Trading what moves the market - NZD/USD

[Oxmlihogg]

Hello. That is ment for your forex rookies which are currently studying TA and feel like they are not going much further ahead. The FX market goes up with buyers and down with sellers just like any other. We're interested in how to get long before others push price up and/or how to market before others so we can profit from falling price. Finding clusters in which an overpowering area of orders exist is what we're searching to enter or depart our trade and where to base our stop-loss. Lets start with retail broker Oanda demoning their customer's orders positioning. (that is not 100% accurate as its a fractal perspective, anyone can chage their order at anytime, and it's an UNcentralized market. . Get used to it) There are order news rumor resources on the internet.

The Setup:
Attached in the Nzd/Usd order arrangement found on http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/forex-order-book#NZD/USD and those orders indied on the N/U 4hr price chart:
We have large sell orders at .8150 and directly above .8200, along with buyers under the market .7620-.7700, using some market stops under the lows.

Execution:
There are 3 basic confirmations to look closely at.
1. Nzd/Usd in these zones, ready to exchange a rest or rejection of those levels.
2. Trade must be in line with market sentiment (yearning predied on a favorable projected prognosis, short on disadvantage )
3. Nzd/Usd doesn't have the quantity to move the market like the majors have, but follows Aud/Usd very closely bc of geographical proximity and have the 2 highest interest rates of their majors. Our 3rd confirmation is on the Aud/Usd chart upon trade time so the need to follow Aud news/data is strong also.

So men, any trade thoughts based on this info? Where do you find the greatest possible transactions based on this info (entrance,SLTP levels)? Please no posting or with confirmation from indiors which derive from price.
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[Oxmlihogg]

Updating the charts. Nzd orders are still valid.

Some terrible news today about contamination of milk powder in NZ, which can be a major deal as dairy product is by far their largest export.

Aud has been hit with not-so-good news as well, with traders pricing at a 91 percent (highest yet) likelihood of a 25bps cut for the Aug 6th RBA rate upgrade.
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[mugila19]

So men, any commerce ideas based on this info? Where do you see the best possible transactions based on this information (entry,SLTP amounts )? Please no posting or with affirmation from indiors which are derived from price. picture picture Hi! I only found your thread. I hope that you come back as I want to learn this kind of trading. To answer your question - I'd sell it when it hits the stop of the buyers at that red zone. Right?

[Oxmlihogg]

Hey! The 2 red zones up top are clusters of vendors, you will find buy stops above those highs (right beneath the red zones) so I would expect to see price increase quickly, trapping longs, and sellers will reap the benefits. Where could you enter, and where could TP levels and your stop be?

The levels on the chart are half of it however. When price climbs in to the markets, there needs to be some negative news looming (RBNZ talks of a rate cut, for instance ) and the same if price falls into the buyers. In the meantime, whilst Nzd is in this range, let's continue on New Zealand news or Usd news that might impact the opinion of the pair. Lately when the Fed mentions taping'shortly' it has been awful for its higher-yielding majors like Aud and Nzd.

[mugila19]

Hey, Thank you for posting! Both red zones up top are clusters of vendors, you will find buy stops above these highs (right under the red zones) so I'd expect to see price increase quickly, trapping longs, and sellers will take advantage. Where could you input, and where could your stop and TP levels be? I frankly have no idea. Do I want to see DS's publiion?


The amounts on the chart are half of it however. When price rises in to the sells, there needs to be some negative news looming (RBNZ talks of a rate cut, by way of example) and the same if price drops to the buyers. In the meantime, whilst Nzd is in this range, let us keep up on New Zealand news or Usd news that may affect the sentiment of this pair. Recently when the Fed mentions taping'soon' it has been bad to the higher-yielding majors like Aud and Nzd. Ok.

[Oxmlihogg]

No, you dont need to read a book. You'll want to sell in to the reddish areas, pending poor nzd/positive usd news. You can do half the transaction at the very first red and half of the 2nd box if price moves there, or await price action confirmation just like a trendline break on an intrday chart in that region. Theres so many ways to enter, whichever feels comfortable.

[mugila19]

Thanks Emerald. Only news I have is to get USD. Looks like Wholesale Inventories came in worse than expected...

[Oxmlihogg]

Get a sense for what the market expects from Nzd and Usd by reading up on the most recent news. The major headlines have been Fed tapering which is USD positive and talk from RBNZ saying the Nzd is still overpriced, room to devalue farther, then their exports are now going to be hurt bc of Fonterra too.

[Oxmlihogg]

Wholesale inventories, unless horribly incorrect, will not affect the market too much. Start looking for big news or an important data release when Nzd is up in the red regions.

[Oxmlihogg]

I really like this uptrend for a short opportunity shortly. The traders which have been trading with the trend/breakout are all in on it, with their stops at breakeven or beneath recent lows. This can accelerate a down move since it did an upmove that moment, from shorts exiting. . Helping price move up.
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[isaobi]

I actually like this uptrend for a short opportunity shortly. The traders which have been trading with the trend/breakout are in on it, with their stops at breakeven or under current lows. This will accelerate a down movement since it did an upmove this time, from shorts exiting. . Helping price move upward. picture



Emerald
Really appreciate the thread! I have DS's novel. I have tried to trade in a similar fashion but I trade the currency futuresprimarily 6E. I frequently look to get lows/highs to be taken out to stop out retail traders, but I feel like I am missing a significant piece of the puzzle. Is there a way to see open and current orders on the 6E? I have used cumulative delta with mixed outcomes. Thanks for any suggestions!
Also, now was a good illuion on 6E. The lows kept getting taken out on the 1 and 5 minutes charts. On the 15 and one hr there was a major downtrend. I got stopped out a few of times trying to call the bottom and get long.

[Gaoxmgui]

Good call about the NZDUSD; on 4-hour it seemed too obvious for a reversal at the first evaluation of the yellow box, however it did drop 100 pips.

Can you sell on the chart below? Is is too late?

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[Oxmlihogg]

quote Emerald Really appreciate the thread! I have DS's novel. I've tried to trade in a similar fashion but that I trade the currency stocks primarily 6E. I frequently search for lows/highs to be carried out to prevent out retail traders, however I feel like I am missing an important piece of this puzzle. Is there a way to see open and current orders on the 6E? I've used cumulative delta with mixed results. Thank you for any tips! Also, now was a fantastic illuion on 6E. The lows kept getting taken out on the 5 and 1 minutes charts. About the 15 and one hr there was a major downtrend.... I would like futures over spot. /6E is your stocks of Eur/Usd essentially. Since the futures market is centrallized, your broker must provide you Time Earnings and some DoM(Depth of Market). Since trading place, I just have round numbers, Pivot Points, and a couple popular MAs on the chart to learn what others do.

Since Friday and the start of the week, USD has been strong. What I heard on CNBC so much is Fed Tapering shortly and Greece requires additional $$ a down week isn't too much of a surprise. The egy of this week is to sell rallies and ride the dollar strength. German French prelim GDP out in a few hours, Euro Flash GDP then, a German bond market as well. These may change the tide in E/U if all arrive in better-than-expected.

[Oxmlihogg]

Good call about the NZDUSD; on 4-hour it looked too obvious for a change at the very first test of the yellow box, but it did fall 100 pips. Can you sell on the chart under? Isn't too late? picture No trades are taken on Nzd/Usd. This fall has been from buying of the US Dollar since the exact same trend is seen on all Usd pairs. I wouldn't enter here. I would wait till price broke June 14th's high of .8140 prior to going short.

[isaobi]

quote I'd prefer futures spot. /6E is the stocks Eur/Usd essentially. Since the futures market is centrallized, your broker must give you Time Sales and a few DoM(Depth of Market). Since trading spot, I only have round numbers, Pivot Points, and a few of popular MAs on the chart to learn what others do. Since Friday and the beginning of the week, USD was powerful. What I heard about CNBC so much is Fed Tapering soon and Greece requires additional $$ a downward week isn't too much of a surprise. The egy of the week has been to market rallies and journey...

So would the TimeSales information or the DOM be what I would like to check in for the available orders and clusters of quits as you revealed in your examples above? The only real experience I have with trading off the DOM is very limited. I was looking for an open orders summary just like you have pictured above but couldn't find anything when I was trading now.

[Oxmlihogg]

I am not sure, you'll need to ask some experienced futures traders. Personally, I do not use DoM or TS like I still trade off place.

If you've access to DS's chat, then go on there throughout the US session. Futures are traded by those guys.

[Oxmlihogg]

Trade Setup, Short @ .8150 w/ 2/3rd place, Short @ .8210 w/ 1/3rd of place. Stop @ .8315

No major news coming from Nzd this week, a little from Usd. I anticipate the Fonterra milk incident to be mirrored in upcoming data though, and the market to extended the Usd since the Fed is set to begin tapering. If Fed doesn't taper, or admits that they are tapering next year rather than this one, there will be a dollar sell-off. In that case, I intend to shut out positions as well.
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[blwaice]

Trade looking solid EE. You did not point out the target in your write-up there, however I am assuming you're searching for .7700?

Meanwhile, irrespective of whether you're in reduction or in profit, if tapering isn't in September like expected, exit the place and re-assess everything? Sounds spot on to me.

[haoxca]

Oh, and on a related note to this tapering news - watch US bond yields too because they're the middleman between the tapering and USD strength.

[Oxmlihogg]

Oh ya, a target. . 7700 would be perfect if everything goes as planned. With the recent NZ dairy scare, I think these would be great quantities to get in profit quickly. Hope for the best!

[Oxmlihogg]

Trade entrance went great, just about 11pips of drawdown off of this entrance @ .8150. Should you test out Oanda's N/U orders, just about all the selling was cared for over .8150 so no need to average-down.

Stop is @ breakeven.

Exits are discretionary. . I'd like to hold half the position in hopes for .7700

All information found within this trade was introduced.

/ribbon
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[Oxmlihogg]

obtained some good messages out of you guys. Wanted to article and chart to reveal the possibility this trade had. Hope it opened a lot of eyes. . Even though it took a month to develop! Thread is secured as no more discussion is needed, but feel free to shoot me a PM and we can talk.



PS: Don't presume Oanda's order book is the key. . Its but a very small fraction of the market. Check on it time-to-time, jot down in which the orders are on the chart. . After a while you're going to have the ability to tell where retailers have been set by keeping up with market sentiment and in which their orders are on the charts.
Orders seen on Oanda *should* be a fractal representation of the retail orders in the market although not always. Trade smart!
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[Oxmlihogg]

Here's the Aud/Usd 4hr chart with around numbers marked where we will originally look for confluence. There are limit orders in those lines and we could assume there are sell stops under the highs because the retail market is long Aud/Usd.

Trading homework: search online to loe any order information, rumors, and important upcoming data releases for Aud and Nzd that may impact price.
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