My Gpb/Jpy trades

[ynnfa28]

2-6% gearing, 10%-15% risk, 10-30% Profit

[kimvimi]

The famed default MACD indior, (fondly pronounced MacD) does not seem to
be of much use in trending markets. The indior is the difference b/w
26ema and 12ema lines. This depend on the fact that the
26 ema is a rather stable (like it's - say at a ranging market) indior and the
12 ema moves around it creating positve and negative variation
within the macd average line (which utilizes 9 branch average). All that's fine as
long since the market is oscillating at a range between floors.
Soon as the market begins trending, gone would be the smooth curves,
hills and valleys. Now the macd begins bouncing off from an immediate cross or max things or whip lashes.

Guess the ideal indior of breakouts are tightening bollinger bands
or just plain old fundamentals, new events, mass hysteria, gaining confidence for carry trading and so forth.

Trading at the direction of this trend markedly reduces breakout losses.
The issue is when trend itself changes!!

Wish there is some indior of a change in vogue.

The only one available is multiple breakouts
in the opposite direction of the prevailing trend with decreasing tops
changing to climbing bottoms or viseversa.
A phenomenon that in some instances takes a month to decipher
and may issue couple unpleasant stop loss hits before the trend
reasserts and continues.

[kimvimi]

Entered long position with 100k (1lot) in 279. ATR being stop was
put at 182. Exit point at (S3)271.5 (moved from 271) after ATR dropped
into 5.2~5 range.

Pip profit - 750

[oxmcelo11]

Thank you for starting the thread. It would be quite nice if you are able to clarify your egy and support your transactions with charts and remarks. This will make it a better thread. Thank you for sharing the data.

Https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1527823668.jpg



Entered long position with 100k (1lot) at 279. ATR being 6, stop was
placed at 182. Exit stage at (S3)271.5 (moved from 271) after ATR dropped
into 5.2~5 range.

Pip gain - 750

[kimvimi]

The trading egy uses ceilings and flooring to establish stop limits
initially and entries following that.
Usually, the maximum potential stage in the ceiling(or smallest pt at
the ground ) is picked, which in this case was 179(watch the pivot pt on the afternoon
candle stick to 10/8/2008) right before everything headed down.

Now as soon as prices begin going up towards the ceiling, use a specialized
indior - atr(10) which stands for moderate movement for 10 times
to figure the stop limit. Say whether the atr is 600pips(which it was), the stoplimit is calculated as maximum ceil 0.5*atr = 179 300pips= 182.
That's the highest the prices should go to with the current volatility after
the ceiling maximum (179) is attained. If prices breakout above that, it is
then considered a ceiling breakout. Chances are prices would
retract before it gets there. In this case it erupts in 181.2.

Now admissions are created 250pips(maximum fin loss sustainable)
below the stop limit. So 182-250=179.5.
In the preceding entry it took a while before I saw that the ceiling maximum (my bad)
and had to make 2 entries to average up to the desired entrance pt. . .so.
However, 2 entries around 179.5 can be made intentionally if you
want to have multiple entries (say 179,180 which averages into 179.5)

Exits are depending upon where the price pivots and each half atr below
that pivot pt is a support level. S1 is half atr below, S2 is 1 atr and
so on. Ranges can go upto S6 or S8 (the floor on the opposite end)
but traders exit on S1,S2,S3 or S4. Going from S1 to S6, the rewards
growth but so will the risk.
Mostly would exit on S3 which in this case is 181.2-1.5*550pips= 172.95 or just 173!

(Can move stop to breakeven when price reaches S2 and prices may
only differ b/w S1 and S2 before going into S3, in this case
S2=181.2-550pips=175.7)

[kimvimi]

Dropped 250 on the previous breakout to the downside. Need to begin
utilizing technology indiors to attempt to predict the same

breakouts cannot readily be called and it's been an achille's heel.
MACD(12,26,9) should give some warning signs such as powerful
divergence into the disadvantage - potential possiblity (MACD is a really lagging indior) coupled
with a price close to the min floor level would suggest a wait and
watch egy. That is as close as I got, along with fundamentals
to attempt to predict a breakout. Most breakouts are preceded by
a narrowing bollinger group but need not always be true.

Stochastics are not much use in a trending market.

Any suggessions welcome! https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1527823668.jpg

[kimvimi]

Entered long position with 100k (1lot) at 279. ATR being 6, stop was
placed at 182. Exit point at (S3)271.5 (moved from 271) after ATR fell
into 5.2~5 range.

Pip gain - 750
Entered short(correction!) Place with 100k(1lot)... (see above)

[oxmcelo11]

Thanks a lot Sree,

I appreciate the explanation. I'd really like to follow up on ur trades. Please keep posting ur trades. A brief explanation on each trade would be valued.

Thanks again.



Entered short(correction!) Position with 100k(1lot)... (see above)

[kimvimi]

Do calculate ATR @ 550 or 600?
lichart atr looks diff. Can u explain. Thx

--------------x-------------

The atr(10) is from the daily charts. Open charts on candlesticks pattern
and place it to daily (revealing day movements). Now select
atr from the technical indiors and in parameters select 10 (I think the
default is 14). That is it! For the g/y pair it's been going up for as
large as 800 pips. It keeps shing and if placing my stops overetimate
and so if it is 550, I may utilize 600 and when placing my s3 (for exit), I just
utilize the current value which in this case is 550.

[Jomcece]

Hi Sree
Have been reading through your journal and am struggling a bit to understand your egy, would be a lot easier to understand if you could post some charts which I think would make it a bit clearer.Just another question do you risk 10 percent per commerce and so are you after a reward of 30% or is this an annualized thing.Interested to hear your comments and good luck with the diary.

[kimvimi]

The trade revealed in attachment, is entered with the egy above.

The maximum ceiling is approximately 161.00 and atr at the time was 10 that
put the stop limit at maximum ceil atr/2 = 166.00

it pivoted at 165.2 and is directed down - exit intended at S3 151.8
utilizing current atr which is around 8.8.

Entered trade at 166-2.5=163.5 (by entering twice @163 and 164)

4% used (2 lots) or $2000 in exchange out of $50k funds - could lead to 10%
loss on the downside - 250pips financial loss (see 2.5 above)

downside loss = 250pips* 4%=10%.

Gain potential = 1200pips*4%=48%
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1527823674181009314.jpg

[kimvimi]

Had to alter my leaves as volatility reduced mostly due to upcoming
non-farm employment alter news. Together with atr(10) hovering around 7.5,
departure is at 153.

However the ceiling has triple returns and could be an indior
of a major move to the downside. Might be wise to move the
exits to S4 - 149.5.

[kimvimi]

Lost patience and exited near S3 in 153.8 and pip profit amounts to 163.5-153.8~920pips.

Near 38% profit on balance.

[oxmcelo11]

Thanks Sree for the valuable info you're providing. I have a question if you don't mind. How to place the ceiling? Based on which day?

Assume I wish to exchange GBPJPY today, what will the ceiling be and how did you reach it? I am having difficulty understanding this component.

Thanks,



lost patience and exited near S3 in 153.8 and pip gain amounts to 163.5-153.8~920pips.

Close to 38% gain on equilibrium.

[kimvimi]

Max Ceiling (famous ) for today is 160.95(or even 161 rounded off).

Ghadeer, there's no means of knowing the maximum ceiling accurately as the
ceiling itself is a range. The only advice I have is historical candlestick
patterns. In 10/22/08 that the g/y candle rod broke below the preceding range.
After that event, the candlestick on 10/23/08 lasted in an undecided
pattern, reverting to the upside, heading down for a while and resting eventually
back at the center (such as a doji). It was followed with a huge breakthrough motion below another floor around 10/24/08. This leaves 10/24/08
candlestick highpoint because the marker of the ceiling maximum that's 159.95 (or 160 rounded off).

Why is 10/23/08 maximum being used as ceiling maximum - 161??!

The reason is if you have a second look at this candle stick, it's hard
to tell whether it goes back to the upper range or it goes to the one lower.
Ranges are at least two to 2.5 atrs in dimension (top to bottom). The candle stick
on 10/22 and 10/23 seems to have covered a range but seems to
have gotten under that amount (unusual event), which is why I eventually
made a decision to treat the 10/23 candle rod and 10/24 candlestick collectively as
one candle pole all the way down and this provides me the known ceiling max
as the maximum of 10/23 - 161.00.


yeah! Selecting a secure ceiling maximum is as much an art as it's amounts.

Every pattern throws up new challenges and lots of times you will have
to return to the previous pattern and atr to determine previous
flooring and find which candle rod actually broke through that floor.
The one that got below the (floor minute - atr/2).

Then one needs to study that candle stick to see how much of it belongs to the top
range and how much of it belongs to this one lower - if it's a brief
candlestick, you can pick the maximum and apply the same. However
if it's a very long candlestick with important presence in the prior range,
that's when it gets complex. Then a detailed study of this 24 hour
candlestick patterns (zoom ing in on that day candle stick) and
discovering when it broke through the floor and maximum prices it reached
following the breakthough should help you seal the maximum ceiling price
which you were searching for - hope this helps.







Thanks Sree for the valuable information you are providing. I have a question if you don't mind. How to place the ceiling? Based on which day?

Assume I wish to exchange GBPJPY today, what will the ceiling be and how did you reach it? Sorry, I am having trouble understanding this component.

Thanks,

[kimvimi]

The web site below shows the futures for several major Currency Market pairs and
appear to signal a sharp drop for Nov 20th(tomorrow).
G/y pair futures contract is conspicuously missing. A minimal employment figure news release at 9:30AM ought to signal a sharp decreasing tendency for usd/jpy pair and may possibly drag g/y using it.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx

Look under FxProducts

[kimvimi]

Researching for last few days with futures advice, it unlike in the case of shares does not appear to be a
significant forecaster for the forex market.
Need to take the preceding blog on predictions using futures to become rather
speculative at best.

[kimvimi]

Current Strategy uses maximum ceilings (in case of downward trending pair) as
a fair guesstimate utilizing chart watching the daily
and hourly candlestick patterns and attempting to speculate on high-level
dependent on the breakthrough candle along with subsequent candle stick high
points.

After analyzing historical tendencies on the g/y pair and calculating ceases, entrances and exits for the same, have arrived at a sensible simplifiion of this egy. The technique to symplify the same is to
use the breakout candlestick maximum and the most of this immediately
next candlestick pattern and require a simple average of both - as the
maximum ceiling. Atr/2 can then be added to find the stop limitation and
entry can be put at the maximal ceiling (could be sweetened by dividing
or diluting). The sum of money entered into the trade will be
(stoplimit - ceiling maximum )*sum =lt; 10 percent of total capital.

Since the range continues, I'm discovering that the entries are harder to make
at ceiling maximum and would necessitate increasing dilution - keeping the risk and
stop reduction (calcuted together with all the new atr) unchanged.

This manner the financial risk is unchanged and entry is made much more
prone to take place.

Exits - I use to stick to S3. This may be extended to S4 for moment
entrances and nicely below S6(or close to the ground ) for third entrances.
A triple strike on ceiling signifies a breakthrough through the ground floor
may be imminent.

A cautionary note: For tendencies on g/y pair that I have discovered is that
a very simple breakthrough (maybe not a multiple breakthrough through many
floors) when re - that's if it returns back to the previous
range without attaining a floor nicely over 2*atr is a sign of things to
come. Traders seem to be shying away from the tendency and
a future change likely.
Another caveat along the same lines is that a triple alteration from the floor.
This indies the same trader emotion of uncertainity in dis-continuing the tendency and further trades need to be suspended until the pattern either yields to the ceiling and does a unsustainable breakout out of the top and decides to return for fourth (and largely final) try to divide the floor!
MACD and Slow stochastics may be used to time a entrance to the above mentioned
reversals near the ceiling for massive pip gains - possibly including the
breakout! Entries cannot truly be made utilizing the original egy
like ceiling maximum and stop limits for these cases and has to rely more
on compelling momentum. When the momentum is set up, the stop loss
could be re-entered (ceiling maximum atr/2) along with also the sum traded calculated
utilizing maximum fin risk of 10 percent.

[kimvimi]

Employing number from the former illuion

Candle stick max for 10/22/08 = 168.
Candle stick max for 10/23/08 = 161.
So
Max ceiling = 168 161/2 = 164.5.
Stop Limit = 164.5 5.0 (atr/2)=169.5 (looking about right - midway on previous range)
Entry = 164.5.
Money which could be traded - calc the risk = (169.5-164.5)*cash = 10 percent of $50000 = $5000.
So Cash = 1000 or 1 lot. (2% of balance)

Subsequent entries can be reached at reduced points like 162 etc with
less money in the trade.

[kimvimi]

This is an easy picture best trade!

It doesn't get any better than this in real trading. THe fad direction was down.
Waited until price alerts went off if prices hit CPP entereed short. Price action
wasn't good for some time. Entered short below R1.

Depart 134.2 (130 [pip under ])

Truth that CPP was close to R1 helped. Otherwise the price action could have compelled
me to shut the initial transaction at a loss and run the next.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15278246171709361567.jpg

[kimvimi]

exited using profit.

Good direction. Even thojugh the stop loss pt was being tested by it, it delivered.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/152782461982269380.jpg
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/152782462167716653.jpg

[kimvimi]

poor trades.

Believed the trend was down and it moved up.

A demanding afternoon to exchange. With experience which needs to be adjusted.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15278246221074725869.jpg
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1527824624719912673.jpg

[kimvimi]

The trend was simple to predict.

Have to stop entering b/w pivots.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1527824626350408092.jpg
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1527824628417381424.png

[kimvimi]

this trade - notice there are 2 entrances. The trade moved
contrary to the fist entry for a while. Didn't exit since the separation
b/w rally and r1 was little (lt;100pip) - took that risk and it paid
off. In case the separation is big - need to exit at stop loss.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1527824630717447511.jpg
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15278246321074775307.jpg

[kimvimi]

Right place - right time.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15278246331535280808.jpg
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1527824635426002473.jpg

[kimvimi]

Nothing occurs after all that....
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15278246372082983730.jpg
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15278246392141502048.jpg

[kimvimi]

then there are issues once the direction changes - lost 5 percent
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15278246402090492898.jpg
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15278246421731839398.jpg

[kimvimi]

Nice.
Should have obtained in for another ride from pivot down.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1527824644940043481.jpg
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/152782464691878070.jpg

[kimvimi]

Feb1st trade, This transaction was an early morning news event pickup from an entry.

It is a pivot pt commerce - NOT a news commerce. Just that it had been entered during a news event

well done.

Target was at two *atr
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/152782464731232459.jpg
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1527824649736272142.jpg

[kimvimi]

Feb 06 2011
Need to wait around for 1 atr over pivot line before getting in on a cross commerce!
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15278246512040842954.jpg
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1527824652188198094.jpg

[kimvimi]

Normal trades. The reduction is valid
the upward motion cpp to r1 was lost. Need to unwind to10 pips
for cross movements accross pivots.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/152782465465216419.jpg
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1527824656564081161.jpg

[kimvimi]

Need to put price alerts - consistently!
Charge that cell phone.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15278246571210949804.jpg

[kimvimi]

The breakout over previous day high
No brainer trade.
The movement wasn't strong enough. It did breakout though.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1527824659962321715.jpg
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15278246611601018884.png

[kimvimi]

Breakout trade - shut exit - I woke up in the morn and had been shocked
prices simply came to my depart and reversed.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15278246621126512221.jpg
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15278246641175517240.jpg

[kimvimi]

got the news entry properly - want to reduce amt to 10 percent for
news entry too.
Left too premature - margin too low!!
Small loss - insignificant - but mistakes to be mentioned.
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15278246661000588151.jpg

[kimvimi]

There was 6hrly trends, If the daily trend was down, could have
made more money by leaving leaves at S1
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1527824668320749001.jpg
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/15278246711336777889.jpg

[kimvimi]

Beginning this diary to post transactions, exchange ideas and suggessions
on trading the exotic g/y pair.

Peace!
https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/attachments/1527823668.jpg