AUDUSD Trading Pit

[numiguela]

1 Attachment(s) This thread is open for AUDUSD related interactive commerce talks.
No particular rules; only mutual tolerance and respect among members requested.
Braggers are welcome under one condition: Please have the courtesy of posting a chart together with open/closed positions.
Let us exchange our favorite pair and have fun.
Happy pipping


https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/trading-discussion/75-helpful-traders.html

[Sanpkspomlu]

quote You do not know if its pull back or correction.What starts as pull back turned into complete fledg swing and trend reversal. Check out UC to get an idea. Look it doesn't matter if you agree or disagree I have 8positions shorting this should not matter to you personally. Great fortune. I am kiwi

[piki31]

I'm shorting this pair cos' fundamentally, data is weak for OZ.

[numiguela]

2 Attachment(s)
I'm shorting this pair cos' fundamentally, info is feeble for OZ. I'm also brief with this pair. Had a few shorts from last week and additional more this week.
First goal is 7050.
More market orders above 7220 up to 7300
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/trading-system-and-egies/99-steve-trading-journal.html
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/trading-system-and-egies/111-markets.html

[numiguela]

There's also something else to see: by what we have seen for the past few months, price has been experiencing pretty speedy retrieval from pull backs, which suggests a strong buying interest. This specific event has to be tracked to find a sense about the intentions of bull.

[wimeg2k8]

there is something else to watch: from what we have seen for the last few weeks, price has been experiencing quite speedy recovery from pull backs, which indies a strong buying interest. This particular event has to be monitored to find a feeling about the intentions of bull. Not saying it will not pop back , a bit different situation tho, , even considering 4 hour charts. Check out,,aluminum,,, sp,, , the dax,,,, even oil, compare it to the aud you wont have no problem seeing what I mean , would place the charts but they will take up a lot of space

[numiguela]

1 Attachment(s)
quoteNot saying it'll pop back , a bit different scenario tho, , even looking at 4 hour charts. Check out,,, copper,,, sp,, , the dax,,,, even oil, compare it to the aud you wont have no problem seeing what I mean , would post the charts but they will occupy a lot of room definitely concur. My guess is also commodity prices are supporting this pair whilst euro and gbp are getting crushed. We're still in completion of leg upward and for much clearer shorting opportunities it needs a few space/time. So not ruling out a return and examine at 726x. However it does not alter my long term short prejudice, at least until 7400.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/trading-discussion/93-big-bucks.html

[numiguela]

1 Attachment(s) it's been a slow drop but things should speed up shortly. 7125 may slow down it again
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/trading-system-and-egies/109-dear-diary.html

[smokk]

1 Attachment(s) Nice to find a fresh AU thread up n running.
Targeting 1.7115 using a speed bump at 1.7137.
Posted earlier on this particular @ https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/trading-discussion/81-overly-complex-coding-trading-systems.html
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/trading-discussion/84-euro-1-15-a.html

[numiguela]

Nice to find an original AU thread up n running. Targeting 1.7115 using a speed bump at 1.7137. Posted earlier on this @ https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/trading-discussion/94-mind-market-book-review.html picture Hey Basill,
apparently buyers are not giving up yet and formally we are trading in a leg up on 4H. So it's clear for a few this fall is a retracement plus a buying opportunity. I think only 4h close below 7050 will reveal if we are at a neutral zone, until then bull is slight in management.
Meanwhile, metals are in a range for a short period of time, lets see how this will influence the pair.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1519483636.jpg

[numiguela]

1 Attachment(s) bullish 4H pin pub. I can say today we have short-term support at 7150. The evaluation of 7200 from 7150 is highly likely
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/trading-system-and-egies/106-dumping-audjpy-yen-pairs-worth.html

[Amwinzam]

bullish 4H pin bar. I can say today we've got short term support at 7150. The test of 7200 from 7150 is highly probable picture Hi Tash,

if 4hr candle close below 7150 the area, price looks just like down correction ...

[numiguela]

1 Attachment(s) released a pair of shorts and hedging the remaining with audhkd. This will decrease the profitability somewhat but at the same time will remove the chance of the sudden profit wipe out. If pinbars lied will launch it.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/trading-system-and-egies/73-ultimate-solution-martingale-trend-2-1-a.html

[numiguela]

quote Hi Tash, if 4hr candle close below 7150 the place, price looks like down correction ... yes, you are right. I am in EST zone and a new 4h only started, if it closes below 7160, then downside bias remains valid. 15M and 30M still look very bearish

[Amwinzam]

1 Attachment(s) hi tash,

I see price continue make lower price AUDUSD M5

https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/trading-system-and-egies/109-dear-diary.html

[Amwinzam]

quote yes, you're right. I am in EST zone and a new 4h just started, if it closes below 7160, then drawback bias is still legitimate. 15M and 30M nevertheless look quite bearish

[numiguela]

1 Attachment(s)
hi tash, I see price continue make lower price AUDUSD M5 image was anticipating some retracement at 715x-60, this can be nearly 50% of recent leg up from 7070 to 7260 and newest 4h and 1h bars did not look too convincing. But am for a fresh sweep all of the way up to 7070 again. Just being little cautious considering how this pair has behaved lately
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/trading-discussion/75-helpful-traders.html

[Amwinzam]

1 Attachment(s)
quote was expecting some retracement in 715x-60, this is almost 50 percent of recent leg upward by 7070 to 7260 plus latest 4h and 1h bars did not seem too convincing. But am for a clean sweep all of the way up to 7070 again. Just being little careful considering how this pair has acted recently picture Hi Tash,

Yes, alteration agree to reverse the po long set up ...
awaiting the good set up extended ...

https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/trading-system-and-egies/106-dumping-audjpy-yen-pairs-worth.html

[numiguela]

1 Attachment(s)
quote Hi Tash, Yes, change agree to reverse the po long setup ... awaiting the great setup long ... picture maybe not a terrible idea. I am holding the shorts but might also add to AHKD longs. Meanwhile audchf brief is close to 100 pips profit and closing that you
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/trading-discussion/82-esignal-cqg-vttrader.html

[numiguela]

1 Attachment(s) bear is trying to invalidate that 4h installment. 20 minutes to go. Lets see how this can end. Can it close below 7160?
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/trading-system-and-egies/105-trading-dilemma.html

[Fmesky66]

If not amounts I will be quite interested to find out what happens
0.7580
0.7450

GLhttps://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526953914.jpg

[javi23]

Hello everybody is that a bear trap? GLhttps://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526953914.jpg
FOMC put its tone to 2 rate rise this year.

Macquarie is telling us 80cents within a quarter and then an AUD downturn.
Http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/currencies/next-stop-us80-dollar-rally-puts-rba-in-dark-corner-20160317-gnlopx.html

What else does Fed have in this round of currency battle? Is RBA going say something for Australia's economic shift to tourism industry?

Nevertheless AUD closed yesterday over past high....

Which are the real drivers to exchange rates nowadays?

Http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR
btw, does anybody know a greater public connection for US Dollar Index SPOT live chart?

Many thanks and Decent luck all : )

[lxanius]

Sold both AU and NU.

[GuixxeBm96]

Hello Everyone is that a bear trap? GLhttps://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526953914.jpg my view
it could be trap for the buy on aud better out and wait to where it heads , sell trap well I figure what goes up has to come down for the retrace

[bammachina]

quote my opinion it might be snare for your buy on aud better outside and wait patiently for where it heads , sell snare well I figure what goes up has to come down for your retrace If you use a stop loss its no snare https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526953914.jpg

[numiguela]

quote Hi Tashkent I am bearish on AU fundamentally Australia and Aussie dollar are in risk with commodity price drop.China Japan slowing down.Don't see far up from here unless something profound alterations. Unemployment numbers printed today aren't accurate reflection of market and it's much greater. Could be one of these nice drops following all retails label their longs getting big bull trap. Regards Hi ,
I am also thinking the exact same. China and Japan are the 2 major trading partners (combined around 50 percent of total australian exports). It is just matter of time once the troubles these 2 countries are having will influence their major partners or countries that are economically interconnected. One of those things to watch today is commodity prices, particularly metals.
From tech point of view the up trend appears strong and healthy today. Bull was almost brought to its knees but fomc spared the day and I believe there is nothing could block the bull until a significant bearish event. We're in autopilot mode currently.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526953926835019286.jpg

[jooxn57]

quote Hello , I am also thinking the same. China and Japan are the two major trading partners (united around 50% of total australian exports). It is just matter of time once the troubles these two nations are having will affect their major partners or nations that are economically interconnected. One of those things to watch now is commodity prices, particularly metals. From tech point of view the up trend looks strong and healthy now. Bull was brought to its knees but fomc spared the day and now I believe there's nothing could stop the bull... GM T
I propose utilizing my pivot.Great tool showing key zones 61 78 100 R/S from weekly pivot
Notice rejection by 78R
Most traders are unaware of 78.6Fib which is square root of 618. Scott Carney a harmonic master detected this.
regards
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/152695392871621036.jpg
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526953930807086961.mq4

[numiguela]

potential area to initiate brief trade in AU is about MR3 on H4 chart. This transaction would have to be more confirmed/timed using brent/copper price reversal, currently commods are still trading greater, consequently AU still got steam to drive farther, nevertheless rally is overextended big-time and can fall any time. image generally agree but not certain if we are trading around the large.
Brief on many aud pairs.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15269539321781735477.jpg
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15269539351567039902.jpg
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526953936669766965.jpg

[numiguela]

quote GM T I suggest using my pivot.Great tool showing crucial zones 61 78 100 R/S from weekly Notice rejection by 78R Most traders are unaware of 78.6Fib that's square root of 618. This was detected by Scott Carney a master. Regards image file Thanks , pivots look fairly accurate. Sadly I use the most base platform and can not apply the connected right now, but I am certain others will produce a use of this. I will save it https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526953919.jpg

[xzmigem]

I have been doing a bit of research into the upswing in the iron ore price, which has grown appx. 29% this year, also is a major contributor to Australia's economy, and other members here have noticed that the AUD/USD price has a close correlation to it. I have discovered quite a few articles printed in the last few weeks, and will attach links here to three. The overall consensus is that the rise is expected to be very short term, also is due to the simple fact that there is currently a dip in China's housing market, which is predicted to last during the first half of this year, and that is fantastic for the cement and steel businesses there. Following is a quote from 1 article While the current rally in the iron ore prices and has been partially brought on by speculative activity in the futures market, the pickup in China's housing market and Beijing's more supportive economic policy can also be seen as a variable.

Read more: http://www.afr.com/real-estate/residential/rebound-in-chinas-property-market-continues-improving-outlook-for-iron-ore-20160318-gnlu1i#ixzz43IPbTat5
Follow us : http://ec.tynt.com/b/rw?id=cCUjAS_ECr5iWLacwqm_6lu=FinancialReview | http://ec.tynt.com/b/rf?id=cCUjAS_ECr5iWLacwqm_6lu=financialreview

Here's a quote from another The problem is the fundamentals for the iron ore market remain horrible. Through time, short term Chinese stimulation attempts have had a big impact on the iron ore price. But after the stimulation wears off, the price fades.

Another variable regarded as contributing to the growth in the AUD is that the simple fact that Australia's interest rate construction (currently 2%) looks good compared to the adverse rates in Japan and Europe, so there is currently an inflow of cash. And no doubt Glen Stevens has noticed that fact and will factor it into deliberations about future interest rate moves.

Also, the other metals have risen sharply this year, however as with iron ore, there is still too much supply, and a lot of the rise appears to be speculative. Shares in certain large mining companies such as Anglo, Glencore and Freeport (maybe not RIO or BHP) have experienced rises of as much as 60-80% up to now THIS YEAR. These climbs in metal prices and mining companie's share prices look good on the outside to Australia, so much of it's income comes from the gas and mining sectors.

But the majority of the metals are still in oversupply, such as iron ore. And gas prices are a manifestation of the oil business, which is in oversupply, but due to current optimism of future supply reductions, they're rising. So that the growth in prices is likely to be short term, as is the growth in the share prices of their mining companies and oil companies.

In summary, until Australia drops interest rates (and also the increasing dollar is currently exerting pressure for the Fed to do exactly that) and until commodity prices once more reflect true supply and demand requirements, we have a rising Aussie dollar. However, the foundation of that rise is sand. As so many members here have noticed, the rise does not reflect fundamentals. But if you link to those links I have provided here, then you'll find a better picture of why we have a short-medium term rise, which in my opinion is putting us up for a much bigger fall.

But short term the AUD/USD tendency is up, so I'll buy the dips, but will pile on the shorts once the lows are removed.

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/iron-ore-and-the-dollar-joined-at-the-hip/2016/03/07/

http://www.mining.com/march-mining-madness-as-copper-iron-ore-prices-surge/

[xzmigem]

One of above links was intended to be this

http://www.afr.com/real-estate/residential/rebound-in-chinas-property-market-continues-improving-outlook-for-iron-ore-20160318-gnlu1i

[bammachina]

I've been doing a bit of research into the upswing in the iron ore price, which has grown appx. 29% this year, also is a major contributor to Australia's economy, and as with other members have noticed the AUD/USD price has a close attention to it. I've discovered quite a few articles printed in the past couple of weeks, and will attach hyperlinks here to three. The general consensus is that the rise is expected to be very short duration, and is because of the simple fact that there's currently a dip in China's housing market, which is predicted to last through the first half... Great post.

This is what I adore about fx trading, being aware, and study of underlying economic conditions which influence the market.

I watched a meeting a week or so back on http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-08/iron-ore-s-record-surge-seen-as-a-blip-rather-than-revival about the brief term Chinese stimulation and the temporary requirement for steel, for Government jobs.

My forecast to the aussie is the monthly to close at .73000. We've got 9 trading days lets see how it goes.

[jooxn57]

quote Great post. This is what I love about fx trading, being aware, and research of underlying economic conditions which influence the market. I watched an interview a week or so ago on http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-08/iron-ore-s-record-surge-seen-as-a-blip-rather-than-revival concerning the short term Chinese stimulus and the temporary demand on metal, for Government jobs. My forecast to the aussie is the monthly to shut at .73000. We have 9 trading days lets see how it goes. Heavy short on Aussie both AU and AN
Will hold for 38S 1st. Major structure there (yellow box)
Its not possible to go lower by the close of the month.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526953938186453857.jpg

[Oxysalva]

quote Heavy short on Aussie equally AU and AN May hold for 38S 1st. Major structure there (yellow box) Its unlikely to go lower by the close of the month. image aussie nz will barely move down if nzd tumbles.

[jooxn57]

quote aussie nz will hardly move down if nzd tumbles. It did but today its recovering.Next based on Aussie rate cut which is coming.Last entity RBA needs is getting strongest currency in the region on expense of fragile economy.
They want Aussie at .65 so 76 is overkill.
Please look at the chart since rate spike it dropped 153pips!

[GuixxeBm96]

quote Great post. This is what I love about fx trading, knowing, and study of underlying economic conditions that influence the market. I watched an interview a week or so ago on http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-08/iron-ore-s-record-surge-seen-as-a-blip-rather-than-revival concerning the brief term Chinese stimulation and the temporary demand on steel, for Government projects. My prediction for the aussie is the monthly to shut .73000. We have 9 trading days lets see how it goes. Hi Paul , I have been on here a lot over the years and I have seen people say don't trade news don't trade this and the other , I get a lot of information I put into trades such as aud/usd aud/gbp and've been successful over the years just doing this like you say becoming aware in advance is a key

[Oxysalva]

quote It did but today its recovering.Next in line is Aussie rate cut which is coming.Last thing RBA wants is having most powerful currency in the area on expense of fragile economy. They need Aussie in .65 therefore 76 is overkill. Please look at the chart since rate spike it dropped 153pips! It's a pullback not a correction. Fibonnaci drawn on the charts. See where it has picked support. 61.8% retracement. The upmove is on and it depends on the kiwi than the aussie. Kiwi is a tumbling currency and its prospects are a lot worse than aussie. It greatly depends upon china and china stock markets has more or less peaked out.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15269539401381240068.jpg

[jooxn57]

quote it is a pullback a correction. Fibonnaci drawn on the weekly charts. See where it has chosen support. 61.8% retracement. The upmove is still on and it depends more so about the kiwi than the aussie. Kiwi is a tumbling currency and its prospects are a lot worse than aussie. It greatly depends on china and china stock markets has significantly more or less peaked out. picture Well you don't know whether its pull back or correction.What begins as pull back might turn into full fledged swing and trend reversal.
Check out UC to get an idea.
Look it does not matter if you agree or disagree I have 8positions shorting this so shouldn't matter to you personally.
Your reasoning is so gloomy....well China things even more to Australia although not likely to dwell here.I remember I had you discount and looks as though I might wind up doing it.

[bammachina]

quote it's a pullback not a correction. Fibonnaci drawn on the weekly charts. See where it has chosen support. 61.8% retracement. The upmove remains on and it depends more so about the kiwi compared to the aussie. Kiwi is a tumbling currency and its prospects are a lot worse compared to aussie. It greatly depends upon china and china stock markets has more or less peaked out. picture I concur with you. I believe technically its a monthly pullback.

I posted this on another thread.

I like to exchange keeping fundamentals in your mind but as of late as everyone is able to see the AUD is trending contrary to fundamentals.

On the charts what you're seeing is a pullback/correction about the monthly.

Since the start of the down trend (march 2013) after each huge drop the aud retracted around 600 to 800 pips, always to the previous support level using a monthly candle of around 500 pips then back down again. The current retractment is 750 pips.

The 1st fall (from the peaks) 1700 pips, 2nd 1100 pips, 3rd 1900 pips and the last 1200 pips. If the pattern continues and based in which the current price holds we could maintain another fall of around 1800pips that will bring us to around the .60 degree.

When the economy is flourishing we get climbing share prices, increasing commodity prices, increasing overseas investment and reserves, simpler and larger flow of money , increasing interest rates, increasing dollar, until we achieve a summit.

#8203;Then we get a contraction and a recession, the reverse happens.

We are in the current stage just before a recession, we have to have the falling real estate values and when this happen we are there.

When the recession has bottomed out this will bring rise to a restoration and growth, the cycle repeats itself.

I dont believe we are yet to find the base of the cycle.

#8203;This morning the aud jumped up over 100pip. This had nothing to do with aud strength but fundamentals of the US Federal Reserve.

#8203;C-Trader opinion remains 75% short

[lxanius]

there is no point fighting with a powerful uptrend in AUDUSD particularly since we are still in wave 5 of the uptrend since mid-feb.
The tide 5 should complete near 7700-7750 area, where the trend should reverse and a/b/c correction will eliminate. Until then it's going to become yous at a horrible drawdown if you go short. https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526953298.jpg
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526953306546234089.jpg

[Plumixxa89]

Hey, where is everyone? The pair is coming to life. I'd like to see your thoughts with this pair. C'mon guys, don't hide. Show up, please. https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526953299.jpg

[anpknipove]

Hello all! In your trading of AU or other pairs did you learn anything last week for better trading now? If yes, and you want to share your experience and help fellownigeriaforextradingmembers, click a lesson#8203;. Green pips to you.

KP

["golomes"]

there is no point fighting with a strong uptrend in AUDUSD particularly since we're still in wave 5 of the uptrend because mid-feb. The wave 5 should complete near 7700-7750 region, where the trend should reverse and a/b/c correction will take off. Until then it's going to become yous at a nasty drawdown if you go short. Https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526953299.jpg picture you nailed it
regrettably I chicken out on this and also the geppy the afternoon before and overlooked equally
another lesson learnt

[numiguela]

uptrend in drama. Have one long and a buy order around .7820 in the event we've got terrible news in 1.5 hour.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1526953310861883951.jpg

[numiguela]

uptrend in play - still holding true.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15269533121207485313.jpg

[numiguela]

3 Attachment(s) high TF charts
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/trading-system-and-egies/98-reminiscences-fx-operator.html
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/trading-system-and-egies/107-gerryvs-laguerre-journal.html
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/trading-discussion/91-outcome-happened.html