Has the latest event with CHF affected your outlook on forex?

[AlvamoGokaime]

I took a step back from Forex for a while nonetheless planning on beginning a new live account following week. Now, I feel the CHF situation has affected a lot of people, individuals who have been buying it'll be rolling in money today a great deal of people have lost all their accounts being on the wrongside of a transaction. Has this influenced you in anyway? Is it a normal trading week for you? Or are you rethinking your trading/investing in Currency Market?

[mummumgwz]

Yes it has. If central banks are allowed to drop bombs like this without warning leaving no liquidity in the market, stops imply nothing and you'll lose your tail. I am seriously considering abandoning Currency Market and going back to commodities futures where you will have less likelihood of a 30% drop in moments. I don't want to. This is my favorite market. I will wait until I depart to see if there are any repercussions on the SNB on how this was managed by them. I was trading in the futures market throughout the flash crash and it wasn't even close to this event in dimension.

[moklixxa69]

Which merchandise have you trade in the upcoming market?

[mummumgwz]

Which product have you trade in the upcoming market? Mostly CL (light sweet crude). I enjoyed NQ (nasdaq), and TF (Russell 2000) alot too. I've been searching into commodities for some time but I haven't felt I knew enough about the fundamentals of these. I've been studying before I trade the ag futures. I should mention that I exchanged GC (gold) too. But I could never get a hold on it intraday. It had been to whippy for my own taste.

[mummumgwz]

quote True, but folks were known to be secured in to their losing positions for days due to restrict movements. I believe, currency is more flexible to remain competitive with interbank, but there continue to be intraday-day no commerce breakers. Yeah grin I am aware of some of those locked in positions that could not get out. I was being general.

Can you elaborate on what you said in your last paragraph; I believe, currency is more flexible to remain competitive with interbank, but there continue to be intraday-day no commerce breakers?

Thanks smile

[mummumgwz]

quote Check CME rules. I thinkthey stop trading after limit moves, but only for a few minutes. Oh you're speaking of the CME. Ok. Yes I've been seeing the market during these times (fortunately not in a transaction though). Everything just seems to lock up. But like you said for a few minutes. And when there is any change in price when things get rolling it is no where near as extreme of what we saw.

[abmaham1407]

I took a step back from Forex for a while nonetheless planning on starting a new live account next week. I believe that the CHF situation has affected a lot of people, people that have been buying it'll be rolling in cash now a lot of people have lost all of their accounts being on the wrongside of a transaction. Has this affected you in anyway? Can it be a trading week for you? Or are you rethinking your trading/investing in FX? Such news is part of the Forex game!

[oxxyo1]

Can it be a standard trading week next week for you? Or are you rethinking your trading/investing in Currency Market? It is a standard trading week. The reality is, news (being bad or good is just an issue of the negative you are on) can kill any company but at a real company you have to pay at the full amount, no leverage on your side along with the brokers accepting the risk in extreme cases such as this. The FX market is my income, I've got another one from a QA system I am renting to food producers and that I see a lot of similarities and FX seems to be a lot less risk to me. Maybe employees or employees see that distinct, but I am self employed since a very long time so that I don't possess that pillow individuals got used to.

And please don't forget: that the SNB choice affects a lot of different markets, too. Including companies that are real. A buddy of mine just cancelled his switzerland excursion in favor of austria, he will probably not the only one (hotels, airlines, trains, restaurants, shops...).

[Semgio]

I took a step back from Forex for a while however thinking about beginning a new live account next week. I feel that the CHF situation has affected a lot of people, individuals who were buying it will roll in cash today a lot of people have dropped all their accounts being on the wrongside of a trade. Has this affected you in anyway? Can it be a trading week next week for you? Or are you rethinking your trading/investing in forex? Indeed a lot of folks lost their accounts during the sudden CHF move on Thursday but in my view this is a bad time to take a step back from trading forex. Why?
1. The volatility is back - .
2. Not too long until new regulations will likely be implemented of these probably being diminished leverage. So, if a trader is to succeed with a account this would be an excellent moment.
Of course that those who understand how to trade profitable already, will exchange as before, and the ones that don't have a winning egy/system will not matter since they will lose no matter the leverage or account size.

For one, I wasn't affected by the CHF since I was in a short on EU. But I understand that the feeling of being in a losing trade from back in 2008, when I have not lost my account but a large percent of it.

[AlvamoGokaime]

quote Truly a lot of folks lost their accounts throughout the unexpected CHF move on Thursday but in my view this is a bad time to take a step back from trading forex. Why? 1. The volatility is back - this means money. 2. Not long until new regulations will likely be implemented of these being diminished leverage. Consequently, if a trader is to triumph with a small account this could be a very good moment. Of course that the ones who understand how to trade profitable previously, will trade as before, and those that do not have a winning egy/system... A lot of traders with small accounts including myself will battle with little to no leverage.

[oxxyo1]

quote The government wants you to take shovel and perform actual work rather than fancying yourself with all these get rich schemes. They simply want your tax money. They do not care how you make it.

@pinktrade: new regulations just because a couple of brokers went bust is somewhat unlikely. Its distinct to banks bankrupting and taking the market with them. Bad businesses die, better ones emerge or remain. Nothing new, nothing. A few brokers succeeded in managing their risks.

The effect on swiss companies is likely greater than on brokerage companies, they are just the first in line.

[camoxn1234]

My account got wiped out by the smart move of swiss. It was a small account where I was testing egies that are live. I can consider myself lucky. I am not giving up forex since I invested too much money and time.

[bolmenle]

Moves in this way affirm my view that Forex the FX market is the ideal way to protect yourself from the systemic risks of retail forex. Like many of us , I've traded all various time frames, but the longer you have your money at the market that the bigger the chance is for an major event to destroy your account.

These infrequent events occur all the time, and no one can predict or discontinue them. I attempt to keep the money in my brokerage accounts comparatively small, utilize leverage, and get in and out as quick as I can. It's much more labor intensive than trading term, and it's difficult, but I would have to be unfortunate to have my account wiped out.

[oxxyo1]

Moves like this affirm my view that Forex the FX market is the best way to protect yourself from the systemic risks of trading retail forex. Like most people here, I've traded all time frames, however the longer you have your cash in the market that the larger the chance is for an unpredicted major occasion to destroy your account. These rare events happen all the time, and nobody can predict or discontinue them. I attempt to keep the money in my brokerage accounts relatively small, use leverage, and get in and out. It's much more... I'm mostly with you. But THIS one was extreme. Long term or scalping didn't matter here, your SL was ignored as there was no price which came close. The liquidity dried up. To be fair: I wouldn't have anticipated such a behaviour starting a bloody war. Fortunately I'm scalping/short term trading the markets from 5 to ~9 (GMT), therefore I didn't had any trades open when the mayhem started. I'm trading that early since I really don't like news events.

[oxmla18cb]

I can't see how anything could change. Forex is risky period. You want to play you go to pay. :--RRB-.

[campixxo]

Moves like this affirm my view that Forex the FX market is the best way to protect yourself in the systemic risks of trading retail forex. Like most of us here, I've traded all different time frames, however the longer you've got your money at the market the bigger the chance is to get an major event to destroy your account. These events occur all of the time, and nobody can predict or discontinue them. I try and keep the money in my brokerage accounts relatively small, use high leverage, and get in and out. It's much more... I am not so sure. Scalping on the wrong side of the CHF pairs prior to the SNB announcement could have cleaned a trader out, particularly due to the enhanced position sizes that scalpers use for the moves. A long-term trend trader investing in a bundle of instruments with a risk per trade would have been hit but not to the exact same extent. By way of example, I took an extraordinary hit (despite using a stop at 1R) on USDCHF however with 0.5% commerce risk, the blowout was just a 1% drawdown but I was in great profit at that point. Worst case scenario for me would've been state a blowout that was 2%. That says a lot about how standing sizing acts as a highly effective risk management device irrespective of whether stops functioning or not.

For scalpers prior to a statement if they're holding a trade, I would suggest a hedge immediately prior to the announcement and then wait for the dust to settle before giving a limb of the Dollar. Stops aren't necessarily your friend in these black swan events but at least you have a level of legal recourse as opposed. Guaranteed stops are better although costly but are available through a few MM brokers.

This of course assumes your broker stays in business following the event which renders all strategies mute dependent on how everything plays out.

[mummumgwz]

All you people saying that this is anything but a serious major event have not been investing or you don't know your ass from a hole in the floor. This is a major occasion not just some normal event. Money could be lost in an event like this and was lost here. Get your head out of your ass and understand what's happened here.

JensG, I called this occasion a financial act of war on another forum but some said that announcement was on the top. I agree with you, this was a war like move on the part of the supposed neutral nation. That wasn't neutral, that has been competitive as hell.

[bolmenle]

You're right, if I had been unlucky to be on the wrong side of the occasion then yes, then it wouldn't have been pretty.

But as I am spending less time in the market I believe there is less chance of being subjected to such things, especially while I am not at the computer or I am asleep. It lets me sleep easier at night because I have shifted egies.

[campixxo]

You are right, if I was unlucky to be on the wrong side of this event then yes, then it wouldn't have been pretty. Because I am spending less time in the market I think there is less prospect of being subjected to such things while I am not at the computer or I am asleep. It lets me sleep easier at night because egies've shifted. Good to hear scottik. There have been a load of victims a week needing a hug that is good. This friggin. . bank!!!!!!

[bolmenle]

All you people saying that this was anything but a severe major event have not been trading too long or you don't know your ass from a hole in the floor. This was a major event not just some arbitrary event that is normal. Serous cash was lost here and could be lost in an event like this. Get your head out of your ass and know what has happened here. JensG, I called this event a financial act of war on a different forum but some said that statement was on the top. I concur with you, this was a war like move on the part of the Swiss the supposed neutral country.... No doubt it was severe, it was gigantic, it was egotistical, and it was brutal.

But large market moving/game altering events appear to occur with regularity, and will continue to do so since the world realises that the entire game is leveraged to the hilt and a crash is coming.

The announcement last year of Western QE was another illustration of a central bank coming out of the blue and altering the game.

In the words of MacGruber - The sport is changing, but the players will be the same.

[pkmikeki]

Market has always been barbarous and the market is right. That fact didn't alter. The real impact it had on me is that the impression I have using brokers. Some seem to be much better than others.

[campixxo]

The conspiracy theorist in me wonders exactly what quantum of effect was associated with the frequency robots to help a price move following the announcement. I would really like to know who had been last week's silent BIG winners. There are sharks I tells ya and Guppy's like me don't like it. :--LRB-

it's definately getting a more demanding sport over the years with developing central bank intervention and the dependence being made for QE's. Who reallly knows what's coming aside from string pullers themselves?

It is becoming so fast and furious nowadays, the guide traders among us are becoming a dying breed. As I saw the usdchf fall, at the time it took to the saliver to drip from my mouth and hit the keyboard it was Game over Man!!!!! ....we are now dealing with a different alien breed. The central bankers mostly come for us down here in Aus. :--LRB-

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[bolmenle]

The conspiracy theorist in me wonders what quantum of impact was related to the high frequency robots to assist such a price movement following the announcement. I would love to know who were last week's BIG winners. There are sharks I informs like me do not like it and Guppy's. :--LRB- It is definately getting a tougher sport over the years with growing central bank intervention as well as the dependence. Who reallly knows what's coming aside from string pullers? I am with you there.

How do news like that stay within the bank and not get leaked at all? If it is a act of war, did they let their banks in on the information before the action and let them adjust their positions? Did they inform their Allies? Did they inform the FED? Who knows, but you'd have to assume anyone else who they told prior, in addition to that the SNB made a fortune from it.

Haha - they mostly come at night... mostly.

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[campixxo]

haha - that they mostly come at night... mostly. *sniggers*...I like the let's build a fire and sing songs comment! The kind think everythings gonna be

[oxxyo1]

quote I'm with you . How do news like this stay inside the bank and not get leaked at all? When it is a act of war, did they let their banks in on the data before the action and allow them to adjust their positions? Can they tell their Allies? Can they tell the FED? Who knows, but you'd have to assume the SNB made a fortune from it, as well as anyone else who they advised prior While I admit it is very tempting, likely too tempting, not to exchange when you have such details. Lets remember that the SNB is sitting on a large sum of EUR, USD, GBP and likely other currencies. So the reduction in value of these influenced them .

Until I have evidence of the contrary, I'm prepared to believe the SNB had no other choice or simply suppressed the impact on the markets. We have to admit a peg to a currency undergoing QE doesn't make much sense and perhaps the ECB advised the SNB a bit too late of the QE programs, I wouldn't be surprised. In addition to this, I can't believe their doings are great for the swiss market, so it is merely logical to suppose either a no choice and/or effect choice that is underestimated.

[mubengomwz1988]

This week I'm sitting on my hands. We've Draghi's announcement re. We've got reporting from FX brokerages in Cyprus Tuesday, and there will be a string of companies, banks and hedge funds suffering very badly with this. Many will probably be shell shocked, so volumes may be very low, so price swings can be erratic. The whole world should rebalance against this move. We have no clue how much equity obtained wiped out , and we won't for a while. In this business I am, before anything else, a risk manager, and this week smells like trouble. Please be very careful if you decided to wade in.

[AlvamoGokaime]

Was anyone made cash and was short on USDCHF/EURCHF and here on the side of the CHF event? Seems like most folks I come accross were on the side.

[clamilacasago]

1 Attachment(s)
Was anyone here on the ideal side of the CHF event and was short on USDCHF/EURCHF and made money? Seems like most folks I come accross were on the side. YesI did!

[kambyk]

Congrats Olarian!

[imisioxmc]

Jim cramer on cnbc:
are people even supposed to be in this market? - talking to this ib's ceo (peterffy).
So what is your question again? :-)

[gavigika]

Yes I don't believe it wise to trade my own money.

I was brief the eurchf, and with good reason, however, looking back what if I had made an error. That would have been a significant part of my account wiped out.

Just don't know if it's worth it.

[oxxyo1]

Yes I don't think it wise to trade my own money anymore. I had been with great reason, and short the eurchf, but looking back what should a mistake had been made by me. That would have been a substantial portion of my account wiped out. Don't know if it's well worth it. May I propose trading before or pairs which aren't affected by their central banks at that time? There is typically enough movement to make some profitable short term trades before most of the news come out. Works for me.

Anyway: see the larger picture. Things like that won't happen.

[BUMBIBUM]

Has my outlook influenced on forex? The short answer is, no....it hasn't.

The SNB hasn't played on a level playing field for so long as I've been involved in FX trading, and almost certainly for quite a while before that. I forget the exact dates, but a few years ago the EUR/USD was stuck at the 1.30's for a protracted period, which had been fruing and induced me to not trade that cross until the impasse has been broken. Finally it was busted and in due course it had been revealed that it had been the SNB that caused this using their persistent interventions. I think from memory that the price of that workout was something like 30 percent of the Swiss GDP....and the market won in the end....as it'll always do. From that day on, I chose to never trade any CHF cross as the playing field was not a level one.

Of course we have seen QE from the FED and the BOJ and shortly possibly the ECB, but to some degree we're kept up to speed on what they're doing. For instance we knew beforehand that the FED likely went to'taper' the QE off until there was no need for this. The SNB nevertheless, deliberately mislead and tell blatant lies to the planet, and then, as we have seen, recklessly pull the rug out from under everyone....their own exporters and tourism sector comprised. And....the market wins....as it always will do. I've heard some economists saying that this latest attempt (the'peg') will have cost something like 80% of GDP now around.

The market is always right and it is going to always triumph!

For me personally, my exposure to the market is as restricted as I can make it. I don't trade CHF crosses and that I do not trade Yen crosses. Abe and Kuroda are way into uncharted territory with their bold action and the result is far, far from specific....so I will not expose my account to the Yen.

Also, my trading is short term and transactions are never made overnight, let alone over the weekend, and also the majority of my transactions are concluded within the hour....further limiting my exposure to the market forces.

Could I be caught out by some unforeseen event? ....yes of course I could....such is the character of the monster. However, I have done all that I reasonably can to limit my risks and exposure.

Having said that, I continue to chip away in the market, little by little. . .bit by little....same as it ever was!

[pauxxopwz]

Has the latest event with CHF influenced my outlook on Foreign Exchange? The short answer is, no....it hasn't. The SNB hasn't played on a level playing field for so long as I've been engaged before that, and for quite a while with FX trading. I forget the exact dates, but several years ago the EUR/USD was stuck in the 1.30's for a protracted duration, which had been fruing and induced me to not exchange this cross until the impasse has been broken. Finally it had been busted and in due course it had been revealed that it had been the SNB which has been causing this... Are you trading Genesis RJ?

[BUMBIBUM]

quote Are you still trading Genesis RJ? No.

Genesis is (imo) best suited to M5 or even M15 TF. I exchange exclusively on the M1 TF for the past year...

[gigimyfmeggy]

The thing I heard is a simple but economic concept. If a currency is currently trading close to a peg, market makers necessarily step out of the market through time. This is due to the math of trading. The situation exponentially worsens from the wake if the peg ever breaks.

A counter jolt can happen later sequentially stabilizing price action, directionally counter. Or diminishing the rate of decline/increase.

It is that simple.

[cybempunk666]

I think that it shows the significance of stops. I'm a swing trader and I had two trades hit my ceases and lose the majority of the profit I'd gained (still ended up at the dark ). HoweverI live to trade another day thanks to risk management and utilizing ceases.

I don't understand the best way to day traders/scaplers do it; I don't have the belly for this. I like putting in my commerce and (attempting to) fretting about it for some time. Props to ya'll who grasp those intraday charts

[pako199]

This event set the limit although I lost all the equilibrium and more, in different circumstances I would have financed the acc and continued to exchange. No funds for trading. Money that's been made in the economy that is real deserves a much better environment.