Your comments on my system please...

[mepeooxmeo]

The reality is, FOREX cannot provide a quasi-reliable income. This is the reality.

I am extremely confused when people on this forum discuss BLOWING ACCOUNTS. That is ridiculous to me. I've not ever met anybody in the flesh who has BLOWN THEIR ACCOUNT TRADING FOREX. I have never met someone who really created a quasi -reliable revenue trading this either.

I began trading FOREX 4 years ago. I just demo'd a very brief time then I snapped 5k USD with FXCM. I didn't like the spread. EventuallyI deposited 50k USD and used Interactive Brokers.

These are the HARD truth about trading forex:

you'll have successive winning weeks.
You'll have successive losing weeks.
Though you will have 10 consecutive losing weeks, at some point, you will have 6 consecutive losing weeks. Can you handle this?

There is not any system which may enable you to prevent the losing streak. Can you handle this?

The best 10 systems on this website will offer proof that you will lose for successive weeks. Can you handle this?

What if you started trading near the losing streak? Can you handle this?

You better think twice if you think FOREX can give you a reliable income.

It is possible to WIN for 18 consecutive months.... Followed by 4 weeks of losing crap. That is why you see people who post and then dissapear unexpectedly. That is the actual reason. The FOREX is obviously an unstable, volatile nature. I am pretty sure you could easily win consecutively for 2 years right, every month, followed by a 7 month bullshit break even or lose a small slump. Can you handle that?? What if you started trading near the slump?

In the beginning, forex is a Pastime

[sam10]

Extract from Market Wizards (meeting with Tom Baldwin):

Jack:”How did you figure it out?”
Tom:”It is like any other job. If you reside there for six months, you need to pick this up.” (referring to the pits)
Jack:”how can you make your conclusions?”
Tom:”You see the orders and you just trade it.”
Jack:”How is size an edge?”
Tom:”You have obviously never traded around the floor.”

Can you say that there is a frequent denominator with mythical traders?
The underlying reasoning may differ (techs, fundies, etc.. .) But the'core' beneath is equal to one another (besides risk management).

[mepeooxmeo]

Thanks for your answer intu.

I agree with your points. Assuming (I am not saying I can get it done ), but only assuming I don't violate those 2 points, in your opinion, do u think this system will be profitable?

The reason it's at 20 tp and 10 SL, not say 30 tp and 10 SL is to raise the likelihood that the trader DOESN'T do these 2 points you mentioned. As an example, when if were say a 50 tp and 10 s/L, I think the trader would encounter a major risk of accomplishing your points. The more complied the tp, the higher the risk on the mind.

Some other hints sir?

[Makelgomll]

At best, Currency Market is a hobby Should you treat it as a hobby then dont anticipate million $ from it.

I handle it as business, and expect my millions.

Another stuff on your post just doesnt make sense.

[mepeooxmeo]

I believe the original poster of this system, is supposing that about a 5 minute deadline... after viewing a trend develop and waiting for it to retrace, and then when the trend resumes, by getting in at the stage it exceeds it's past high or low by a couple of pips (depending on the direction of the trend), a winning chance of greater than 50 percent (using 1:1 TP and SL) and greater than 33 percent (using 2:1 TP and SL) will be detected in the long run.

[ballemmixxa]

What currencies do you plan to trade? And during what session?

I think that the part that bothers me the most is....
Notice the trend, if a trend retraces wait....

Are you really going to be using the 5 min interval to determine the trend?
I think that is the part that disturbs me the most.

If maybe you were using a higher timeframe like the 15 min interval, and some definite really exact conclusion, (like if price closes above??? SMA about the 15 minute Chart, then trend is up) and then going back and looking at higher highs over the 5 minutes TF to input, I would feel much better.

But based upon my failed encounters with reduced timeframes, I would be fearful of the 5 minute chart alone.

If you have an extremely rational, non-discretionary way (your way, whatever it could be) to say trend is up or down, (besides the 5 minutes TF) I would say it may be profitable.
Edit: Are you really just taking one trade per session? Off of the trend that develops?
If so, then maybe utilizing the 5 minute chart is fine.


That make sense?

Looking back at your original post, it seems as if you are already trading this somewhat. I would continue on. Honestly, I don't know how the 5 minute TF behaves and what currencies You're trading, maybe after a month or so... you'll have great consequences to talk to us

[mepeooxmeo]

Hello mr. intu,

Eur/usd, new york session (I#8217;m hongkong and have a day job. This session is around 9pm or 8pm my time and the only session I can perform )



well, 5 minute to determine the fad, but not one 5 minute pub #8230; it might be a 5 minute chart for the past couple days (which basically means it makes no distinction. 5 minute, 15, 1 second, 1 day, etc.). I guess I worded it wrong. At the point of entrance, 5 minute is being used. But the reference might be the last 72 hours or longer for example, OR it could just be the hour. Depends.

Yes sir. One trade. And off the fad that develops. In most likelihood looking back up to the last 24 hours simply to get an idea. So using chart upon entrance, but the reference is like the last 3 days, and the first fad of the session.

Yes, I'm trading this somewhat. But I am going to stop. Like I don't know if it will be profitable. Something is not appropriate #8230;I really don't feel confident doing this anymore.

I did read the THV thread by mr. . But that needs mt4. Me being in hk, I can simply consumer interactive brokers trader workstation or fxcm#8217;s trading station 2.0. It#8217;s a hassle to start a usa overseas a/c with fxcm to utilize mt4 but #8217;s exactly what I would need to perform. I messaged mr. to find out if any workaround.

I'm thinking if I utilize mr. #8217;s system, plus whatever I was doing#8230;. Then I think I will have the ability to be successful in the longhaul.

Thank you for your reply!

P.s. and I wish the admin would change the name of my first article in this thread. It's not my system whatsoever as I stated. It's another gentleman's system from the trading department. I simply couldn't get anyone to reply me in the thread in which I saw it, so I posted the question .

[Agwnoa7]

1) is it impossible to say what will happen (i.e. I'll win anywhere between 20` percent of total trades in any given year with no way of telling prior to, what kind of year I'll have) It's impossible to say what will happen. Why? Because it is impossible to say what your reaction would be if you had 5 losing days in a row. Or how about 15? It could happen even with the most effective egies.

Have you back tested the egy yourself, or are you expecting the person who suggested the egy failed, to find out the probabilities?

Have you been conscious of the London session near time and the effect that has on the New York session?

I don'rt want to put a damper in your ideas but you are right to feel as you do. It'll be a bumpy ride if it is a fantastic egy. Good trading to you.

[mepeooxmeo]

Hi ,
without appearing on investopedia, I might presume london closing would most likely be around 11pm or midnight hkt. I have no clue how it might impact new york. Without checking over the internet, I will probably guess london closes somewhere near the halfway stage of the new york session.

I didn't do backtest. I believe the entire notion is when a trend that is clear is seen, that waiting for a retrace and entering when the trend continues is considered a trade. However, the more I think of it, the more I am doubtful, as anyone buying, somebody has to be selling and vice versa. The only sure fire way I could think of, is to hop to the banks back when it is dumping or buying and the price is being pushed hard. But I'm so new to this, I do not even know how I might go about getting that info or if it even exists. I can simply produce a raw idea that's totally useless.

I agree with you about the 5 days or 15 times in a row. It could be demoralizing.

Anyways, I am considering the THV ribbon now. Have you looked at that thread in any way? I dont think I will be putting any transactions for sometime before I understand this THV more...

thanks to your response!

[Agwnoa7]

Here's a method of getting in on a pull back. It might work on higher time frames. Https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1519520847866275001.pdf I'm not knowledgeable about the THV egy but that I understand the trader, Cobraforex, is well respected.

[mepeooxmeo]

hahaha! Did scan this? Thank you dude...

[mepeooxmeo]

holy smokes. I'm getting dillusional just reading the thv thread.... Trix crossing the zero blah blah, once the blue line crosses the cloud and blah blah.... the hull.... Everything's all in mid convo....

The more I see, the more it sounds possibly giving up is the way to go.... wow...

[mepeooxmeo]

I have this vision I will start drawing lines on some charts, when suddenly this bizarre twitch will grow in my right eye.... I will draw faster and faster, the eye'll twitch faster and faster, then POP... eye explodes blood anywhere. Currency Market profession over....

If they place me onto the stretcher, there will be this grin on my head like jack nicholson's function of this joker, but it is just on half my head... the other hand, the mouth is just ordinary. I believe they call this type of stroke

[melipk27]

I post here, since I'm a new member and I can't make new threads.

I also want to hear your comments about my egy.


I'm new to forex trading, but I think I'm learning fast.
Until I earned $50 on a $50000 fxcm demo account.

Once I trade I use only limits, without stop losses so, if the market acts in a way that I don't anticipate, I only wait for it to get back a little above where I ordered a buy in order to prevent losses.

So far, this egy is working. Sometimes I must wait 1/2 days but it doesn't matter. Even though once in a while, the currency fails to get back to where it was, I could
accept the loss but it'll be greatly compensated by another wins.

I know I must take into account the rollover, however it is not too large, is not it?
Additionally I can use it to get currencies which allow carry trade! (Would you tell me which ones?)

So what exactly do you think? Is this a sound egy? Or my demo account is not realistic?

:? :

[hacklel1101]

I post here, since I am a new member and I can not make new threads.

I also need to hear your remarks regarding my egy.


I am new to forex trading, but I believe I am learning quickly.
Until now I earned 50 on a $50000 fxcm demo account.

When I trade I use just limits, without stop losses if the market acts in a way a do not expect, I simply wait for it to get back just a bit above where I ordered a buy in order to prevent losses.

Up to now, this egy is working. Occasionally I have to wait 1/2 days but it doesn't matter.... I like this method, also; been using it on demonion. It fails one of twenty or ten times: Examine it upon paper (that is, an offline chart or a older online chart with MT4's'autoscroll' off) or download and then use a simulator (LFH, VHands or the for-pay Forex Tester is all I know of) and you will see what I mean.
When the procedure will fail, it is irrelevant just how much of your investment you market off to keep above margin call, price never yields and you lose too large to recover. So the entire method fails.

To get your method to work, you would need to be proficient enough to understand which sort of market -- fad, sideways, countertrend, etc. -- on a bigger TF your current, smaller-TF chart area is in.
Or use stops, physical or plogical. Or reduce the amount of pips you take.

OR, just go back to work and do what everyone else is doing: Study smaller TF inside bigger TF, use a trade-specific equilibrium between SL, TP and #lots, and be willing to lose frequently and small or work years honing a proper edge.

(Yeah, I hate that last one)

[mepeooxmeo]

Men.... Latter poster is already too kind....

In spite of my shitty knowledge of trading (out of forex) and gambling in general, I will tell you any form of a martingale plogy will neglect...

so does that imply an anti-martingale will get the job done? Well, yes, however, the drawdowns may be enormous.... And the market has no memory. So does a 20percent each year, annually average over a 15 year period sound great to year? During which period, the draw down can be as much as -80%...

it will never work... the only thing I reckon, is either give up, or actually learn how to trade through the trading platform threads here. Read them all. The more you read, the more confused you'll be. But that's the point as a newbie. If you haven't given up after perhaps 1-2 years, I believe you'll be able to make good money out of the always...

. . .only after reading what appears like more than 150 hours in a month can I see the way my initial feelings about this was so wrong... it actually ai not easy.... And this is coming from a man who's actually ahead (because of sheer luck if you ask me)

[mepeooxmeo]

On what pairs will 5 moment divergence work really really well on? From what I've noticed... eur/usd definately works. . .like 80% of this time. . .and the usd/jpy works like 70 % of their time.

Can it be like that year round for all those two pairs? Any other pairs? I've discovered the eur/gbp it does not work so nicely.... Is there a reason behind that?

Thanks for any replies!

[mepeooxmeo]

The reality is, FOREX can't provide a quasi-reliable income. This is the reality.

I am very confused when people on this forum talk about BLOWING ACCOUNTS. That is ridiculous to me. I have never met anybody in the flesh that has BLOWN THEIR ACCOUNT TRADING FOREX. I have never met someone who actually made a quasi -reliable revenue trading this .

I started trading FOREX 4 decades ago. I only demonion had a very short time then I deposited 5k USD with FXCM. I used ton't like the spread. Finally , I deposited 50k USD and used Interactive Brokers.

These are the HARD truth about trading forex:

You will have successive winning weeks.
You'll have successive losing weeks.
Although you may have 10 consecutive losing weeks, sooner or later, you may have 6 consecutive losing weeks. Can you manage this?

There is not any system that can enable you to prevent the losing streak. Can you manage this?

The top 10 systems on this site will offer proof that you will lose for successive weeks. Can you manage this?

Imagine if you began trading near the losing streak? Can you manage this?

You better think twice if you think FOREX can provide you a reliable income.

It is possible to WIN for 18 consecutive months.... Followed by 4 weeks of losing crap. That is why you see people who post and then dissapear unexpectedly. That is the actual reason. The FOREX is of an unstable, volatile character. I am pretty sure you could easily win consecutively for two decades right, each month, followed with a 7 month bullshit break even or lose a small slump. Can you manage that?? Imagine if you began trading close to the recession?

In the beginning, forex is a hobby

[chamlicabiscol]

The truth is, FOREX can't provide a quasi-reliable income. This is the reality. I'm extremely confused when people on this forum discuss BLOWING ACCOUNTS. That is ridiculous to me. I've never met anybody in the flesh that has BLOWN THEIR ACCOUNT TRADING FOREX. I however, have never met a person who really created a quasi -reliable revenue trading this either. I started trading FOREX 4 decades ago. I just demo'd a very short time then I deposited 5k USD with FXCM. I used ton't enjoy the spread. Finally I deposited 50k USD and used Interactive Brokers....
The fact of the matter is, almost everyone will have a different fact. I sometimes read up about the billionaire traders of the world, to observe the way that there trading methods differ from that of retailers, and I came to realize they don't even agree on the very same things, there methods are as diverse as the ones you would see on FF. The one thing which they seem to agree on is good money management, what else will be bias to our method and style and would be more subjective than objective, and that is the actual turth. And also, just because someone does not post here anymore which does not mean they are not trading or they have failed, life just isn't that cut and dry sometimes, everything occurs in stages and possibly the reasons why you came onto a forum have changed over time. But your article is an interesting one I'll tell you that.

Anyhow here is the fact from some rather successful traders for anybody interested.


Here are a few quotes from some famous traders and investors:</b>
on trading technical's</b>
#8226; I have not met a rich technician - Jim Rogers.
#8226; I always laugh at people who say I have never met a rich technician I love that! Its such an arrogant, nonsensical reaction. I used fundamentals for 9 decades and got rich as a tech - Marty Schwartz.
on diversifiion
#8226; Diversify your investments - John Templeton.
#8226; Diversifiion is a hedge for ignorance - William O'Neil.
On picking tops and bottoms
#8226; Don't underside fish - Peter Lynch.
#8226; Don't try to buy at the base or sell at the top - Bernard Baruch
#8226; Maybe the trend is your friend for a few minutes in Chicago, but for the most part it is rarely a way to get rich - Jim Rogers.
#8226; I believe the best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get murdered trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by enjoying the trend in the middle. Nicely for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I've made a lot of money at bottoms and tops. - Paul Tudor Jones.
So here we've got a group of guys who have collectively taken tens of thousands of dollars out of the market and they don't agree on thing regarding how to make money. None. So what's a individual to do?
Is there anything that they do agree on?
Only one: money management
#8226; My fundamental advise is don't lose money - Jim Rogers.
#8226; I am more concerned about controlling the downside. Learn to take the losses. The most important thing about making money isn't to let your losses get out of hand. - Marty Schwartz.
#8226; I am constantly considering losing money rather than making money. Don't focus on making money, focus on protecting what you've - Paul Tudor Jones.
#8226; Principle number one of investing is never lose money. Rule number two is never forget rule number 1 - Warren Buffet.
#8226; In case you have an approach which makes money, then money management can make the difference between success and failure...... I try to be conservative in my risk management. I want to make sure I will be around to play with tomorrow. Risk control is essential. - Monroe Trout
#8226; Should you personalize losses, then you can't trade. - Bruce Kovner
#8226; The top traders have no ego. You have to swallow your pride and get out of the losses. - Tom Baldwin
#8226; Never risk greater than 1% of your total equity in any one trade. By risking 1%, I'm indifferent to any individual trade. Keeping your risk small and constant is absolutely critical. Larry Hite.

[Makelgomll]

quote The truth of the matter is,... Yea, the problem with traders is that they are ignorants, some people say they could earn money while some state they cant.

So of course they'll say that you cant make money from FX or as a matter of fact the entire trading, since they made money, they state its own betting or just a bad habit.

Yea, tell them to people who purchased G4 jets and 1 million dollar yachts

Those who cant earn money obviously will tell you that its impossible, yeah its impossible for them, but that doesnt mean its impossible for others.

It's similar to the dumb Men and Women say, you cant win the lottery, but guess what, in Virtually Every month there are winners

[chamlicabiscol]

[quote=Pipalicious;7515031#8221; Can you say there is a frequent denominator with mythical traders? The underlying rationale may differ (techs, fundies, etc.. .) But the'core' beneath is equal to another (other than risk management). [/quote]


Yesthey all appear to have profiled the market and have a grasp of the reasons why price move.


Tom: #8220;You see the orders and you just trade it. #8221;

I think that quote sums it up. I remember why I began trading orderflowI remember I was trading a night I think it was the Asian session and something happened out of the blue, the entire market was moving and I remember thinking to myself, what the fcuk is that, and what ever it is I wish to leap on top of it, I mean this thing was just clearing anything out of it is way, there was no way you can eliminate money if you had been following that trade, no way, a few people say you cannot quantify probability of trade and that's bullshit. In the event that you were riding that trade the chance of going into profit has to maintain the high 90s, you understand why I believe that, it is because to stop this type of surge going through could take an equally opposing trade to come in and meet price someplace, but the prospect of that happening is so slender I just don't view it happening.I shortly came to realize it was a big order going through, why the market was behaving so mad, although I could identify it easier today and currencies are accountable, It was perplexing to me, since this orders wasn't respecting any kind of technicals that I could see on my chart.

That is what I classify as a Tsunami Lol an order that appears to come from nowhere and does what the hell it wants. I probably said a lot, but I'll add that the market does have point of no return, I mean points when it'd take an order of magnitude to stop or transfer price the opposite direction.
After that night my entire outlook changed, I dropped that trade but it believed me a much more important lesson and ever since I have been profiling everything single minute detail concerning how money flows and why. Some traders likely wouldn't have learn from this loss, but that loss believed me among the most important lessons I've ever learned.

[Makelgomll]

quote Yes, they all seem to have profiled the market and have a grasp of the reasons why price movement. Tom:”You find the orders and you simply trade it.” I believe that quote sums it up. I recall why I began trading orderflow, I recall I was trading a night I think it was the Asian session and something happened out of the blue, the entire market was moving and I recall thinking to myself, what the fcuk is that, and what it is I wish to leap on top of it, I mean this thing was draining out anything of it's manner , there was... Interesting, which you trade only high volatility situations, with no respect to fundamentals/ tehcnicals whatever, just pure order flow.

It's a fair approach, however how do you deal with the spread, and how do you find these moves? Can you stay all day in front of this PC or the way?

[chamlicabiscol]

quote Interesting, in order to trade only large volatility situations, with no regard to fundamentals/ tehcnicals whatever, only pure order flow. It is a reasonable egy, however how can you deal with the spread, and how can you loe these movements? Can you stay all day in front of the PC or the way? It is a reasonable egy, however how can you deal with the spread
Lol Gekko you always get right to the point, but no I don't trade the news, I'd really like to, because that would be a wonderful easy commerce, but would everybody else as you know what is good for your little guy isn't great for the banks so they keep us out with wide spreads. As for how I do it, well I am not going to tell anyone that little bit of advice.

[Makelgomll]

quote This is a reasonable approach, however how can you handle the spread Lol Gekko you consistently get right to the stage, but no I do not trade the news, I would really like to, because that would be a nice simple commerce, but would everybody else as well as you understand what's good for the small guy is bad for the banks in order that they keep us out with broad spreads. As for how I do it, well I am not going to tell anyone that bit of information. I get the thought

I personally dont commerce the news, but still keep track of those.

[anammi]

There's not any such thing as a system in FOREX, for the actuality that you cannot predict the future. Anyone telling you different is not anything more than a CON ARTIST who's Lobbying on behalf of BROKERS... BTW, the Lobbying in this and other FOREX Forums is pretty huge.

FOREX TRADERS A.K.A. GAMBLERS that believe they can create a system or use indiors, James16 or whatever to Predict the upcoming behavior of a pair, they pretty much fall to the Gambler's fallacy...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

Nothing else to add. For today.

[chamlicabiscol]

There is not any such thing as a platform in FOREX, for the simple truth which you can't forecast the future. Anyone telling you different is not anything more than a CON ARTIST who's Lobbying on behalf of BROKERS... BTW, the Lobbying in this and other FOREX Forums is pretty enormous. FOREX TRADERS A.K.A. GAMBLERS who believe that they can create a system or use indiors, James16 or anything to Predict the FUTURE behaviour of a pair, they pretty much fall to the Gambler's fallacy... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy Nothing else to...
Lol Well call me Empire gambler.

[giego77]

It is up to your money management. For sure there is going to be a lot of weeks or even months when the losses will cause you to consider the expediency of being on Forex. Keep moving no matter what. It requires years as every other challenging skill on your life. You can't alter the possibility to lose. What you could change is the amount of money you lose. Allow the profits increase and reduce your losses as soon as possible.

[ballemmixxa]

The BASICS look great, trading with the trend,
and profit target larger than stop reduction.

There's still much discretion in your entries it seems.

Below are possible downfalls: (I scalped 1 min TF for 6 months, unprofitably):

1. ) You begin taking profits before 20 pips on some transactions, because you see or understand things, yet still take the 10 pip SL.

2. Bad cash direction, shedding 5,6, or 7 transactions in a row, are you really going to double up, payback commerce, etc? You state you won't, but when it occurs, with less experience, you get angry and frued.

So with great money management (1 percent or so per trade), no emotional trading, and also strict Profit target and Stop Loss adherence,

it's a fantastic start.