2018 Trading Account Experiment

[amanlza]

Hi,
the aim of this thread is to launch a 2018 trading account experiment using a fully disclosed trading system with a full audit trail and accessible to anyone interested.

I have of late been posting tonigeriaforextradingideas and opinions from experience without supplying any hard evidence of trading ability to back the words up. I've been trading my own account fulltime to get a living for the past almost nine years now, with a short-term, intraday methodology on 5 min charts. I haven't posted this to Trade Explorer as my dealing platform doesn't support it, and it's impractical for me to place links on the forum beforehand given the nature of my trading. I've also for a while had the belief that my intraday principles could reasonably successfully translate to more timeframes. This experiment attempts to solve these questions.

I shall run an actual trading account on this particular thread with daily charts and posting planned entries and exits beforehand, to be actioned via standing market orders. This will create a verifiable audit trail and that I will provide a concise summary of the current account position (as much as the last closed transaction ) in the conclusion of every article. To keep me stimulated I shall commit a #10,000 account to the venture, however standing size will likely be such that maximum risk per trade (yes, all transactions will incorporate an inviolate hard stop loss order in the market) is just 1 percent of the account. I am not seeking to create any meaningful money on this experiment, I shall be continuing my mainstream intraday activities in parallel. No additions or withdrawals will be made and also the position size will remain in a 1 percent risk of the account balance at the time of the transaction. Hopefully, this will increase with time!

As with my intraday trading, I will be trading just 3 markets: EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and USD/JPY but with just daily charts here. I'm UK based and that I plan normally to post just in the evenings UK time, after I've finished my daytrading activities. I shall attempt to describe clearly the rationale for every trade in addition to post-trade analysis in order to turn into a helpful trading journal. The thread does not as a necessity require involvement from anyone else but I will be pleased to take any comment and queries from anyone who may be interested.

PLEASE NOTE: This is an experiment and I cannot give you any confidence as to the possible outcome. I will trade carefully and diligently in line with my established egies but I have not before traded forex on anything outside intraday on a 5 minute chart. It will be a good learning experience, ideally a successful proof of principle and also a fun ride however I really cannot promise you anything in any way. It is almost sure I shall return to a shaky start as I know the principles of the daily chart timeframe but there's not any escaping this learning curve.

My next article will begin with a brief description of my planned trading egy.
I shall be seeking to begin live on two January 2018.


Account summary: Balance #10,000 ( 0.0%) No. Trades YTD 0

[lapkbien]

Subscribed, btw create TE too?? . Good fortune in 2018!

[Mogespk40]

Thank you Marc for beginning such intriguing experiment. Your trading egy is real deal among total of crap threads . You mentioned in several articles that your Risk/Reward is almost 1:1 with winning ratio 55%. Do you intend to stick with 1:1 R/R Ratio or with softer exits it can float?

Anyhow I want you good start and profitable end.

Subscribedhttps://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1527238865.jpg

[amanlza]

Hi Ihor,

Welcome to this thread though I guess you might be ploughing a lonely furrow!

I will guarantee you I do really trade for a living. I can not claim anything that I do is the real deal but at least what I've set out within post#2 is pretty much a complete and solid trading system that is grounded on successful market-tested principles. I understand that it doesn't appeal to many because it doesn't give a rigid black box mechanical EA that you can simply plug in then count the cash rolling in, and it needs discipline, unwavering risk control and losers to be siphoned cut but, sadly, that is the essence of trading. I'd enjoy it simpler, also.

As for the performance figures, funnily enough my outcomes for 2017 are a 56% success rate at nearly exactly 1:1 reward:risk, therefore I've consistency if little else! This is what I reach in my intraday trading and that I honestly don't know whether it's going to be exactly the same here. The more timeframe will allow winners to operate on further but may also expose me to volatile market moves from scheduled major economic announcements, overnight spikes and the like, something I never face intraday as I am always flat at these times. Thus, the stops here would need to be comparatively wider than I trade intraday. I won't be accepting trades unless I feel there's at least 1:1 realistically available but the exit process will be a little softer, at least at the outset.

Finally, don't anticipate a great beginning, I am going to be finding my toes and relaxation level for some time in order deference into a strap line, recall: Non omne quod nitet aurum est!

Have a good Xmas, starting live 2 January

[amanlza]

Hi Cryptofunk,

A warm welcome to you also; that is now 2 greater than I anticipated!

To answer your question, as stated in article #1 my trading platform doesn't support TE. I did look at transferring to mt4 and join through that but, to be honest, it was too confusing for me (I come from the pre-internet age, if anyone can remember that!) And I really don't need to mess around with multiple platforms.

ThusI shall simply post here as I go along but all entries and exits will be submitted in progress to be actioned with standing market orders so everything will be verifiable.

Happy Xmas to you, starting live 2 January

[Oxmichic]

Marc, check if https://www.fxblue.com/live/ can be used for your experimentation, eventually?

I think more people like you , will ensure it is really damn great place!

The only problem of being opened and fair at places like FF, is those inverse back engineering dildo loving little bastards...

[amanlza]

Hi MoneyZilla,

Thanks for the suggestion, I've not heard of FXBlue but That I shall Have a look.

It's in fact very fitting you checked here as it's your trading competition challenge thread (very enjoyable!) , in addition to the spare time that I have around Xmas after quitting serious trading to the year, that pushed me over the edge to actually begin this experiment also, hopefully, demone to a modest degree that it is not fully 100% windbag talk, there's some genuinely profitable trading lurking in a dark corner somewhere.

I have to also thank you for your information:
The only problem of being opened and fair at places like FF, is these reverse rear engineering dildo adoring little bastards. .

Quite good and, regrettably, very correct! FortunatelyI was an institutional equity fund supervisor for several years before turning self-employed forex trader and so I am very used to just about everybody beating the crap out of me, fairly and otherwise, for my operation amounts. You can not please all of the people all of the time!

Happy Christmas and best wishes with your venture.

[amanlza]

Hi,
This will be my final introductory article before trading starts in January.

I want to stress at the outset the belief that trading is fundamentally an exercise in probability. A trading advantage just means you have something which tilts the probabilities in your favour. If you have an audio edge, bet small and always and do not do anything stupid, i.e. let a reduction run away from you, then you'll triumph in the long term.

You can't be concerned unduly about the outcome of one trade; it is practically arbitrary despite all our high excellent analysis. You have to keep ploughing on, trade after trade using a real'rinse repeat' mentality and let the probability take care of itself. You can also now appreciate why you have to have confidence that your method does have a favorable edge. Here, the advantage is basically that we go with the flow, easier to swim with the current than it. And that's pretty much all there is to it; just about all of the rest is risk control.

However, the probabilistic nature of trading means you'll have to endure losing streaks. My personal record thus far is 11 successive winners and (separately) 15 winners from 16 trades. Being that bad takes actual talent. You can see why I risk 1% of this account per trade. If I haven't scared you off by now you're possibly either somewhat slow or simply not listening. In any event, it is your fault if you return in January so please no complaining to me when I post loser #10 on a streak. By then I'll probably be rooting for a new personal best in any circumstance.

With this happy thought, I want you all a joyous and peaceful Christmas!


Account Overview: Balance #10,000 ( 0.0%) No. Trades YTD 0

[amanlza]

Hi,
Happy New Year !

I trust you've all had an excellent holiday break. Aside from my liver being needing urgent medical care I am good to begin trading within this 2018 Trading Account Experiment. The new trading account has been set up and can be live.

Article #1 in this thread gives you the backdrop for this folly, article #2 holds a overview of the trading egy to be employed here, and article #9 carries a small but significant insight into the real nature of trading.

As all my trading for the last eight years has been intraday about 5 minute charts and this experiment is on daily charts, necessarily I will be feeling my egy somewhat with all the ancient transactions here. So perhaps you shouldn't reach to your dealing button straight away though I will be taking all transactions live on this account. Allow my losses function as free learning, it is possible to always in due course subscribe in gratitude for my inevitable forthcoming Trading Fund Replenishment crowd funding exercise.

Pleasantries completed, on to business. The following three articles will set out my first analysis and current trading chances in turn for all the three markets being followed.

Account Overview: Balance #10,000 ( 0.0%) No. Trades YTD 0

[amanlza]

Hi,
We begin with the price action analysis for the daily chart of AUD/USD:

https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15272388751216976759.jpg

I visit a downtrend that has been halted by a consolidation, followed with a false break to the downside which reversed, trapped some shorts, and led into the current uptrend.
Resistance around 7900 is likely to be tested if the uptrend is great. We are potential buyers with the flow if a different consolidation forms, is tested, and any reversal is seen to fail, with the first target of 7900 and a stop below the low of this consolidation.

NB The pattern of a consolidation - false fracture - sharp reversal, in my experience is a strong one: it is pretty obvious, it disturbs some traders the incorrect manner, provides a well defined logical stop and frequently contributes to a strong momentum breakout throughout the opposing side of the consolidation. You will find us trading that this pattern a lot as this thread progresses.

Instead , our current uptrend could itself reverse as a sucker rally into the bigger prior downtrend. We would then expect a test of this 7500 low and we'd look to combine the ride down at a suitable point.

Either way, please note we are awaiting the market to give us a lead and an adequate entry point, we are not seeking to force our forecast available on the market. It, not , is the 400 lbs gorilla here and it will do anything it wants.

So, a waiting game for today. Next article is EUR/USD analysis

Account overview: Balance #10,000 ( 0.0%) No. Trades YTD 0

[Gammimal]

Hii marc, goodluck for next days.
I trust you can take a dre https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1527238866.jpg

[amanlza]

Hi,
We now turn to the price action analysis for your daily chart of EUR/USD:

https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1527238877689226063.jpg

Here I visit a downtrend which was halted with a double bottom which resulted in a new uptrend, punctuated by a retracement that held at support around 11700. Market has broken up in a new upleg and operating towards resistance at old highs around 12100.

It's perhaps a bit late to try and jump on board the current upleg now, a safer play would be to wait and see when we get a false fracture of 12100 that ignites some longs, and we would look to short together with the flow on the way back down.

So, again, wait and watch for now.

Next post looks at USD/JPY


Account Overview: Balance #10,000 ( 0.0%) No. Trades YTD 0

[amanlza]

Hello,
Our third and final analysis is that the price action analysis for your daily chart of USD/JPY:

https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15272388791820033055.jpg

This market looks as though it's been meandering aimlessly for a few while inside a wide range between approximately 11100 and 11500. There's some potential intra-range service at 11200 for the current movement down. A fake break and sharp change back up in the degree might lure me into a long using the new momentum.

Instead, a conclusive drop below this service would get me anticipating a test of this 11080 range low and we then will be looking for a brief as the sellers would then be in control, though there isn#8217;t a lot of room to get a window of opportunity for us.

Again, wait and see what happens.

You might have already noticed in such first three charts that the analysis contributes to a lot of waiting and viewing. We analyze the chart, envisage possible/likely situations from here, then look to find out if anything could supply the kind of transaction we're looking for.

We do not want to take from the cool, nor do we would like to enter transactions based on nothing but our predictions. We wait to find out if the market will offer us a fantastic trade. If it does, we input without hesitation and gracefully accept the consequences; if not, we sit on the sidelines and wait a few more.

We just want good deals, i.e. just those that are fully in accore with our method. Superior trades won#8217;t win anywhere close to every time but I do have to feel that they are great to be obtained. My fundamental mental check before I have a situation is: Am I pleased to shed on this trade?

Anyway, back tomorrow after my intraday trading to get an upgrade.


Account Overview: Balance #10,000 ( 0.0%) No. Trades YTD 0

[OhhGuixxe]

Hello , We turn into the price action analysis for the daily chart of EUR/USD: image Here I visit a downtrend which was halted by a dual bottom which resulted in a new uptrend, punctuated by a retracement that held at support around 11700. Market has now broken up in a new upleg and running towards resistance at old highs around 12100. It is possibly a little late to attempt to jump on board the current upleg now, a better play is to wait and see if we get a false break of 12100 that ignites a few longs, and we would look to brief with the flow around the way back... If it can help
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15272388811562786710.jpg
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1527238869.jpg

[amanlza]

Hii marc, goodluck for next days. I hope you can have a fantasies https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1527238870.png Hello ichwan29,
A warm welcome to this particular thread. I am rather hoping that some noise trading along with also the law of large amounts over time will create needing chance redundant, but it never hurts to have some on your own side.

I look upon trading something like playing backgammon. It's a match of both luck and skill but should you play steadily and correctly for long enough, the chance evens out along with the skill makes the difference. Whether this thread ends up displaying any web positive skill is, of course, this question!

[amanlza]

quote If it might assist Hi parisboy,
A warm welcome to you personally.

Thank your for your chart, I can only surmise you like trading with envelopes. As explained briefly in post#2 above, I am not much of a believer in some of the standard indiors. They may well have value to many but, sadly, not for me. I am a simple soul and easily confused, so that I much prefer just using the core price action on the chart that has served me well enough over several decades, at least about the intraday scale.

That said, I have understood many profitable traders whose screens seem like a jumbled mess of multi-coloured spaghetti to me however they made money with it. To each their own, I guess!

[OhhGuixxe]

quote Hello, A warm welcome to you personally. Thank you for your chart, I can only surmise you enjoy trading with envelopes. As explained briefly in article #2 above, I am not much of a believer in some of the standard indiors. They may well have value to many but, regrettably, not for me personally. I am a simple soul and easily confused, so that I much prefer just using the core price action on the chart that has served me well over many decades, at least about the intraday scale. That said, I have known many profitable traders whose displays look like a jumbled... HI Marcmarc it's simply because this way you can

- classify rationally the different trends you see on the chart
- define a Fantastic approximation of the greatest potential Price Action Up or Down
- subsequently evaluate the quality of your entry along with your Risk Reward

[amanlza]

Hi,
Back for the daily review. For those situations of those 3 markets put out in articles #11, #13 and #14 upgrades are:

AUD/USD: Waiting to see whether a consolidation forms around 7800. If it will and is tested successfully, i.e. market resists any real retracement and starts up again we will look to go long likely in the 7810-20 area.

EUR/USD: Has backed away from highs at 12100. Looking for a test break of 12100 or evidence that the current back-off accelerates down to become a legitimate trend change which we can then look to combine.

JPY/USD: Currently analyzing possible intra-range support at 11200. What goes on here will determine if we want to look for a long or short, could be right now.

I confess I'm already(!) Finding this daily chart timescale somewhat slow in comparison with the intraday trading I'm used to but patience is a virtue and we are going to find a trade on earlier or later.

Back for a further update tomorrow

Account summary: Balance #10,000 ( 0.0%) No. Trades YTD 0

[albempkgimenwzcammasco]

Hey Marc! I have read a couple of your articles across the forum and love your input and ideas. I will be keeping an eye on your journey .

Just a suggestion, I'm certain you've already considered this but incorporating more pairs will increase the potential trade setups. I trade off dailies and observe 25 pairs so. Of course many are closely connected or inversely correlated however, it permits you to diversify across them using a similar installation or go with the best looking choice.

I believe you stated on another article you only have a 56% at a 1:1 RR, I'm curious how that's working for your bottom line. Trading a 5 second chart would probably just give you a couple setups a day, even on a busy month it appears you'd need to be investing in a seven figure account to cover the bills.

I believe you said you handled a finance as well, would like to learn more about your adventures there as well if you care to share.

[amanlza]

Hi ,
Here is the Tuesday update for the 3 markets (last set out with chart in post# in brackets):

AUD/USD (post #72): Current 7878. We are flirting with danger on our Aussie 7820 short trade since the market tested 7900 today, our stop stays deliberately just another side of the big figure at 7920. We will give it a chance to wilt at this barrier and will accept being taken out at the stop if it chooses to power on.

EUR/USD (post #72): Current 12404. After becoming within 20pts of our 12250 cease, our Euro long has made an effort to turn about and go back up its trading range as we hoped, now sitting 12404 and at profit. We will place an overnight limit market on at 12450 to determine if we can grab a nice 1:1 Rtrade on a thrust up overnight, so:
TRADE #11: CLOSING LIMIT ORDER TO SELL #1/pt EUR/USD at 12450, cease 12250, current open P/L #54

USD/JPY (post #73): Current 10660. Yen has had something of a roller coaster ride today, at one point we touched 1070 and also our long trade was 90 in profit before it dropped back in the afternoon. We stand in profit so we will sit tight for tonight and see whether it may have another run to break through 10700 for us.

Daytrading Update: Just couldn't get in sync with the market now and ended up giving up in fruion with a scratch all around. I don't like to attempt and force trades on days like this because it's more than likely I will do something silly and regret it - and then compound the mistake at fruion/revenge etc.. I have leaned just to sit , see the market as if it's a practice day and only take a transaction if it scre at me that I certainly must. No such chance came along so we just sat it out now but I am absolutely happy with days being scratches and wins, it's the big losing days that I worry about about! We hope for better fortune tomorrow.

OK, order put, back to get an update tomorrow. In the meantime that the next post is a further RANT to vent my irritation, appropriately on the topic of how to improve as a trader. The irony for now is perfect...

Account outline (closed transactions ): Balance #10,003 (0.0%) No. Trades YTD 10

[amanlza]

RANT #6 - Separating The Predators from Your Prey

regardless of the gloomy predictions at the conclusion of the last RANT (post #68) we're still here and today worrying that we will need to become a better trader or we're liable to be the prey rather than the predator. How can we go about achieving this lofty ideal?

It all rather depends on what you imagine being a better trader really signifies. A pat response is that great traders earn money, bad ones do not, and therein lies the inevitable wealth move that any zero sum game brings, and one which we would love to be on the ideal side of. How exactly you make the money is, of course, the smart bit.

I profoundly regret that I am nowhere near smart enough to answer that definitively for you. But a couple decades of market experiences permit me to provide some prospective pointers to steer you toward the correct path. I've previously ad nauseum the main one: great risk control. If you're able to control risk and reduce winners you have a chance in this game. Otherwise, frankly, do not bother.

Beyond that, my other rewarding bit of information is seek to trade with the tendency, the flow, the momentum. By all means, wait for counter trend moves to become involved at more favourable prices if you want but do transaction with the prevailing wave. They could well all be idiots out there but their combined buying/selling electricity is a lot more than yours. Try not to overlook that.

That, regrettably, is all about it. Fantastic risk control and commerce with this trend. They're the 2 items I've found to have the most enduring value. Make of it what you will and I wish you every success in your trading.

The next RANT will tackle what would be another thing in my list if I were forced to think of a third bit of information for a fantastic trader, that being sound personal plogy and plogical balance.

[Mogespk40]

Hi Marc,
Thanks for your great advice on your RANT's.

I want to ask you regarding your intraday trading management. Have you got any limits on numbers of trades every day? How many losses do you take daily and how you decide when to stop?

Let us take the upcoming hypothetical day: you start and require a complete loss, next commerce is loss also. Do you usually stop or keep fighting? Commerce turns to loss also. Now you've got 3 losses for the day, or -3R. Do you cease or continue to exchange?

Perhaps you have some rules, regarding amount of trades, maximum. Number of loss trades etc.?

Due

[amanlza]

Hello Marc, Thanks for your great words of wisdom in your RANT's. I would like to ask you about your intraday trading management. Have you got any limits on amounts of trades every day? How many losses do you accept daily and how you determine when to cease? Let us take the upcoming hypothetical day: you start and require a complete loss, following trade is loss also. Can you typically prevent or keep fighting? Third trade turns to loss also. Now you have 3 losses to the day, or -3R. Can you cease or continue to trade? Perhaps you have any rules, regarding amount of transactions, maximum. Number... Hello Ihor,
Many thanks for you kind words, much appreciated, though wisdom is over ample, they're only some distilled thoughts from several years of market experience.

As for my daytrading trade management, you ask some very perceptive questions which get to the center of the topic. My ambition is to get all days being either winners or scrapes so that I never move backwards. Obviously in fact I do have a fair sprinkling of shedding days but I try to keep them to no longer than one net risk amount (basically 1% of my account) down.

I have one trade open in a time and the dream are the very first trade daily is a complete winner and that I pack up to the day. This occurs c.50% of the time. The remainder I start with a loser so I carry on and wait for another setup to trade. If that's a winner I generally stop for the afternoon as a scratch or moderate net profit if I can squeeze it from the winner; this really is about 25 percent of this time. The past 25% are then my multiple opening winners days and not quite so much pleasure. At down two I will carry on to attempt to contact scratch but will settle for one down internet. At 3 down trades I will look for one down to quit, may even take web 2 down but that's thankfully quite rare these days. I handle each transaction as an independent event and I have no set maximum number of trades I will take, but I am aware of this running tally for the day. I NEVER raise the position size in later trades in an endeavor to get back faster, which violates basic risk control requirements to keep trade risk equal and little. I do find, however, I am more willing to allow run a later winner than a previous one - an unsurprising result of pure loss aversion, I think.

I will stop immediately as a compulsory block if I get down to 4 to the day as evidently something is very wrong with me at that point and I need to pause, reflect and regroup before investing again. I will physically shut down the computer for the afternoon and go for a long walk because the desire to revenge trade and get back quickly can be nearly overwhelming and I do not want to succumb to it. I will generally not trade for the following day either, just paper trade to receive my rhythm back and I will restart trading free of longer than half size until I believe I'm on track again.

This on average only occurs about once or twice a year nowadays but it is a critical moment to be prepared for. It is so important not to allow a bad patch beat you up too much, both financially and plogically, only as it is really important not to let individual losers get away from you. Both of them are different aspects of the overall risk control feature, my #1 issue in gambling. And remember, my basic per transaction risk is 1% so at 4 internet winners that the account is only down 4%. I'm very risk averse and conservative in my trading.

Hope that explains things OK

[amanlza]

Hi ,
Here is the Wednesday upgrade for the 3 markets (last set out with chart in place # in brackets):

AUD/USD (post #72): Current 7882. We are practically net unchanged from yesterday but this hides the fact that Aussie hurried around 7818 this lunchtime (UK time), only 2 points out of our hard halt before falling back afterwards. In fact, the technical rationale we entered this trade on has largely gone now so I shall be on the lookout for a diminished loss exit possibility tomorrow.

EUR/USD (post #72): Current 12371. Euro has dropped back a little now but our commerce remains in profit and the technical rationale this is still intact, so I think we can risk waiting for another possible attack on the 12400 mark. If it becomes there again we shall surely move the stop to breakeven because I don't like to give markets greater than just two chances at a degree. We shall in the meantime leave on both the initial stop at 12250 and the limitation profit take at 12450.

USD/JPY (post #73): Current 10625. Possibly not the cleverest trade management going on here. We touched a 90pt open profit and I did not raise the stop to breakeven. From there it has dropped sharply and now we sit on an open 15pt reduction on our Yen trade. On the other hand, the technical justifiion is still OK so we shall, such as Euro, give another chance to shine for us turning less forgiving on this place.

Daytrading Update: A bit of a mixed bag now with both winners and losers, but great control on the losers meant when the dust settled we managed to complete a net half risk up on the day. It was one of these days of missed chances, one of which is attached for your inspection. Correctly identified the reversal from early morning lows but late in on the commerce so attempted to run it a bit too hard, resulting in a missed pleasant profit and a fruing scratch trade instead. Bother! (Not quite what I said at the time...).
Https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15272394361851715728.jpg

Back tomorrow for another update

Account summary (closed transactions ): Suggestion #10,003 (0.0%) No. Trades YTD 10

[amanlza]

Hi ,
This is the Thursday upgrade for the 3 markets (last setup with chart in place # in brackets):

AUD/USD (post #72): Current 7798. This market is surprising me almost daily. After lost being stopped out by two points yesterday, Aussie has collapsed today and we now find ourselves sitting on a 20pt open profit with the market looking very feeble. I will suspend my intention of yesterday to cut this commerce and instead wait to determine whether it could finally return to challenge prior lows around 7700 because we'd originally desired. No point in looking a gift horse in the mouth when this is what this trade is ultimately going to be.

EUR/USD (post #72): Current 12304. By comparison, Euro is currently looking threatening because of our long trade expects. After two failed appears in the 12400 degree we're back to 12300 and may now easily crack our stop in 12250. I might well look to cut this commerce on any asset as I do not generally anticipate a market more after two failed moves in a level.

USD/JPY (post #73): Current 10621. Yen is almost unchanged on the day but, for example Euro, has had two moves at a high degree, 10700 in this circumstance, and has failed to crack through. Without any actual sign of rallying today I fear now about the potency of the market for our extended trade and that I might also look to cut this tomorrow when we get any rebound.

Daytrading Update: Together with my week thus far status at 1.5R I confess today I just snatched in a modest ancient scalp on the Euro as it reached 2R overall. As it happens, the commerce did undo without much additional advancement and I am pleased to delude myself with the warm feeling of good commerce management instead of the colder truth of random luck. The attached chart shows all, ordinarily I'd have played for the breakout looking for 1R and obtained a scratch when it failed to deliver and dropped back.
With this week now done the bonus Friday is generally demo practice. But with Easter nearing I will rather start tomorrow on a Friday-Thursday schedule so as to match in two complete weeks trading before Good Friday. Additionally, as things have gone well on the intraday scale YTD I find myself in a place to have the ability to increase the position dimensions from tomorrow without undermining the 1 percent account risk illness. Happy days (before the next loser)!
Https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/152723943873714058.jpg

Back tomorrow for yet another upgrade

Account outline (closed transactions ): Balance #10,003 (0.0%) No. Trades YTD 10

[amanlza]

Hi all,
Rapid pre-update. Surprisingly, our trade, following being within 2pts of the stop loss has turned about and reveals 100pts of net profit at 7720 which we shall gratefully accept, chart attached.
Total update later
TRADE #12 - CLOSED #1/pt AUD/USD in 7720 for #100
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15272394401933815275.jpg

[amanlza]

Hi ,
Time to the Friday update. Being the end of the week I attach new charts for all three markets in order to get ready for next week:

AUD/USD (this post): Current 7713. The Great (Aussie) Escape. As mentioned in the pre-update, article #87 above, we have obtained a 1R #100 profit here after being #98 down and 2 points from being stopped out just two weeks ago. Who needs Steve McQueen? (Google the famous 1963 movie if you're dropped here).
Moving swiftly on, the chart shows Aussie now challenging prior lows near 7700. We will wait to see how this pans out next week before deciding what to do next.
Https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15272394411971489848.jpg

EUR/USD (this post): Current 12286. Our Euro long transaction proceeds to look at risk with our cease waiting at 12250. I missed to chance to cut this morning to get a c.20pt loss, which might well prove costly today. We will leave matters as they are over the weekend and keep everything crossed for Monday...
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1527239443392140875.jpg

USD/JPY (this post): Current 10604. Our Ye n long position is also looking a little shaky but not quite as awful as Euro just yet. Our stop is at the prior lows and we could only wait to find out whether the market can bounce and rally because we would like or is doomed to crack down. We will leave matters as they are over the weekend and look afresh on Monday.
Https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15272394451166818278.jpg

Daytrading Update: A friendly afternoon using a winner first up, yet another thriving imitation break reverse trade. Are you getting an idea that focusing on a limited number of patterns that you feel especially familiar with might be a sound idea? The now familiar chart is attached. Notice the small uptrend leading into the consolidation. You could actually look to exchange the range either way but it's really about a 60-40 possibility that the direction that a market enters a consolidation will be the same direction it breaks from it. Thus, my preference was for a long instead of a brief here - however you should always finally be guided by the market actions, not your predefined ideas.
I'm on a popular trading series right now, just one losing day in the last 18. Such runs inevitably don't end well and I've just increased my place size. I wish I had not looked now....
Https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1527239446341433650.jpg

I apologise I have no upgraded transaction spreadsheet for you today as I'm on the spare computer right now and the document is on my primary laptop that my spouse has pinched so she can use its DVD player to binge watch a box set of Glee. The price of love is large indeed! I will join it on Monday instead.

Have a gleeful weekend all

Account summary (closed transactions ): Balance #10,103 ( 1.0%) No. Trades YTD 11

[amanlza]

Hi ,
This is the Monday update for the 3 markets (last setup with chart in place # in brackets):

AUD/USD (post #88): Current 7707. Aussie has now analyzed prior lows at 7700 and can be little changed on the day. We will need to wait and see how it responds now and if it gives us the chance for a decent trade in either way.

EUR/USD (post #88): Current 12332. Euro seems to want to equal the impressive effort by Aussie last week to enhance my blood pressure and stress levels. Our long trade here obtained within 6 pts of our 100pt stop loss at 12250 this morning (UK time) before turning sharply back up. Given that this series of strength I will continue to render it well alone and determine if a worthwhile rally could emerge.

USD/JPY (post #88): Current 10586. The market is presently stuck oscillating in a very tight range of 10630 to 10560, worryingly close to our stop at 10540. At some point it must break one direction or another and given where we're on this trade we will sit tight and give it the opportunity to go our way - or take the hit at the stop, of course!

As promised on Friday, I also attach now the updated weekly transaction spreadsheet.
Https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15272394481005212052.xls

Daytrading Update: A fifth winning Monday in a row, almost surely a record for me as I am usually terrible starting weekly. Of late my weekend wine intake is well down into a weight reduction effort, I would really hate to believe that's anything to do with it!
It was a marginally different trade now from our standard recent fare of FBR (I am certain you can imagine that by now) plays, now a triple base reverse following an early morning dip. Multiple failed attempts at a degree do increase the chance of a successful inverse and also the prior fake dip was an excess clue, the annotated chart is attached.
Https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15272394501881236193.jpg

Back tomorrow for a further upgrade

Account outline (closed transactions ): Hint #10,103 ( 1.0%) No. Trades YTD 11

[amanlza]

Hi ,
Quick early morning upgrade.
Both our open trades in USD/JPY and EUR/USD moved into profit and, given the largely negative roller coaster ride we've had together, both happen to be closed at market for a few pips net profit on the pair.
As we already had a full 1R profit in the bank from our trade it means that this simultaneous trio have netted just over a 1R total result. It could so easily happen to be -3R, we really can't complain. So (UK occasions ),

TRADE #11: CLOSE 7.40'm #1/pt EUR/USD at 12452, P/L #2
TRADE #12: CLOSE 7.37am #1/pt USD/JPY at 10656, P/L #16

Charts attached, full analysis and update afterwards
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1527239451361155697.jpg
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1527239453757326101.jpg

Account overview (closed trades): Balance #10,121 ( 1.2percent ) No. Trades YTD 13

[amanlza]

End of Days

Hi all,
A very early update analysis today as my daytrading has, thankfully, finished quickly today, more on this later. First, though, a more relaxing analysis of this recent parallel trio of transactions in Aussie, Euro and Yen which has been finally closed out earlier this morning.

We netted only on 1.2R for the set, though for practical purposes it was a complete 1R in Aussie and 2 scrapes. What's showing for me personally is the maximum favourable and negative moves experienced in those three transactions over their lifetime, recalling our stop loss in each case was 100pts:

best / worst / attained
EUR/USD 61/-94/ 2
AUD/USD 100/-98/ 100
USD/JPY 89/-80/ 16

This sort of leaping around and leaving large open profits on the table since we need them to run farther is simply too much for me. My core daytrading basically works by snapping up fine profits when they are first offered, taking a small, fast loss if things don#8217;t go as intended, or taking a scratch if a trade partly runs either way then turns backwards. I am not good with watching retracements from a well profitable position or letting moderate profits slip into a reduction, I much prefer to book the profit or take the scratch and proceed.

Further illumination comes from examining the trade spreadsheet, updated copy attached. Following the initial ups and downs of those initial seven transactions where I was feeling my wayI notice the previous six basically perform as two web winners and four scrapes. This is very similar to the pattern my daytrading record shows and is clear evidence to me that I am doing here is copying my daytrading techniques on this longer daily timescale.
Https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15272394551042634038.xls

This wasn't my aim in starting this experiment, I needed to try to run things for longer, with less hands on active direction, for hopefully bigger trend-style profits whilst keeping tight risk control. It's evident to me that I am not, pyschologically/emotionally speaking, capable of doing this efficiently. People who have followed my daily daytrading upgrades will possibly have noticed that I've been much more profitable there than here whilst trading the exact same markets. For this end I feel it's time to call a halt to this experimentation and follow my core intraday trading. I've already learned enough here also it's a convenient instant, having got from all places and with the Easter break approaching.

Having done this thread and also enjoyed the experience of active posting across forums this season, I have further concluded that I've now both given and accepted as far as I possibly usefully can fromnigeriaforextradingas a whole. I first came just to see the excellent economic calendar and I think I will return to only that from now on. I'd like to thank everyone who has taken the issue to comment positively or like that which I've posted across FF, and it's reassuring to note that the genuinely rude or ignorant comments I've received have been rarer than my daily timescale winning transactions!

For sake of completeness and tidying loose ends I will finish here with now #8217;s daytrading upgrade, and the next, final article will probably be appropriately enough, possibly - a previous RANT that completes the discussion of the prior one on necessary traits for a successful trader.


Daytrading upgrade: A second opening winner today, providing us three in a row out of Friday when we notionally started this week due to Easter (see article #86 for explanation). Thus, a banner for us and for the personal accounting functions we will call this week done and dusted. That leaves 7 trading days left before Good Friday which I'll treat as an elongated week beginning tomorrow. When we do well we can pack up for Easter ancient, if it all goes horribly wrong, wellwe will at least have a chocolate egg to match ourselves!

To complete with the details of now #8217;s commerce, different again in that I chased an explosive move, something I seldom do since they're rather dangerous with a fantastic prospect of being captured on a spike. This moment, but we needed a wonderful test of prior lows before a direct line move through the trading range which is a really strong suggestion of more advancement. ThusI took the trade at the first pause - exhibited on a 2min chart now for clarity as my usual 5min one looks like a long vertical line! Exit on growth and also at possible round number resistance to get a wonderful profit, chart attached for your perusal.
Https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15272394571972799584.jpg

And that is that, many thanks for your interest, I hope at least the odd comment here or there has been of use to you.
Good luck to you with your trading!

[amanlza]

RANT #7 - Einstein, Pandora#8217;s Box and Gordian#8217;s O

The conclusion of the previous RANT (post #82), in suggesting the plogical game is an important factor in becoming a better trader, opens up a veritable Pandora#8217;s box of plogical and emotional factors that we can take a fast peek inside of now.

Trading is not rocket science. You may only buy or sell to open a transaction, it may only go down or up from entry, then at a certain point the transaction is closed. That#8217;s it, however we can tie ourselves into a Gordian knot of plogical distress over it. Why, exactly?

Einstein famously said three great forces rule the planet: stupidity, fear and greed. He'd have been a comparatively good trader, I#8217;m convinced. We know trading fear is rooted in loss aversion and we#8217;ve looked at that at a preceding RANT so allow #8217;s focus on another two.

Greed is an even more effective force than fear for traders, otherwise we wouldn#8217;t open a position at the first place. It manifests itself mostly by trading too large for your account so even a short losing streak of transactions causes severe financial harm. If your account drawdown is 10 percent you only need 11% back from there to recover fully. If you are down 50% you want to double click the account from there to get back. That is quite tough indeed and even more so if you envision your emotional state when half of the money has vanished. Should you bet small and restrain your risk you won't easily get into this kind of mess, and maintaining emotional balance will be all the easier for you.

Stupidity may also be tamed if you are patient and willing enough. At the outset of your trading you need to trade in minimum size for a long time simply to accumulate experience and learn. Consider this as an apprenticeship during which you won#8217;t make any real money but you will develop the essential skills to prosper if you graduate. You#8217;ll understand when you are ready, don#8217;t hesitate to jump the gun. Get really good before you commit fantastic money to your venture. But if you don#8217;t understand as you move on you will never graduate and your stupidity is going to be your undoing. In case you have been trading for a while but not getting anywhere, I strongly suggest you go back to square one and start your apprenticeship afresh. You ought to be able to handle it faster second time around.

The concept of the brain games is to keep on a plogical and emotional level. Trade in size, have good risk control, cut losers short and take small losses all play a vital role in assisting you to achieve this. They'll help you overcome the unholy trinity of anxiety, greed and stupidity and, like Alexander, cut through the Gordian knot.

[Fuco85]

Hi marcmarc,

not sure you will read this, and this isn't any worries at all.

To begin with, from a personal point of view, it is a real shame that you are going, as you're actually looking”real”. Not a lot of talking, no”bullsh*t”, and what you're doing made sense. Even more, on your”daily experiment” (the main subject of this thread), we can follow it live easily.

It seems that each time I discover a thread of interest (at least to me), apart a very few exceptions, it will not last over a few months in the least.
It could seem weird at first (am I a black lady, or some thing!! ;0), but considering it, it may actually make a lot of sense too.
There is definitely a life to live outside, and life is short as you quickly discover when gently getting older. So you would need to be veryyyy alone, or in need of a lot of focus to come and stay super busy onnigeriaforextradingforum once trading is just a task for you.
Anyhow, enough talking.

I would love to take the advantage which you may be eager to answer another question.
Once more, no worries if you don't answer.

To keep it very easy, I understand (or at least I think I really do...) trading is probably a 50:50 action.
It's not possible to state at 100% the price is going down or up.
All in all it is rigged against us on the very long run, and not at break even, because of the spread basically.

So you need a border that's greater than the spread in order to get any opportunity long term.
This advantage will most probably be quite small, and only achievable with the law of high amounts.

Afterward, in the expertise with your trading, along with other trading you have observed through the years, how do you state”confidently” a trading egy has a border (or a number of advantages whatever they are, it is not significant here)?

Can you utilize a number of trades to give you a fantastic idea that the approach probably has an edge?
If so, roughly speaking, how many trades would you need to give you an idea?
Fifty? A hundred? A million? 10 thousands?

Should you think that it is not really several transactions, then from experience how could you be confident that a particular egy (whatever it is) has most probably an edge?

I must say, with my small experience,”the control your risk (bet small, cut flop sharp at predefined high risk as a very simple example), let winner runs multiple R once it appears possible” makes sense.
It's like if you are losing frequently, but the equity appears to creep up anyhow (but if I had been 100% convinced, I wouldn't be aboutnigeriaforextradinganymore...).
In the end, really not simple to use (if I shut here??? Nooooooooo, I should have shut!! Or Sh*t I am dumb, I shouldn't have shut!!!! I am sure everybody knows the feeling;0))))))), however, it is logical.

Anyhow, enough ramble!!!

Thanks for your thread which was really agreeable and clear to follow, and it has (with a few others) certainly helped me thinking in my battle.

All of the best.
Cheers,
J-F

[amanlza]

Hello J-F,
Thank you for your kind words, and I will assure you I do trade this stuff for a living - hence the absence of BS, I can#8217;t afford it if I want to eat frequently! I am quitting posting because the proof is in front of me that I am better off only about the daytrading. I was rather hoping I could make another stream of income from longer term trading for a kind of diversifiion. I am sure from my expertise on this experimentation I could do this acceptably provided time and program, but the daytrading only suits me better as a person. I have always been one for the path of least resistance!

To turn to a question. My beliefs and experiences tell me trading is a closer to 50:50 game than many of us want to acknowledge and, yes, you need a trusted edge to pay both trading expenses and individual mistakes you will inevitably make. Now, the concept of edge is a tricky one because it's very difficut to specify cleanly; and many methods just have a border in particular market conditions, they are negative expectancy constantly.

That in itself doesn#8217;t really matter, provided that you've got the ability to identify the ideal times for your own method and apply it just then. Equally, all edges are basically marginal (or else there are many more billionaire traders out there) and so they also depend on exceptional subject, consistency and risk control to work. Without these things, the best edges will evaporate and, sadly, human nature isn't on our side for all these characteristics when trading.

I expect you can see how slick the notion of border quickly becomes, and also how many moving parts head to creating this up. So you only know you get a trusted edge when the proof is there for this, i.e. when your fine, stable, consistent equity curve tells you it's working and you're trading properly. It#8217;s not only a function of the law of large amounts, although lots of proof clearly helps. It took me several years, much trial and error (mostly error!) And literally tens of thousands of trades. I expect you will do! The good news though, is when you see your edge clearly and see it working frequently, it will become easy just to stick to the correct narrow path because you've got continuous positive reinforcement from steady profitability. Trading gets a lot easier at this point!

I could finish with three pieces of information for you from long experience that I only know are true: ensure your method suits you as an individual; risk control is the single most important element; and working on when to take profits/cut losses is considerably more significant than when to input.

Good luck!

[oxmiocalapkmao]

Hi marcmarc,

Thanks for sharing all of your really excellent information/experience together with us. I enjoyed following you. Happy trading.

Greg

[Fuco85]

Sense.

Thank you very much for your time, along with the pieces of information.
So easy... but certainly not easy:0)

Cheers,
J-F

[amanlza]

Hi,
Before reside trading commences in January, it may be useful to summarize in general terms the trading egy that will be employed. Several salient points can be created:

1. Only three markets to be traded: EUR/USD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY. They are all liquid, lively and low round trip cost markets. Markets that don't fulfill these criteria are just supplying additional obstacles which need not be faced. The more markets the better as it raises chance but I will limit to these three at least once since they're my mainstream intraday trading markets that I am most comfortable with.

2. Daily timescale candlestick charts are the only means of analysis. I only get confused by multiple timeframes and daily charts are convenient for the kind of low in-trade management kind trading I envisage for this particular experiment. You could equally well use bar charts but I am most comfortable with candles.

3. The charts will be clean with nothing except the candles. I am not a fantastic believer in indiors, they're nearly all derivatives of inherent price and I've yet to loe one that operates better than arbitrary over a huge sample. Thus, I focus on pure price action only.

4. Additionally, I only focus on technical price action without regard to fundamentals. I envisage most transactions will only persist for a couple of days at most and I do not believe fundamentals are generally very reliable indiors within this timeframe. Price will tell us exactly what we need to understand efficiently enough.

5. The core concept underlying trade selection is only to take trades that are together with the current dominant trend, and after a counter-trend retracement is believed to have failed. If the market is trapped into a trendless range afterward sensed failed breaks of either end of this range are acceptable entries. What constitutes a trend, a range, a collapsed retracement and a collapsed range break are easy eye-balling subjective price action judgements.

6. The whole position for all transactions will be entered and closed in 1 go. I can loe no net advantage complete in partial openings and closings therefore that I proceed with the cleaner and much easier egy.

7. Risk control is mostly managed in two different ways: each and every trade or order will probably have along with it an inviolate hard stop loss order; and the standing size will be calculated such that the highest risk at the hard stop is 1 percent of the account balance at the time of this order being placed. There are no exceptions, risk control is paramount.

8. Initial stops will be put at a price point at which the price arrangement indies the initial rationale for the trade probably no longer holds. The stop loss is tough and compulsory: hit the stop, cut on the trade, no questions asked. Should a trade accumulate an open profit the halt is likely to be moved closer to current price, but not further away.

9. Profit carrying leaves are softer. Profits will generally seem to be taken on any favourable expansion candle or price spike; or whenever a profitable trade appears to have run out of steam, all again determined subjectively from the price action independently.

Phew! Think that#8217;s quite enough for today.
Live trading commences 2 January.

Account Overview: Balance #10,000 ( 0.0%) No. Trades YTD 0