Thread: 5% Growth a month?

Originally Posted by ;

quote Hi Jack, I have been daytrading for a couple of years now and achieve about 5 percent pcm on long term average but I am not sure that one statistic has much validity by itself. How I get it's from a consistent little advantage on a lot of trades: roughly 60 trades per month, average 55% success rate, risking 1% of the account per commerce with an achieved average payoff:risk of about 1:1. I very rarely get a drawdown in double digits. You get it done in a somewhat different manner, 2% risk and 70% success rate. I imagine you exchange a lot less often than I do and I have...

With a 55% winrate to a 1:1 risk basis, I am surprised you earn a profit, doesn't the spread consume to your trades?

I believe that goal is attainable. Simply work on honing your advantage.

It is important that we as trader focus on operating within the market to attain our goals, as opposed to imposing our will on it. Either your trading reaches your equity expansion goal or not.

Originally Posted by ;

quote With a 55 percent winrate on a 1:1 risk basis, I'm surprised you create a profit, doesn't the spread eat to your transactions?

Hi Hmsr,
Great question, apologies for not being clearer first time: the figures quoted are net of spread and costs. And the spread on my trading isn't so bad, my customary initial profit taking target is c.15-20x the spread.

A 55% gain rate is greater than enough so long as you buy it consistently and do not let winners get from you, the risk control is very important. Think of it over 100 transactions: 55 winners, 45 losers, so 10 web winners. In my ordinary Ris 1:1 and that I risk a level 1 percent of this account per trade, then I create 10% yield on the account each 100 trades. If I create several hundred transactions in a year I can make a decent yield on the account fairly comfortably. And with all these transactions, the law of large numbers gives me a pretty smooth equity curve.

Originally Posted by ;

Hi, I have been trading off and on for a couple years now (all while making a little profit). Recently I got into trading price action after studying Naked forex (a worth while studying ). I try and keep it very basic and just trade from daily / weekly S/R along side a few candle confirmations (engulfling/kangaroo tails) on a min of 4hr and Daily charts. No indiors is used by me. Thus far I've logged the last 3 weeks in demo and I've manged to grow my own account just over 5 percent a month. I risk no more than 2% of my 5k account (#100) and typical...

if youré consistent, even Goldman would hire u brother. .

No, they really would not, seriously, no opportunity.

Originally Posted by ;

quote if youré persistent, even Goldman would employ u brother. .

This man talks a lot of sense. Pay attention.

Originally Posted by ;

quote Hi Hmsr, fantastic question, apologies for not being clearer first time: the amounts quoted are all net of spread and prices. Along with the spread in my trading is not that bad, my usual initial profit taking goal is c.15-20x the spread. A 55% win rate is more than enough so long as you buy it consistently and do not let losers get away from you, the risk control is very important. Consider it over 100 transactions: 55 winners, 45 losers, so 10 web winners. If my ordinary R:R is 1:1 and I risk a level 1% of this account per transaction, then I make 10% return on...

Originally Posted by ;

quote Hello, fantastic question, apologies for not being clearer first time: the amounts quoted are all net of disperse and prices. Along with the spread on my trading isn't so bad, my customary initial profit taking target is c.15-20x the disperse. A 55% gain rate is greater than sufficient so long as you buy it done consistently and don't let losers get away from you, the risk control is extremely important. Consider it over 100 trades: 55 winners, 45 losers, so 10 net winners. If my average Ris 1:1 and I risk a flat 1 percent of the account per transaction, I create 10% return on...

Great job on your very mechanical egy. I in fact am delving into s like yours, and I have discovered egies with winrates above 60% as well as 90 percent in one instance with 1:1 RR, depending on the time period tested. Proceed enough, and things start to get bad, I assume the exact same applies going forward. I ask you, how are you sure that you are 55% winrate will maintain. Do you not fear your egies skills will dissipate down to 50%?

Originally Posted by ;

quote Great job on your mechanical egy. I in fact am delving into s like yours, and I've found egies with winrates above 60% as well as 90 percent in one instance with 1:1 RR, depending on the time period tested. Go far back , and things begin to get bad, I presume the same applies moving forward. I ask you, how are you certain that you are 55% winrate will maintain. Do you not fear that your egies abilities will dissipate back down to 50%?

Hi Hmsr,
Today you're asking some very penetrating questions! But they're fair so I#8217;ll do my best to reply.

First, it's not a mechanical egy, I'm a purely discretionary trader. I simply don#8217;t even have it in me, with regard to personal pscyhe, to mechanically follow a method. However don#8217;t assume that as a typical negative on mechanical apparatus, it#8217;s only me.

In terms of egies holding up over the long haul, you're right, most don#8217;t. In my early days I dreamed up and tested a high number of egies and, sadly but predictably, not one of them continued a thorough test over many time periods and multiple markets. I will #8217;t even let you know how often I thought I had found the holy grail just for the subsequent testing signs to dash my hopes! This fact is what led me to take a technique that had a far more modest and marginal advantage and rather work hard through practice and experience to make that advantage consistent and durable.

Currently, at long last, to answer your central question: I don't worry it'll slide since I have been doing it for quite a while now - many years, daily, thousands of transactions - and that I manage to constantly hold my trade success rate in the 55-60% range without compromising either R:R or risk control. I also see that I'm getting gradually better with time, my trading is simpler, more natural and less stressful than it was previously.

Of course, I cannot guarantee it'll continue forever but if it happen that the decline in outcomes will provide me warning enough to stop and think anew. I don#8217;t really be concerned about this too much since I took a great deal of trouble to choose a method that I think is based on the fundamental nature of markets, the character of how prices move. Unless markets stop being markets I think my method is lasting across all liquid, freely traded, busy markets. Too many methods I've researched and seen have just been great in some market conditions, not applicable. I agree once more with your statement on this and that I resolved to pick something which might be used at all times in all states because I would like consistent yields to earn a living at this.

One last thing to make: I actually don#8217;t even believe the precise method is that important, it just needs to be not obviously faulty. I'm continually surprised about how many I seenigeriaforextradingwhich are just gloomy, certain to fail eventually. Assuming you have some sensible, the advantage comes out of you, not the procedure. The unpleasant reality is that pretty much all methods are extremely marginal, you have to take something and squeeze a constant advantage out of it by hard work and accumulated practice. You make the difference, not the method, I'm pretty convinced of this now.

Anyhow, hope that helps, good luck!

Anyone?