Trend Trading

[Giuseppeypunpk]

Hello,

The EUR/USD looks like it's about to close higher than it has shut since early May. Should this happen then will be a new four and a half month high which is where (according to my tests) new highs and lows start to become pretty significant (statistically speaking). Greater highs and lower lows really start to matter around 4 to 6 weeks.

Big and sudden price movements are also statistically significant and the final big bearish weekly candle has been 6 weeks ago, which is probably far enough before not to matter to a lot.

Sentiment can be important and according to OandA's open position ratio, 57.4percent of retail forex traders are brief, which is also a bullish signal.

If anyone is interested in trend after then they may be interested in following this particular thread.

For the sake of the thread, I'm going to trade micro lots within an account I have with GFTUK. I will use a mixture of the first two mechnical trading systems I have on my blog, Strange Curriencies I and Strange Currencies II: http://www.myforexdot.org.uk/StrangeCurrenciesSystem.html and http://www.myforexdot.org.uk/StrangeCurrenciesII.html

I'll be using the exit critieria in the initial system, leaving when the market fails to earn a new high for approximately 12 days and I'll add to positions if I start getting into profit suggested in the second system.

Hopefully this will be the start of a long-term motion and certainly will see new yearly highs

[Ciclopelicana]

Hi,

The EUR/USD appears like it's about to shut higher than it has closed since early May. Should this happen then will be a new four and a half month high that is where (based on my tests) new highs and lows begin to become pretty significant (statistically speaking). Higher highs and lower lows really begin to matter around 4 to 6 weeks.

Big and sudden price movements are also statistically significant and also the last large bearish weekly candle has been 6 weeks ago, which is probably far enough before not to matter to a lot.

Sentiment... Subscribing

Hope so Davidee,

[Emaygom72]

Since the daily cahrt shows, EUR/USD was bearish until september 10th. After that moment, it's begun a strong bullish trend. I think that it will record a new high in past 4 months.

[Giuseppeypunpk]

Right I've only gone long 1 lot on the EUR/USD @ 1.3390.

The Forex does not close as it's 24hr, so I'll specify the near as around 8pm GMT.

When we do not get a high close in the next few weeks I'll shut the position and take the loss, if we get a couple new highs I'll continue to keep the position open and include yet another lot.

That is all for now...

[Giuseppeypunpk]

OK that is the weekend after two days to the trade.

The price has closed around 1.3490 therefore the place is now around 100 pips in profit, not much for a trend following system but not bad considering we're just two days into a trade that will last from several weeks to a lot of months.

The day after I entered this trade the price closed together with my trade about 80 pips from the red. I might have entered at a much greater price had I chosen to wait for Thursday's retracement before entering in the management of Wednesday's breakout, however my research shows that waiting for a retracement (on average) causes you to lose more than you win currencies, but works great on indices. On currencies you overlook to a lot of chances by waiting patiently for retracements because sometimes the price never comes back. You will find far more dips on indices and also the abrupt breakouts are a lot less successful.

I was not to bothered my trade finished in the red yesterday, in reality it's to be expected. This is because I believe that 1. It is impossible to select specific tops and bottoms and two. Whilst the market slowly difts from the direction of this long-term underlying trend there is a lot of randomness from the short term. The price going a hundred pips or so against you early on doesn't therefore mean your trade isn't a good one, if you can not select the bottom to enter long at and there is randomness the price going against you sometime throughout your trade must therefore be expected. The only way you could expect to never be 100 pips from the red would be if you thought you could select and precise top or bottom inside 100 pips, and I don't believe people can - at least not always anyway.

When we don't get a new top closing price in the next few weeks I'll deem it to be a lack of follow through (as explained in the mechnical system Strange Currencies on my blog) and I'll be looking to close the trade, but when the price continues to make new highs I'll be looking to add another lot to the place on a close above 1.3700.

[Popklipk]

Hi,Davidee


I'm With you on this Method and hope we gain some pips and some knowledge along the way. I read all of your methods on your own internet site and all are intriguing. Thank you for sharing and hope to enhance your thread. God Bless MR D.

[Popklipk]

Forgot to mention that the 50% retracement on the monthly chart from november 2009 is only over the current price and you may observe some rejection of price in the short term. Then again it could just blow. We'll see. God Bless MR D.

[Giuseppeypunpk]

Well, that is Monday over. The market doesn't look like it is closing at a new high now, find out what it will tomorrow.

[Giuseppeypunpk]

OK it is nearly 8pm UK time again so lets call that Tuesday's close - it's created a new high again to shut at about 1.3570ish so that is the trade 200 pips in profit so far... Reset to the number of days without a new closing high counter back to 0.

[Popklipk]

Hey David, I have a quick query on the leaves for this particular method. Do you mean you will wait 12 days of no new weekly high prior to departing? If so what about big corrections. Would you wait is there more to it . Sorry but I'm somewhat confused. Thanks MR D.

[Giuseppeypunpk]

Hey David, I've a fast query on the leaves for this method. Do you mean you will wait 12 days of no new weekly high before departing? If so what about big corrections. Would you wait or is there more to it ? Sorry but I am somewhat confused. Thank you MR D.
I'll answer your question before I post the daily update.

You are speaking about the system on my site right? It's 12 days for a new rather than a weekly high. Basically, you input the 80 - 120 breakout and just exit in case you don't receive a new high (or low in case you're short) for 12 consecutive days. So you're basically leaving a lack of follow through.

I am not religiously trading this system with this thread, I am just following the essentials of system's 1 and 2 carefully and making remarks. I don't suggest you religiously follow my system , rather I recommend that you read them, take what sounds good to you, change it as you see fit, test it on your own and make it your own. In my case I might go to 15 days or longer before departing when the market was only staying flat, but when there was a very, very big move against me backed by a shift in market sentiment I'd exit much earlier, possibly after as little as 5 to 8 days.

Anyhow I aim to begin of using a leverage of 1:1. If it closes above 1.3700 I'll add another lot which makes it 2:1, and if it continues I'll add yet another lot and take it into 3:1. I might even leverage as large as 5:1 in a really powerful, long-lasting trend, but no longer than that. I consider break even or even a little loss a bad year. A 30% gain on my account a nice and respectable year, and 100% gain to be awesome (with trend following those years happen now and again).

[Giuseppeypunpk]

The market closed about an hour ago at roughly 1.3640 so it's up by roughly 70 pips today.

If anyone is interested there was a fantastic article on forexblog.org now http://www.forexblog.org/2010/09/bullish-on-the-euro.html I hope they are right.

It is always great once the news affirms the position, but that I never trade it. You see, all you can know (I believe ) is the way the market'must' react to the fundamentals, but it does not always react they way it'should'. Thus, even if you can predict what the fundamentals will state it does not mean you can forecast what the market's response will be.

The sole fundamental I will look at is sentiment indexes. OandA states 60.44percent of retail traders are short right now. I think that the majority of small retail traders are trying to pick a top and the big money must be on the opposite side of this, so I consider that a bullish sign also. But finally it's about what the market really does, it's always about what the market really does.

[Popklipk]

Thanks David, I re-read the Strange 1 and 2 methods and that I understand better what you're trying to do. I enjoy the easy and straight forward way everything is explained by you. I am trying to frame these longer term methods to fit me as you say and Its coming together quite nicely. Thank you David for all your help. Regards MR D.

[Giuseppeypunpk]

Thanks David, I re-read the Strange 1 and 2 approaches and that I know better what you're trying to do. I enjoy the easy and straight forward manner you explain everything. I am trying to frame these longer term approaches to match me as you say and Its coming together quite well. Thanks David for all your help. Regards MR D. Thanks MR D. You truly need to frame these proven methods to suit you. A mix of the first two systems suits me and my personality and goals so for me after this trade is proving to be rather easy. I plan on writing down exactly what features I think that the best edges and trading systems have after and let you see the listing if you prefer?

Anyway, the market has moved a lot today only to close to the location it opened at. But I'll count it 1 day with no new high.

[cokslan88]

Ah missed the thread David, good I found it subscribed. Fantastic luck mate!

[Popklipk]

Yes David I agree following along is worry free and pretty much . I'll want to see everything you write as you go along. When I'm not glued to this computer I make more money. I got in at 1.3350 rather than went into drawdown.It went up right away and then re-traced almost back to even and now roughly 270 pips up without a stress. Thats significant Thanks David. best regards Darrell

[Giuseppeypunpk]

Ah missed the thread David, good I found it eventually, subscribed. Good luck mate! Thanks guy

[Giuseppeypunpk]

Yes David I concur following along is basicly stress free and fairly much mechanical. I'll want to see everything you compose as you go along. When I am not glued to the pc, I make more money. I got in at 1.3350 and never moved into drawdown.It went up right off and then re-traced back to now and even roughly 270 pips up without a stress. Thats so important Thank you David. Best regards Darrell Glad you caught the trend early and got in at a good price, it's always nice when that happens. Nevertheless a word of advice. Do not expect no retracement it's not. It's pretty much impossible to select and exact top or bottom, so if the price goes from it does not mean you were'incorrect'. Basically you're right if you can call the direction of the long-term trend and can remain with it until you get a proper lack of follow through signal or a trend reversal signal.

Anyway its only 7:45pm but it's Friday, I am home from work and going call that the near for the week in the united kingdom.

The commerce is now around 380 pips in profit. The market is around 1.3770 which is above 1.3700. I said if the market closed above 1.3700 I'd buy another lot, and that's exactly what I have done. Lot number 2 long at 1.3770(ish).

I do not recommend using leverage above 1:1 to start with, but if the trade continues to move your way I believe that you can add lots until you're leverage somewhere between 3:1 and 5:1.

As a side note, according to OandA, 62.82percent of retail traders are short - retail shorts now out amount retail longs by almost 2 to 1. I believe the significant money must be on the opposite side of these tradesr and that the retail traders are just hoping to select the top. Finally they will (by chance ) select the top because all tendencies eventually finish. But whilst the trend is set up it's more likely to continue than not and I do not think you can say much more than that. In fact, when a strong trend appears on a large liquid market like the EUR/USD it actually requires a lot to stop it. But that still does not mean it could not finish in the next five minutes, only that it is more likely to continue than not.

Good trading thanks for all your replies

[PmincesaLaelilay]

The egies of the thread could create lots of traders sucsesful if only they had patience enough to accompany them. Quite valueable egies that many can find some thing useful in. I locate that the exit methods interesting that may probably improve my trading. Thank you for sharing.

[PmincesaLaelilay]

Glad you captured the trend and got in at a great price, it is always nice when that happens. However a friendly word of advice. Don't anticipate no retracement to be the norm, it is not. It is pretty much impossible to pick and precise top or bottom, so if the price goes against it doesn't mean you were'wrong'. Essentially you're right if you're able to call the management of this long-term trend and can remain with it till you get a suitable lack of follow through signal or a trend change signal.

Anyhow its only 7:45pm here but it is Friday,... I wonder have you attempted to exchange that the I egy using piramiding not just opening one position since it's written today??

[Giuseppeypunpk]

94915
I wonder have you attempted to exchange the I egy with piramiding not only opening one position as it is written today?? I am actually trading using pyramiding now. However, not pyramiding on each new high near are important. I said I would add another lot if the price closed above 1.3700 and it did, it closed at 1.3770 (UK 8pm) where I included another position. I'll add a third position on a close above 1.4200.

[PmincesaLaelilay]

94915
I'm actually trading utilizing pyramiding now. But maybe not pyramiding on each new high close those I believe are important. I said I'd add another lot if the price closed above 1.3700 also it did, it closed at 1.3770 (UK 8pm) where I included a different position. I will add a third position on a close above 1.4200. I believe also that 1.4200 should act as a powerful resistance. And like I exchange mechanicaly, but som component of the positions I handle more active. If price will be strugling to maneuver through that amount I will close part of the positions and will reenter after some retrace and when price starts to go up again. It's just a vision and it may not happen. If it will it just will be naturaly.
1.3834 appears also a remarcable degree for me
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1519364206255672554.png
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15193642081262944781.png

[Giuseppeypunpk]

94915It's great if you're able to get in at a better price, however suggests that awaiting retracements works on stocks but not on currencies. With pairs such as the EUR/USD that the price is more inclined not come back that produce a retracement and to keep going. That does not mean it wo retrace though.

[Popklipk]

94915Hey David I in with just 1 lot and I stay there with just 1. I am a conservative trader and try to not get greedy. I won't ever allow a winner to completely disapear. I visit a re trace happening now but not overly stressed. Take care All and trading.

[Giuseppeypunpk]

94915
Hey David I'm still in with only 1 lot and usually I stay there with only 1. I am a trader and attempt to not get greedy. BUT, I won't ever let a winner. I visit a re trace occurring now but not overly worried. Take care All and trading.
Thanks for the reply and I hope the trade works out to you.

Personally, I will let a winner to evaporate. I will not take the trade off the table if I feel that the trend remains in place and there is signs of it'following through'. This will mean I'll find a loss instead of a win but there is nothing particular about trading. It is all about the probabilities, and there is more opportunity with it than against it whether the trend is set up.

Now was the first big down day of the trade, the market has closed around 1.3680, first lot remains about 290 pips in profit, next lot is about -90 pips beneath water. So I'm now only 200 pips up despite being almost 400 pips up a few days back.

Anyhow, that is 1 to the number of days with no new high countertops. I'm not to bothered by the fact that the lot I entered is 90 pips under water, after all, as I said earlier in this thread: it is almost impossible to pick an exact top or bottom, except by chance. Therefore trades being in the red at sometime in their life do not necessary mean there were transactions.

[Giuseppeypunpk]

94915Well, the market closed about 30 minutes ago (I set it as 8pm GMT) at about 1.3845 so that is another new high. This trend has been strong.

First lot was clicked at 1.3390 455 pips
Second lot was clicked at 1.3770 75 pips
That is a total of 530 pips. I am hoping it's going to last for a very long time without a doubt some pips will need to be handed back when I exit.

Hope nobody bailed from the transaction yesterday...

[Giuseppeypunpk]

94915Just discovering the price is stalling now at the 50.0 Fibbo line. Not a motive though, not for me. I'll bond on a large weekly candle, either 2 or 3 weeks without a new large, or a major change in market sentiment as measured by OandA's open positions ratio.

[Giuseppeypunpk]

94915That's another new high close @ 1.3930. This tendency has been strong so far and can't continue. But while it stays there's more opportunity with it than against it. There were 8 new highs in the last ten trading days! If a person can not make money trading the market in those conditions with such a powerful tendency I doubt they can make money. Incidentally, according to OandA's open position ratio, that is precisely what most retail Forex traders are doing at this time, swimming and losing against against the tide. The majority of them happen to be short. It's food for thought eh? In case the majority of OandA's traders are retail traders and they have been net short during a trend afterward who is on the side of those losing trades? It must be the large players as well as the associations. Below are my ideas on this if anybody is interested http://www.myforexdot.org.uk/whyretailforexiswrong.html

I can see why most traders lose also, I'm beginning to feel the urge to spend the trade off now so I do not lose my winnings. That is psychological not logical. The market price is making new highs (that is a powerful bullish signal). The last 2 weekly candles have closed over 1.5% over the preceding weeks high (that is another powerful bullish signal). And retail Forex is net short (that is another powerful bullish signal). Yet despite those circumstances I'm feeling the desire to close a very long... Not gonna do it however.

So anyway, is anybody still trading this upward movement, how are you all doing?

[Giuseppeypunpk]

94915First time I contemplated taking off this trade. The EUR/USD has gone through the 1.4000 mark, stalled and dropped around 70 pips in one hour or so.

There isn't any technical change signal from either momentium (that would call for a week) or deficiency of new highs (that would require 2 to 3 weeks), but sentiment appears to be shing... OandA say 54.31% of traders are short the EUR/USD which is still a bullish signal although nowhere near as strong as it has recently been. Most retail traders are usually erroneous. In the event the Open positions ratio reveals retail Forex web I'll close the trade. I will enter long again if, following a correction, the price makes another new high.

[Giuseppeypunpk]

94915Possibly simply made a mistake and bailed out at 1.3913

[cokslan88]

94915
Possibly just made a terrible error and bailed out in 1.3913 Well if that is what the system stated then it is not a mistake right?

[Popklipk]

94915Yes David I'm Out at 1.3950 to get a 600 pip trade And this is my biggesr pip gain ever. I was going to depart at 1.4000 but that I just could not wait. Anyhow great trade and it was due for a correction. Good luck all MR D.

[Giuseppeypunpk]

94915
Yes David I am Out at 1.3950 for a 600 pip trade And this is my biggesr pip gain ever. I had been going to depart at 1.4000 but I simply could not wait. Anyhow trade and it was due for a correction. Great luck all MR D.
Really? Congrats guy, to have obtained your win is quite an accomplishment. Can you believe? How long have you been trading by the way?

[Giuseppeypunpk]

94915
Well if that's what the machine said then it is not a mistake right? Not actually, I neglected to practice what I preached and bent my very own principles

I had been going to exit on a a large weekly red candle. Or the market failing to making a new high for 2 to 3 weeks. Or retail traders going net based on the OandA open positions ratio. None of those events have actually happened although the open positions ratio dropped sharply but failed to proceed beyond the 50 mark but I thought it was about to (however it did not ). I'll want to get back into a long position on a new high supplying it's backed by retail trader sentiment.

[Popklipk]

94915Hey David Thanks guy. I've been trading curriencies for 4 decades, But I have traded stocks since 1998 using fundamentals. I did all the stupid things as everybody else until I begin to look for an edge and found the tendency to be the edge for me. At least in curriencies because of the tendencies. I like what you are doing the way. I understand we neglected to follow through to the exit egy however this is the reason they call us HUMANS. We can on a pullback that is fantastic. With trader sentiment. I am also trying some things with the weekly and yearly percentage just like you mention about the 1.5 percent before entering. I will keep you posted if I find something. Congratulation on your pleasant win also. Regards Darrell

[socmegalo]

94915
Yes David I'm outside at 1.3950 for a 600 pip commerce And that is my biggesr pip gain . I was going to depart at 1.4000 but that I simply couldn't wait. Anyhow it and commerce was surely due for a correction. Good luck all MR D.

Good one Mr D -- I have discovered that trades such as this one test your patience and discipline to the limited -- how many time did you wished to depart it before you attained your prefer profit goal?
Regards

[PmincesaLaelilay]

94915I have also closed one third of the general size and profit at 1.3926. And I will be reentering in a better price once I see some service forming. Actually I haven`t anticipated strong support at 1.4 somehow, however as it might n`t close above even on 4H TF. .

[Popklipk]

94915Hey Due WILD DOG, I felt pretty comfortable until the pip full got pretty high as well as the last day things got pretty volatile. That is an indiion of significant money planning to take profit. The very reason we've got retracements the majority of the time. Just my opinion.I think next time I will attempt to take some off the table and then lock it up and just add to the trade following the retrace. Based when to reunite in. Check out his website too. Very well thought out. Thank you again. Enjoy your title reminds me of me. Regards

[Popklipk]

94915Good Job Saintsurfer for hanging in and just closing a trade that is tight. Probably what I should have done. I just saw all of the volatility and believed if the dogs aren't sure of leadership then some money is attempting to take a profit near the end of the week. I look to get back in when a number of Davids conditions are satisfied. Have a Fantastic weekend everybody Regards Mr D

[Giuseppeypunpk]

94915
I only watched all of the volatility and thought when the big dogs aren't sure of leadership then some big money is attempting to take some profit close to the close of the week. That has been pretty much the same for me. I said I'd exit on a large weekly candle, either two or three weeks without a new high, or so the open positions ratio. It was hovering between approximately 62-55.

Then the market hit stiff resistance at 1.4000 and began falling like a stone and also the ratio got to approximately 53%. So I thought that is it gonna go to 50 and produce an exit signal in the upcoming few hours, may as well not give any pips left and back then. But it never did quite drop to 50% or below and shouldn't have exited, I will want to get back and go but I might never get back in at the price I jumped out at.

[Giuseppeypunpk]

So, who is considering looking to becoming a long EUR/USD position anytime soon then?

I want back in. But I'm torn between entering on a pull back backed by increased bearish sentiment from retail Forex and entering on a close above 1.4000, additionally backed by bearish retail sentiment.

I believe I'll go for the subsequent, it's much safer. Going long during a retracement is trying to pick the bottom, and the bottom can be a long way away...

So what (if anything) is everybody waiting for next week?

[PmincesaLaelilay]

For me personally any price, lower compared to the price I closed at(1.3926) is okay, even though it will go even down for a while. If it will resume up without stronger corection it's also okay, I simply will keep what I have probably without incorporating. Anyway I shut only 1 third of those positions and the rest will be kept till fad change.
I also have opened a smaller part at 1.3850 back and have a buy limit order at 1.3800
Any price is great until the trend hasradically changed.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15193641801048672393.png

[Giuseppeypunpk]

The market is now at 1.3930 and approximately 57% of traders are short EUR/USD - I think that the market is therefore more likely to break on the upside than to the down.

I've decided my next course of action would be to go long if I receive a close above 1.4000. I could go long if/when the price falls another 50 pips or so and therefore return in a much better price than that I exited at, or perhaps just go now and have a hit of approximately 20 pips, but there is more risk like that.

To people following this thread who are still investing in the market and waiting for a dip I will them the best of luck, allow me to know when you enter, it will be interesting to learn how another move pans out for everybody. Good luck

[Popklipk]

Hey everyone I am trying to re-enter around 1.3817 which is roughly 1.5% re trace from it's high. But I will be patient and try to wait patiently for it to drop a little more and get in on the way up so I will not be contrary to the immediate tendency. If the cot goes to 59-60% could be a little better because big money greed likes to come in against retail traders around those #s. Also by waiting for it to go below my entry is that it might go considerably reduced and then it would be re think time. May not happen with feb,-mid march resistance at roughly 1.3850. So for me the word is PATIENCE. Fantastic fortune all MR D

[Giuseppeypunpk]

Hey Mr D

The market has dropped well under 1.3817 this morning and is hoovering about that price right now! (11:50am UK time)

Are you planning on taking a lengthy trade? If so do let us know the price you take the trade at any how you do

[JokemOkem]

Everyone talk about trend trading:

at this time, it's not quite as essential as narrative reading!

I'm a newbie too.
After months reside practice in Foreign Exchange, it seems like I was back into my youth,

Reading Tales regular!
Any trend could be reversed and interrupted immediately by any nice fairy tale!

Much like now,A fairy tale like QE2 made the entire world crazy over month!

Today, it's meaningless to talk about trend trading aside from tale reading!

[Popklipk]

Hey David I,m not back in yet and I just don,t feel comfortable now. Yes the price lowered and looks cheap but cot didn,t help and I see no real reason yet. I do have a buy stop @ 1,3915 and if it hits it and does good ok but a big red candle and I am out. We will see. Whats your ideas David? Enjoy your imput. MR D

[Popklipk]

Hello FXFtime, Please let me respond to your post. First welcome to this thread. May I state that the retail trader needs a border and the trend really is a little edge and perhaps the only true edge we have. Major cash moves the markets and people must to look for the footprints. They do a lot to hid these steps along with the little things you see experienced traders doing is to try to follow those steps. Example longer period frames reveals the fundamental direction of the market and it doesn,t turn into a moment as you suggest, It may retrace but should you study and work hard you'll be able somewhat to stick to the (trend) big cash. I know a guy who sells below the 20sma and buys above it and does well with a few practiced timing using the daily charts. So please be patient and discover ways to conserve your account and not always methods to make money yet. Oh I forgot you are from Thailand. My spouse is out of Nongbualamphu. Beautiful country I seen many times.Sawadee Kop. MR D PS The Thai Baht is murdering the US Dollar.

[Giuseppeypunpk]

Everybody talk about fad trading:

Right now, it's not as important as narrative reading!

I am a newbie too.
After months live clinic in Currency Market, it looks like I was back into my youth,

Reading Tales regular!
Any fad could be interrupted and reversed instantly by any nice fairy tale!

Just like today,A fairy tale similar to QE2 made the whole world crazy over month!

Today, it's meaningless to talk about fad trading aside from tale reading! But you'll never really understand the full story by'narrative reading' as you put it. What I believe is this. Suppose the EUR/USD was at 1.25 and all the stories were negative and you knew what'should' occur in such conditions would be for the EUR/USD to collapse into about 1.00 to 1.

But then say, China's central bank for example determined that a) it needed to possess Euros and b) it thought 1.20 was a great price to buy them at and it was in fact eager to keep buying provided the price was less than 1.40 to 1 that is where (for trade reasons) it needed the price to be. Do you think they would tell you this'narrative'? Or would they keep that'narrative' to themselves and let you choose the otherside of their trades and lose your cash?

In this case you could find that despite all your stories and clever analysis some authentic solid support forms in 1.20 and the market rallies to 1.40 from the upcoming few months. Now who is to say this isn't too far away from the facts about what's just happened? My point is that it does not matter either way, whether it's going up really long because you can't always understand why it's going up and what the motivation behind the central bank's driving it up is.

In case you don't have any remarks and are eager to follow which way the price is going you're tend to have the ability to trade what you see. However, if you've got all these remarks when the price does not fit your mind will try and make you see what you think from the charts anyway and you're going to end up investing that. And if you're not among those connected large players who get's to know what is going on then your own beliefs and truth may be far apart.

[Giuseppeypunpk]

Hey David I,m back in yet and I just don,t feel comfortable now. Yes the price lowered and seems cheap but cot didn,t help and I see no real reason yet. I do have a buy stop @ 1,3915 and if it strikes it and does great ok but a big red candle and I am outside. We'll see. Whats your ideas David? Enjoy your imput. MR D I am still believing the trend is upward and I should not have broke the rules and exited.

But I am stressed the resistance at 1.40 might be very, really'hard'.

Was likely to wait until I got a good solid close above 1.40 to affirm the resistance was taken out before I entered. Now I am unsure...

I'll post when I enter. How about you D? Any more ideas on it?

[Popklipk]

I am in @ 1.3917 and it do not look great. 1.4000 ish is a powerful zone and it only went up yesterday at the mention of over QE. I will maintain the position and maybe even allow it to move against me personally a little.If it neglects to split this 1,4000 zone I will likely ease out of it.My opinion is to examine yesterdays low and see whether service is contested. Seems like a lot of bulls around 1.3900. In addition, I believe if price stays over the 50sma over the 4 hour chart then the retrace is going to be little, but over all it is way above on the Daily. So I am bullish but careful. David please check your E mail Regards Mr D

[Popklipk]

It disapeared although I replied to your post David. Anyhow I am in At 1.3917 however 1.4000 ish zone is really powerful. Please check you e-mail regards MR D

[Popklipk]

I see my Article That I Shall blame it on being over 50 (old age)
Regards

[Giuseppeypunpk]

I'm in @ 1.3917 and it don't look great. 1.4000 ish is a strong zone and it only went up at the mention of more QE. I will keep the position and maybe also allow it to go against me a little.If it fails to break this 1,4000 zone I will probably ease from it.My opinion is to look at yesterdays low and determine if service is contested. Looks like a lot of bulls around 1.3900. In addition, I think if price remains over the 50sma on the 4 hour chart then the retrace is going to be small, but most importantly it is way above on the Daily. So I'm bullish but...
Well good luck with it. I'm also tempted to go into but haven't yet. Basically, I think markets are random on short time frames along with the real edge comes from the long-term underlying trend which is determined by what the cash is really doing, not what you think the large money should be doing according to your own personal understanding of the fundamentals.

At this time the trend is definitely up about the EUR/USD (however that does not mean that can't change in the next five minutes). There are only two ways to trade the trend once you get a clear sign on it's direction. Either you wait for a price retrace seeking to buy low and sell high (or vice versa). Or you wait for a new intense looking to buy high and sell much higher (or vice versa). Personally, I favor the subsequent on currencies (which is why I haven't entered yet) and the prior on stocks. But the two ways, I think, are sound.

For what it is worth about 60 percent of small retail traders are brief http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/open-position-ratios so I believe it's likely that the trend is fairly strong. The other signs seem good also. The price is near 6 monthly highs or more and the upward candles are the larger ones (frequently during an upward trend they'll be a lot of small down candles in a row as the retail traders evaporate the large underlying trend, followed by a few large candles when a few large traders come in the market to take another side of their transactions ).

You have obviously got a fair bit of trading experience Mr D. Can you do this complete time?

[Popklipk]

I made most of my cash although 94914David, I really do whole time to trade. I still do much more in stocks but I invest 20 minutes every day on them and the remainder of the time searching for a means to try to tame the curriencies.I dropped 19,000 trading curriencies like I trade stocks about 4 decades ago. Ever since that time I hit the books for the next 3 decades and I am finally profitable but I trade the EURUSD and USDJPY. I made a few and my loss back. I understand cash management is crucial and the reduced margins in the USA on the OCT 18, will create volatility a bit safer. Make it slower but lose it slower. I don't look at charts smaller than 4 hour thats just for entrance. I really like the weekly and if people would only take 2 weeks and look just at the chart. DO things like test the percent re trace weekly or monthly. What percent does 1st week of this month move. Or the second week and ETC.. Then cross reference that with the Daily and maybe the 4 hour. You see exactly what the big boys are doing at a particular time. I just trade 4-6 times per month and thats a lot. I am hoping to find a bit better at position trading rather than swing trading. I need more time for less work and traveling. David are you close London, we will travel there in the winter to visit with friends. Regards Darrell ps you're right and that I think buying over the high could have been safer.

[Popklipk]

94915Hey guys I'm out at 1.3350 upward 33 pip rather than many traders will admit mistakes. Idiotic although not crushing. I look to enter higher and try to transform me to a longer term position trader. Sorta like those turtles David speaks of. Regards all

[bummaco53]

94915Hi men,

Firstly, let me say THANK YOU to Davidee for starting this thread being generous enough to share your own thoughts. And to the others for their views.

Just found this thread last night Aussie time. I like the simplicity of the Idea. So I will be a regular writer ( possibly a part-time contributer). I am new to forex still in a learning curve, but I am really starting to earn some trades.

I always expected trading something along these lines so that I did not have to sit down in the front of a screen all night - best commerce time in Oz is 8pm - 3am. Not my idea of fun! Trading the longer term charts makes sense. And, as has been said, the daily weekly show signs of spikes.

I had faith that the 1.4000 barrier would be broken stay breached, so I jumped in at 1.3940 last night. As I assessed my entrance price while composing this the pips only topped 100. YIPPEE!! Now it just has to keep on going. I'm trailing a stop at a discreet space - currently around 200 pips. I intend to leave till I hit break even this trailing. Then I will leave it there till a 50 interval LWMA line meets it (likely in about 12 days by my figure ). Then it will be adjusted daily to the line until either stopped out or I believe that the commerce has reversed since something similar to fundamentals has shifted.

I have also entered the other great, currently trending currencies;
Aud/Usd @ 0.9879 Usd/Chf @ 0.9628

Just to keep tabs on them test my exit plan I also entered:
Usd/Jpy @ 81.78 Gbp/Aud @ 1.6006 1.6039 (they have great, but not great tendencies )

I added a second lot to the GA commerce since it looked to be finishing a little retrace this morning gave a better entrance than my first last night (now averaging 20 pips). In future I would look to input after a couple of displays on the daily by following it all the way to the 30 or 15 minutes, then drawing a trend line the line.

These 4 trades all have smaller stops compared to the EU - 47 for its Chf (I entered near the top of the lengthy candle at 11:45 last night now trail SL at 110) up to 120 for the others. Lots to be more to be gained, although lost.

Contemplating these transactions were jumped into rather than waiting for a good entrance I'm very impressed with the concept. As I write they have gone over 300 pips favorable.

Oh yeah. I am still demonstration trading, so all that can get hurt is my ego; and thats been ruined several times .

Lets see what the market decides. Cheers,
Mick

[Giuseppeypunpk]

94915
Hey guys I'm outside at 1.3350 upward 33 pip and not many traders will admit mistakes. Not crushing but dumb. I seem to enter higher and attempt to change me into a longer term position trader. Sorta like those turtles David speaks of. Regards all Well it appears to be holding up pretty well above 1.40 along with the GBP/USD is managing to stay over 1.60. I will likely go long one lot EUR/USD when it closes over 1.40 when I home from work providing the extended short ratio is OK. Yesterday you got out , but hey, at least it was not a loss. I don't live anywhere near London (thankfully), I'm in Aberdeen, Scotland.

[Giuseppeypunpk]

94915Right that's me at 1.4081. Price me 168 pips X both lots I'd built up with pyramiding. If I had only stuck to the principles I would have obtained another 168 pips for the rankings.

[Popklipk]

Everyone and 94915Hey David, I'm traveling over the next 10-12 days. Will contact here once I return. Great luck whatsoever. God Bless MR D

[cokslan88]

Hey David how's things? Trading this trend system?

Cheers,
-

[Giuseppeypunpk]

Hey David how's things? Still trading this trend system?

Cheers,
-soso
Hello soso,

I was going to post now that the pair has started moving again and there could be something worth writing. I stayed long that the 2nd time like I never got the large red per day candle to shut, or the lack of direction to get a round 2 and a half an hour, or a shift in retail FX sentiment to depart.

I made a mistake by shutting out the two lots I had built up in 1.3913 just to enter a single lot again in 1.4081. Now the market is about 1.4230 it is nevertheless a profit but not nearly what I would have made if fear had not made me bailout for a moment.

Fear mostly comes from gambling to much in my view, and from believing this transaction just has to be a winner. Sure, we all know that we'll need to have a loss sometime in this game; but there is a bias against being open to taking the loss now on this specific trade, the impression is that trade just HAS to be one of the winners, but it does not. Control the greed and the fear will go off by itself.

Anyhow I think mechnical trend trading was demoned together with the consequences of pulling from winning trades to ancient, which I did not initially plan to demone but I'm glad as I did as a record of me performing it'll be eternally on the world wide web to remind me to not do it ever again!

[Giuseppeypunpk]

Well, trader sentiment has now shifted so I'm outside; if the sentiment continues to be retail traders internet long on the EUR/USD I might short the pair next week to examine trading using sentiment. Should probably be about the trading forum and not this one. Thanks to everybody for their comments and thoughts.

- David.

[Popklipk]

Hey David, I am back from my trip. I see you are still in it and I want you all the very best. I've been doing a little swing trading while off and only trade 1 or 2 times weekly. Fantastic luck on your opinion technique.

[Giuseppeypunpk]

Hey David, I am back from my trip. I see you are still in it and that I want you all the best. I've been doing a tiny swing trading whilst away and only trade 1 or 2 times a week. Good luck on your sentiment method. Mr D. Hi Mr D,

Hope the trip was good?

Anyways, yeah, I am thinking of taking a short EUR/USD commerce based on sentiment.

There are 3 signs I use for taking four and trades for exiting. For inputting -

1. A greater closure than has been observed in four weeks (or a decrease close than has been observed in at least four weeks for short trades).
2. A weekly candle with a body so large that movements of this size are typically only seen many times per year, that's a sign that the'big money' is flowing in the direction of this candle.
3. Sentiment, or instead taking the opposite side of retail trader sentiment (this major money that transfers the FX market requires someone to take another side of the transactions and will let the market do whatever it has to perform to dupe retail traders and other people to it). More on this here: http://www.myforexdot.org.uk/whyretailforexiswrong.html

For departing I use any of the above 3 signs from the opposite direction of my commerce (in this instance it was retail trader sentiment http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/open-position-ratios ) or that I will sometimes use a fourth option that's a lack of follow through, lack of follow by being no new high (or low in the case of shorts) for a couple of weeks.

I am thinking of taking a sentiment trade and would like to post how it's going live (supplying forum are not sick of me doing that by now) on the Forex trading forum since I probably shouldn't have put this into trading conversation, sorry about this FF.

[Popklipk]

It appears to me you may want the proportion of buyers to sellers a little more lopsided,like possibly 57-60%or more before accepting a transaction. The big weekly down candle will probably be persuasive enough. If you post from the section that is interactive or elsewhere please let us know. I'm working on a complied mathematical method and if it is successful I can post it here somewhere.But it appears to work better with my swing trading. GoodLuck David consistently Regards

[Giuseppeypunpk]

Hi Mr. D,

The forum sentiment trading thread is here https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/trading-system-and-egies/72-robinho-system-power-1x8.html

I'm primarily a trend follower and learn more about trend after than I do about sentiment; but I am attempting to learn more about sentiment.