Statistical Probability Trading With Price Action

[gabuvi2]

Since January of 2006 the Gbp/Usd has moved between 170 and 179 pips 12 times counting last Friday. Two of the eleven occasions the day following such a move it transferred 234 pips and 257 pips. The other nine days following such a move as past Friday it had a range of 72 to 159 pips together with the average of the nine days being 104 pips. Of those nine days it just reached the mathematical R1 or S1 twice. It currently has a low of 1.9923 and the high of 1.9968 using a high low range of 45 pips. If it stays with in the 104 pip day after range it would hit 2.0027 on the upper side and 1.9864 on the bottom side. The very first day of the week on the average has a below average trading day. The Gbp/Usd for 2007 has a daily average range of 122 pips compared to 128 pips exactly the same period this past year. For 2006 the Gbp/Usd ended up using a 134 pip daily range average.

[gabuvi2]

Weekly range of motion for Your GbpUsd. Much like all currencies the previous 10 months or so the (RM) on a weekly and daily basis has gone up.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526871308725336414.jpg

[gabuvi2]

2006 Daily Range For Eur/Jpy was 93 pips
2006 Daily Range For Eur/Jpy for this time last year was 103 pips
2007 Daily Range For Eur/Jpy to date is 127 pips
2007 5 Day Daily Range For Eur/Jpy is 117 Pips
2007 10 Day Daily Range For Eur/Jpy is 116 pips
2007 20 Day Daily Range For Eur/Jpy is 104 pips
2007 55 Day Daily Range For Eur/Jpy is 133 pips

[gabuvi2]

The last 346 trading days since Jan. 1 2006 the GbpUsd has retraced to with in 7 pips of the following fib levels after the days low and high are established. This retracement either occurs the same day or within the next trading day.
23.6 fib 337 occasions or 97.4% of the period
38,2 fib 303 occasions or 87.6% of the time (it currently has retraced with in 7 pips of the level prior to the close of the day)
50.0 fib 269 occasions or 77.7% of the period
61.8 fib 225 occasions or 65% of this time.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1519482912.jpg

[gabuvi2]

Support and resistance where price action stalled or failed to pentetrate.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1519482914.jpg

[ilalgj]

Since January of 2006 that the Gbp/Usd has moved between 170 and 179 pips 12 times counting last Friday. Two of the eleven occasions the day following such a move it moved 234 pips and 257 pips. The other nine days following such a transfer as past Friday it had a range of 72 to 159 pips together with the average of those nine days being 104 pips. Of these nine days it only attained the mathematical R1 or even S1 twice. It currently has a low of 1.9923 and the high of 1.9968 using a top low range of 45 pips. If it remains with at the 104 pip day then range it would hit 2.0027 on the upper side and or 1.9864 on the base side. The very first day of the week on the average has a below average trading day. The Gbp/Usd for 2007 has a daily average range of 122 pips in comparison to 128 pips the same time last year. For 2006 the Gbp/Usd ended up using a 134 pip daily range average. Thank you for this information. What is more interesting is to determine (statistically also) the least average amount of pips transferred in a particular direction prior to the transfer solidified to a large dive/surge in this direction. Or the ordinary number of pips transferred in a direction prior to a big correction. This is how good AI works.

In addition, it is better in my view to study the NET amount of pips transferred up OR down rather than in total, because total pipage oscillated up and down doesn't actually tell you anything to use within an actual trade.

Great stuff, keep it coming!

[gabuvi2]

Very good points are working on that with gbp/usd but have not followed through completely on it. Advice stered just have to put it. My goal is to consistantly capture a portion of pips each day using gbp/usd gbp/jpy eur/jpy and appearing at other pairs that have some motion. Something that may cross using the Audy possibly eur/aud. I think that the Audy is looking to go bearish they're having some intense droughty (lack of rain)that will likely be effecting its currency.

[gabuvi2]

The average range between the high and low for the next currencies Involving 6pm eastern and 10pm eastern for 2007 is (for some this Could be the Initial 4hr candle is)

GbpUsd is 33 pips down from the 2006 Typical of 46 pips about a 38% decrease
EurJpy is 55 pips Upward from the 2006 Typical of 38 pips about a 50% Rise
GbbJpy is 83 pips Upward from the 2006 Typical of 56 pips Approximately a 50% increase

[gabuvi2]

2006 Daily Range For GBP/USD Has Been 134 pips
2006 Daily Range For GBP/USD for Now last Season was 134 pips
2007 Daily Range For GBP/USD to date is 121 pips
2007 5 Day Daily Range For GBP/USD is 105Pips
2007 10 Day Daily Range For GBP/USD is 107 pips
2007 20 Day Daily Range For GBP/USD is 112 pips
2007 55 Day Daily Range For GBP/USD is 114 pips

[gabuvi2]

Below are the ranges between the high and low of each 4 hour time period for your GbpUsd . These are US eastern.

6pm-10pm 33 pips
10pm-2am 30 pips
2am-6am 69 pips
6am-10am 65 pips
10am-2pm 52 pips
2pm-6pm 27 pip

The 2007 daily range for its GbpUsd thus far is 121 pips.

[gabuvi2]

Below are the ranges between the high and low of each 4 hour time interval for the EurJpy . All times are US oriental.

6pm-10pm 51 pips
10pm-2am 40 pips
2am-6am 55 pips
6am-10am 52 pips
10am-2pm 46 pips
2pm-6pm 30 pip

[gabuvi2]

Mondays retracement.

The last 360 trading times since Jan. 1 2006 the GbpUsd has retraced to with in seven pips of the following fib amounts after the days low and high are established. This retracement either occurs the identical day or over the next trading day.
23.6 fib 97.8 percent of the trading days.
38,2 fib 87.5 percent of the trading days.
50.0 fib 77.5 percent of their time trading times.
61.8 fib 65.3 percent of the trading days.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1519482915.jpg

[gabuvi2]

Tuesday That the Gbp Usd retraced to the 61.8 fib Degree and Outside by Wednesday the Following Day.

The last 360 trading days since Jan. 1 2006 the GbpUsd has retraced to with in seven pips of the subsequent fib amounts after the days high and low are established. This retracement either happens the identical day or over the next trading day.
23.6 fib 97.8% of the trading days.
38,2 fib 87.5% of those trading days.
50.0 fib 77.5% of the time trading days.
61.8 fib 65.3% of those trading days.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1519482917.jpg

[gabuvi2]

The last 360 trading times since Jan. 1 2006 the GbpUsd has retraced to with in 7 pips of the following fib levels after the days high and low are established. This retracement either happens the identical day or over the next trading day.
23.6 fib 97.8% of the trading days.
38,2 fib 87.5% of those trading days.
50.0 fib 77.5% of the time trading times.
61.8 fib 65.3% of those trading days.

That is really for Wendesday of the week
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1519482918.jpg

[Juan]

I Just wanted to say thanks also for the hard work, this a gold mine of advice.

[8]

The last 360 trading times since Jan. 1 2006 the GbpUsd has retraced to with in 7 pips of the subsequent fib amounts after the days low and high are established. This retracement either happens the same day or within the next trading day.
23.6 fib 97.8% of the trading days.
38,2 fib 87.5% of the trading days.
50.0 fib 77.5% of the time trading times.
61.8 fib 65.3% of the trading days.

That is really for Wendesday of the week Thank you for the data GoodThings. Can you examine the information yourself? Lot of home work involved drawing all the fib lines.

[emikexx]

Yes this IS great stuff !!

Has already made me change my perspective.

Thank you.

[gabuvi2]

Daily range for GbpUsd this time last year was 138 pips it finished the year averaging 134 pips for its daily range. Currently the daily range for 2007 is 119 pips.

Past Week Daily Range


2007 5 Daily Daily Range For GBP/USD is 105Pips
2007 10 Day Daily Range For GBP/USD is 107 pips
2007 20 Day Daily Range For GBP/USD is 112 pips
2007 55 Day Daily Range For GBP/USD is 114 pips

This week daily range


2007 5 Daily Daily Range For GBP/USD is 89 Pips
2007 10 Day Daily Range For GBP/USD is 97 pips
2007 20 Day Daily Range For GBP/USD is 105 pips
2007 55 Day Daily Range For GBP/USD is 112 pips

[gabuvi2]

Thank You for the info GoodThings. Can you analyse the data yourself for this? Lot of house work entailed drawing all of the fib lines. I moved back and looked at every day starting fron Jan. 2006.

[gabuvi2]

This is Thursday of this past week ending May 18


The previous 360 trading days since Jan. 1 2006 the GbpUsd has retraced to with in seven pips of the following fib levels following the days low and high are established. This retracement occurs the same day or within the next trading day.
23.6 fib 97.8% of the trading days.
38,2 fib 87.5% of the trading days.
50.0 fib 77.5% of the time trading days.
61.8 fib 65.3% of the trading days.

https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1519482920.jpg

[gabuvi2]

Right now it is also about the 21 ema on the weekly.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526871280.jpg

[Gusanagui]

Understood, try these figures for long term. 39 sma on 4H and 154sma on daily. Daily 1s I'll usually hold for 2-3weeks, hope u will have fun. https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526871281.jpg Long positions.

[gabuvi2]

Understood, try out these amounts for long term. 39 sma on 4H and 154sma on daily. Daily 1s I'll generally hold for 2-3weeks, hope u will have fun. https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526871281.jpg Long positions. Love it.

[gabuvi2]

May acquire powerful enough confirmation off of this 30 min 5/13 cross and 4hr candle and not wait for 1hr 5/13 cross. 4hr candle closes on peak of the hour.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526871281.jpg

[gabuvi2]

The pink line is that the (WAR) weekly typical range for the gbpusd this season that is 264. The blue line is that the (RM) range of motion for all the months of the year.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15268713021078849843.jpg

[gabuvi2]

Long both gbpusd and gbpjpy. Getting some pips on the gj but fighting on the gu as of this moment. Inter on the gu on 5/13 cross the hourly and gbpjpy entered in like normal just shooting from the hip no more indiors just movement off of things of sr https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526871283.jpg. Looking at long of this gbpchf for short term. Probably after eastern.

[gabuvi2]

WAR for Your GbpUsd
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15268713031590954911.jpg

[gabuvi2]

Range of movement for the GbpUsd broken out for all this year and the last 55 days.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526871306341437664.jpg

[gabuvi2]

Blue lines are every weeks (RM) range of motion from the weeks reduced to fourteen days high the pink line is (WAR) per typical range up to now. The (WAR) to date is for example after the initial 4 weeks of the year was 349 . After 27 weeks (week commencing July 1) the GbpUsd's (WAR) to date hit 250 which is the low so much for theyear. Currently the GbpUsd's (WAR) has climbed up to 280 and will change depending upon these weeks (RM) .
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15268713101921046453.jpg

[gabuvi2]

The (WAR) for your EurJpy is 340 pips up to now. The blue line is that the (RM) range of motion based on each months high and low for all of the months of this year. The pink line is that the (WAR) weekly average range. The (WAR) varies from week to week because it's the average of all of the prior weeks up to now. For instance week 4 (WAR) is based on adding the entire number of pips per currency has range for the 4 months and dividing it from the four months. For instance say that the (RM) per week 1 is 200 week 2 is 250 week 3 175 week 4 is 225. You would add 200 250 177 225=852 pips / by 4 months equal an (WAR) for your first 4 weeks of 212. This is how each weeks(WAR) is calculated.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526871311196276610.jpg

[gabuvi2]

WAR for the EurJpy
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526871313657095016.jpg

[iguco7]

Just want to thank you GOODTHINGS
Good, valuable, hard work, Ideal, Unique thread

thanks again, keep it up

[gabuvi2]

The EurJpy. To state the obvious the range of movement for all currencies has improved in the last few months.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526871315209341122.jpg

[gabuvi2]

GbpUsd (DAR) daily average range
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526871317248409258.jpg

[gabuvi2]

GbpUsd daily (RM) the previous 40 days. The pink line is that the (DAR) of 120 pips to the year. The blue line is the daily (RM) for all the previous 40 days.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526871291.jpg

[gabuvi2]

Pink line shows the daily (RM) for the previous 41 to 80 days (see previous article for the previous 40 days) and the blue line is the 120 pip (DAR) for the year. The increased (RM) has started about 50 trading days past.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526871292.jpg

[lalo]

Hi Goodthings, I'll be watching the pairs you examine for closes at or very near daily or weekly Highs/Lows. I will leave 50% position at 23.6 Fib retracement and proceed stop to b/e. At 38.2 Fib I shall depart final 50%. SL is 2x value of retracement into 23.6. My close is NYC close. Let us see what happens. Thank you for everything. Pippo

[gabuvi2]

Up outdated retracements GbpUsd
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15268713191871087335.jpg

[gabuvi2]

Hi Goodthings, I will be seeing the pairs you study for closes at or very near daily or weekly Highs/Lows. I will exit 50% position at 23.6 Fib retracement and proceed stop to b/e. In 38.2 Fib I will exit final 50%. SL is 2x worth of retracement to 23.6. My closing is NYC close. Let's see what happens. Thank you for all. Pippo I've learned in the past couple of months that awaiting suitable PA (Price Action) for all these fibs is vital. It almost seems like its a gimme once you've got daily fibs of high probability and weekly fibs of high probability (see previous post).
Except to click the button with no verifying PA, or even trend, just basing it upon statistical probability can get you in a trade you want you would have waited for or you you wish you would haven't been in. Believe me I've done that. Https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526871294.png I generally exchange the 4hr candles/bars with a weekly fib standpoint and (DAR) (WAR) in your mind. For me personally my entry is most significant, then I plan my exit predied on (DAR) and (WAR). Exit egy is significant but what I see in the market it's hard to find all of a run. I've conceded to the fact that I will always leave pips on the dining table. But if I get in the core of the move with a high probability trade I will up my capital invested. Depending on what currencies you trade it's a lot easier for me to grab 60 pips from GbpJpy then 60 pips from the EurJpy or GbpUsd. Those are the ones that I trade mostly. The SL being 2x that the 23.6 that I would have to look at it more closely to state. Levels are normally used by me. For SL I move about 12 to 15 pips the other side and for TP I normally move 12 to 15 pips this side of s/r levels. Both are extremes but I don't prefer to use stop losses and I don't like to get stopped out. I do use stop losses but rarely with gbpjpy. Also like everybody else I don't like to miss my TP area by merely a few pips and wind up breaking even or getting stopped using a reduction. I would much rather grab some of something then nothing. When I target a fib degree on the daily I usually go approximately ten pips before it and with weekly I move in between them. On the weekly I will some times look for the 23.6 and 38.2 fibs but after that I will go in between. I Constantly though keep in mind the DAR, S/R, and even distinct emas for your 4hr, daily, and weekly. Did not anticipate writing a novel but just thought I would answere your question and perhaps a few others you didn't ask. To sum it up I like the way the boys (men) from James 16 trade and I like high statistical probability trades according to DAR, WAR, Fibs and S/R split workouts.

[gabuvi2]

Weekly range for its gbpusd this year. It has been 12 weeks since it dropped beneath the 250 RM involving the weekly high and low.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526869619648396146.jpg

[gabuvi2]

The blue print reveals 200 trading days so far this year and how many times and percentage of times the GbpUsd retraces to those degree on a daily basis. This relies on it retracing to those amounts either the next day or the same day. Weekly retracements are shown by the numbers from weeks high and low for 2006. The figures reveal Weekly retracements for the 40 weeks so far this year.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526869622470986506.jpg

[gabuvi2]

Daily (RM) for the GbpUsd. Pink line reveals daily (RM) and the blue line is (DAR) of 120 pips for 2007
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15268696251142453293.jpg

[gabuvi2]

RM for your GbpUsd past 40 days. The blue line is that the (RM)
for the last 40 days and pink line is that the 2007 (DAR) of 120 pips.



28,394/178
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526869627644701838.jpg

[lalo]

Thank you for all your help, hi Goodthings. The studies of reracements over 8 yrs. Look very convincing. Were s/r, emas, fashion, etc. taken into consideration whenever these stats were being compiled? Before entering a trade, I usually wait for consolidation patterns to form on 15 min. Chart, such as dual top/bottom, divergences, etc.. I'll simply be trading retracements as they've been studied extensively, whilst s/r fractures haven't. I'll be mindful of daily and weekly range of movement stats. I am trading lots . Pippo

[gabuvi2]

DAR averages for the GbpUsd
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526869629685208243.jpg

[gabuvi2]

RM to get GbpJpy past 40 times
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526869605.jpg

[gabuvi2]

Daily range of movement (DRM) for GbpJpy the last 41 to 80 days
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526869606.jpg

[GOKSALO]

Hi Tom,
I'm most grateful for your excellent work. Your work shows tremendous quantity of dediion and professionalism.
May God in His Infinite wisdom, bestow His blessings upon you.
Adam Raja.
PS. Many thanks to all the contributors.

[gabuvi2]

GbpJpy
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15268696311721898242.jpg

[gabuvi2]

GbpJpy WRM and WAR. The yearly for the year thus far is 566 pips. By viewing this chart do we expect the GbpJpy to move beyound or under its year WAR?
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526869632948781918.jpg

[gabuvi2]

Current Range of motion is 74 pips to the day the (DAR) daily average range is also 200 pips. Trade the break from 20 pips past current low or higher target 50 pips. Its retraced past the 61.8 daily fib of the day's current high and low. Looking for a trade on the up side but if it breaks below taking a look at a commerce on the other hand then.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526869608.jpg

[Nielz]

Lights out?

[BMUJOO]

Really difficult to comprehend about this technic or this technique... Have to read start all over again... Pheewww... https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526869609.png

[femnango]

Here is my contribution... R code included if anybody ones to replie my analysis.

Cheers,
EZcurrency
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526869641724067506.pdf

[el]

This is my contribution... R code contained if anyone ones to replie my analysis.

Cheers,
EZcurrency
Hi! Fantastic analysis. Https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526869610.png
Anywhere I hv done some data analysis. For your information that,I generated data and backtesting system with visual basic programming.

I'd love to disturb my current system and if you dont mind could you please share a few of your analysis thoughts.

I look at your analysis and compare mine. My machine is based on the probability % at every pricing, so to know which level is your very best entry/stop/target. And I hv ran some backtesting to demone the outcome.

Would you mind to take a look at my pdf? And please comment if there's a room for improvement. And you might enlighten for your innovative analysis.

The pdf is at the post link below.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/bitcoin-talk-and-cryptocurrencies/104-money-management-egy.html

Thanks! https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526869610.png

[gabuvi2]

1 Attachment(s) R1 and S1 with statistical average high and low for the day.

[semgii27]

This is my contribution... R code included if anybody ones to replie my analysis. Cheers, EZcurrency image would you describe how to extract and utilize your code into R ? I've tried but I fell ... I might have miss something . .
Thanks Beforehand if you could help

Cheers

Slowbrain

PS: im looking to test GBPUSD because the beginning of the year 2017