiting times? There are many parameters.

coksubeox
07-04-2022 09:08, 09:08 AM
@: So, in easy words you compare a random walk (or another statistical model of market behavior, e.g. Markov processes) to real markets? But what exactly would you compare: Means? Average changes? Waiting times? There are so many parameters. Hey AntiCre, you're correct once you state there's a lot to check at. I feel that the more characteristics one compares the more one learns about the nature of this Market.
The characteristics that one observes can be egorized into two groups:
Constant - characteristics that remain constant whatever time period is used (be it 50 decades back, or yesterday. . These constants do not change behavior)
Inconsistent - that the nature of those characteristics is self explanatory.

Now when building a trading system the most important element in deciding the consistency of this system would be,
the proper appliion of Markets characteristics that are Consistent, the rationale is self explanatory.

An individual should maintain a journal and document all things that are Consistent and Inconsistent, anything Inconsistent ought to be prevented when trading.

Among those Market Constants that I find crucial for my trading, something that I've mentioned a few times is that the Fat Tailed Distribution (FTD) that exists when searching at Live Market Data, this in itself is a major discovery. Something that has been understood for a long time but frequently brushed aside. There are numerous people on this forum that understand that the Markets are FTD nevertheless, one Market Constant is not enough to become profitable once Trading Costs are payable. By discovering other Market Constants that compliment each other one can further increase likelihood of success when entering/exiting a transaction.

Finally, look at the Market Price from numerous angles and attempt to keep an open mind when comparing it to random Data.

Inmema
07-04-2022 10:30, 10:30 AM
The difference between a market's price plus a random walk is quite simple, though fundamental

the price is generally shifting out of a target to another;

the random walk (assuming it'random' well) is only random stroll

however alike they look each other, they're so fucking different if you look closer.

But, although a price is always (rarely fail to) moving out of a target from another, just the hawk eyes may tell what exactly are the goals.

And why a price move this way, completely different from a random walk?

It's extremely clear if you agree a price is the manifestation of collective will of all market participants.

In other words, each market doesn't behave quite differently from a human being (or a group of them) does.

He/she (they) are generally living with a purpose.

oxminasmile9
07-04-2022 11:52, 11:52 AM
Back after months on a different job.

nalalayfangiho
07-04-2022 13:15, 01:15 PM
There are 24 Hours in a Day one of those Hours will contain the High of the Day another Hour will most probably contain the low (this concept could be applied to any stage (s) time) - Thats right... does this high or low have any constants inside?? Is there anyway to reevaluate them?? Thats just 1 pip proceed on the direction