DeepChills thread

[Mokamquayabsolula]

Intro

Hello nigeriaforextrading.

I#8217;m going to begin learning the foreign exchange market and the way it works, and would love to add other people in it. The main reason I'm posting this here is to involve more people with me, which will be for my benefit, as it seems to be an exciting prospect to have some input in my learning, to maintain me motivated/disciplined sufficient to continue learning, and to maybe help any of you. I will try to update this thread as frequently as I have a certain amount of new significant information(New items I have learned, updates on transactions, etc.) to post. I think we need to anticipate a new post every other day or so, however don#8217;t call me out when I don#8217;t post accordingly.

So a little bit about me to give you a backdrop:

I'm an ancient 20#8217;s pupil in a state university in the US studying physics. I have been meddling with Forex trading on and off since I was 15 when I blew my first $500 account. Have had a couple hundred dollar accounts because then, they didn#8217;t blow out but I ended up withdrawing the money. I don#8217;t have much ";actual"; understanding of this currency market, which is something I want to repair. I think I have the philosophy for trading, so I don#8217;t even have the knowledge/information to make informed trades, which is largely what I plan to change.
A couple of days ago I transferred $237 in my Pepperstone account, and this is what I shall begin trading with. My goal is to learn before I earn, so I'm not afraid of blowing out this account. Of course, I'll do my best to not allow that to happen, as I prefer to create this account into my future ";actual"; account.

Macro Goals

Develop self discipline/Mastery of itself. That is my biggest goal out of all this. I would like to change my future rather than be stuck/constant in one state, as that's stagnant.

Learn how the foreign exchange and other markets operate. I place in other markets because if I see another fascinating opportunity I'll try my best to understand it. But for now, my focus remains about the foreign exchange market.

Earn money. Be fiscally independent. I don#8217;t have/want to set a time frame for this to occur because this will skew how I'm supposed to exchange to satisfy my time expectations that are arbitrary.

Micro goals:

Two hrs/day busy Forex learning/trading.
Trade my 237 account.
Daily 10 minute meditation. Helps concentrate/think clearly. So does not utilizing.

And there#8217;s lots of other things that would bore you guys so I'll leave it out for today.

Philosophy

My forex philosophy is simple: commerce when you completely understand why you are doing what you are doing. I don't accept ";technical"; analysis and won't use it. I don#8217;t find it helpful in any way, as I feel it#8217;s only many distinct methods of following the short term tendencies, and that real Forex moves don't ";depend"; about those technical investigations to occur, nor are they represented by them. I prefer to trade on why they actually move, which we could find by fundamental analysis. That is the reason why the majority will depend on fundamental reasoning I will back up with details which produce a case for why a movement that is certain ought to be expected and historic data. I think there are no ";keys"; besides simply having a common sense philosophy. My cash is a means to demone confidence.

Just because it works doesn#8217;t mean it#8217;s right. I prefer to be aware of the reason I anticipate a specific trade. I think internal impacts are significantly more significant than external ones. Being truthful and self-mastery are more significant than making money. I understand the markets are not what I want them to be, so I don#8217;t exist to the markets. Therefore, the market doesn#8217;t care for mepersonally, nor do I care about it. Being worried over transactions does not change/alter fact in any way whatsoever, so just relax and work on which I can control. I know these are ideas, but I#8217;m just putting it out there since it#8217;s part of my philosophy.

Trade without any expectations. I think arbitrary restrictions(eg. You should only expect to consistently earn ~1-2 percent of your capital annually, 300 conducts are a high/rare score in ODI cricket, you can just run so fast, etc., all such arbitrary limitations were distinct in different eras, which explains the reason I think they were just the consequence of mental limitations put on for no reason) affect us more than any external influences, therefore that I#8217;m going to really go for any risk/trade I deem fair with absolute disregard for these limits. Whenever is a will, there is a way. That is just another reason I won't go into a trade, but with investments which following analysis I have decided to act in a way that is specific. If what's supposed to occur happen does not, I'll look at the fundamental reasoning behind and return to the drawing board. Notearn x amount of pips,"; but to predict market movement. I don#8217;t should generate money, I#8217;m joyful living on basically pennies/day, I have an extremely frugal lifestyle anyway. That explains the reason why I#8217;m not emotionally invested/will try to not be(eg. Assessing trades nervously every 5 minutes to find out what occurred, etc.) and won#8217;t get excited/dejected it over.

I am going to exchange my account as though it were a proportion. I wish I could completely eliminate the dollar value, but alas I can not. I will only make transactions that later producing, I can peacefully sleep at night. I read since the way is most likely not the way to generate money money making ought to be a activity. I try to maintain my own biases out of the way and will bring that philosophy. Make small profit transactions I'm completely confident of rather than a massive profit ones that I#8217;m not confident in. Do not be ".

Stay the hell away from fads, but know when a fantastic business opportunity reveals itself. I#8217;m generally quite good at spotting fads and bullshit, which is the reason why I hope to be investing in fundamentally strong investments .

I'll prefer if the posters responding to my thread don't respond to some bit of information I have posted with their ";opinion"; if they think I am wrong. In managing things I have an personality, and would rather maintain my mental frame. But if there is a objective bit of information I have posted, which is false, please don't hesitate to correct me. I think everybody is just as clueless as the next person and most people are only pretending to know, therefore I #8217;d prefer to be wrong in my shoulders than on someone else#8217;therefore. There's not any space for self-doubt.

I#8217;m a nihilist anyway, nothing things. The reason of posting this above is you know which kind of a trader you're addressing, and to help you make a decision whether or not you're interested to continue reading my posts.

Learning objective/What to anticipate for the upcoming

I#8217;m going to hit the library and take a peek at some fiscal documents/books. For starters I am going to study solely USD/JPY(I'm not a fan of this EUR/USD because the Euro represents of way too many countries which would make getting a fantastic picture unnecessarily harder) in order to gain an comprehension of the aspects that impact currencies. I shall begin by comparing different economic indiors(GDP, growth rate, population, exports, interest rates, etc.) at different times and determine how they correspond to the currency values in order to try and find out which factors affect it the most. I think that a fantastic timeframe to compare them will be 1996, 2003, and current date since these are not periods of economic collapse. . I will read up on central banks, their purposes, and the importance of the interest rate. I place them here and will note my observations down and hope they will interest whoever is going to follow me.

I want to follow that up in the future with:

What are currency values based upon? What are they pegged to? How frequently is currency published? Total value in flow of this USD/JPY?
The central banks' interest rates make it easier for private individuals to accept loans, but do they actually promote economic growth so much that currency rates would be affected compared to a different country's? What factors promote/obstruct economic expansion? The economic development made/created after interest rate changes.
Who would be the biggest currency traders? When/why do they exchange? What are the ramifiions of those transactions?
Compare the trade between the united states and Japan and try to find out if there is a trend. To which nation is there a net outflow? What effect does this have on USD/JPY? [Will probably use Wikipedia for this]
Do companies which are initially German, but have offices in Japan, commerce in JPY or EUR when coping with the USA? [Not sure where to find an answer for this]
Reading/understanding central bank reports, [I will find these in the banks#8217; websites]
Produce a sheet of information comparing the currency rates and various economic indiors of Japan and the USA at different times, and to try to weigh exactly what value every indior has. [I plan on utilizing TradingEconomics for this]
Produce a market liberty report which measures the free market-ness/heavy regulation-ness Of the markets, and the effects of government policies on both. [Not yet certain how to attain this]
I've read somewhere in the past that the Japanese government invests internationally in certain specific time intervals. Attempt to figure out if there's a date for their bonds/upcoming investments and I would like to read more about this. Find additional information on investments that are public that are Japanese. What do the US and Japan trade/invest in largely?
Evaluate USD and the JPY with respect to other currencies in different time intervals. Determine which country had the influence on the USD/JPY pair at a time that is certain. Determine why.


Basically, I want to learn what moves currencies and how much it moves. I hate uncertainty, I don#8217;t bet. I would like to invest.

If you have any reading recommendations linked to the material/questions previously, please feel free to post them. I will attempt to follow up this article with answers that I have thought of. Hopefully this will help you guys too.

I'll also post any transactions I decide to make and the rationale behind them.

Daily audio

all these posts will include an accompanying audio video which reflects my mood. Here is the one for now by one. Fear of Stress - Passenger:

[Mokamquayabsolula]

I decided to change my egy and also take a look at charts. So I went through over a few, and attempted to create some averages/numbers on how charts act with 4H candles.

Here is what I discovered:

For each H4 candle that was a swing candle(significance reverse in direction to the former candle), it meant there were ON AVERAGE from 4.3 candles at the contrary direction. Since we need at least 1 candle at an opposite way to understand if the candle is in the contrary direction or maybe not, I subtracted 1 from total following candles and reached a mean of 3.32 candles following in precisely the exact same direction of their very first swing candle.


However, I attempted to make it even more accurate, and attempted to check it for candles that were in the contrary direction to the former candle AND was bigger than the previous one when measuring the total distance between the open/close. I arrived to a mean of 6 CANDLES/SWING. And taking the very first candle outside, we reached 5 candles/swing, which means after you see the first candle move in the opposite way of the former candle, and IF AND ONLY IF this candle has a bigger distance between open/close compared to former candle too, it was usually followed by 5 more candles at precisely the exact same direction.

All these, to me, look very interesting findings. Should you buy/sell any swing candle, then that was bigger in proportion ON AVERAGE you will have 5 candles at precisely the exact same direction. You could buy every single swing, and just shut out the trades 20 hours(5*H4) later, and you will be guaranteed to be in profit after a variety of trades. I am interested to check my hypothesis and use different parameters too to figure out the best way of discovering entry into a candle, but to tell the truth, the idea of entering a swing candle bigger than its previous one is not bad considering the returns.

Query:

Does anyone have a way to quantify candles following a swing in MT4? Currently I did it using a calculator but it was work. Would like to check this on several different charts across different dates do I go about programming this type of thing? Thanks

[Mokamquayabsolula]

Note to self: MA, EMA PA, and every additional indior in existence is futile. The main reason I think is because the only input in these indiors is the data in the chart, nothing. You may find exactly the same information from only looking at a chart.

Back to fundamentals.

[Mokamquayabsolula]

Music Motif for the Afternoon:



I#8217;ve recently been Studying George Soros#8217; book The Alchemy of Finance. Nearly all of this article will be what I # 8217; t being rehashed by me. In the novel, he presents a concept he calls reflexivity. From my understanding, it seems his concept is that because the default state is the imperfect human, our comprehension of markets has to have a part of imperfection. This means there is obviously a traders#8217; prejudice present in the market, which is in reality completely independent of market tendencies. And lots of times, this bias causes the markets to move where the traders want it to, resulting in a cycle, which often ends when the " reality"; of the market was stretched.

In my opinion, it is an interesting theory, but it is quite abstract. Personally, I agree that in the markets that the human state is the pristine condition, however, since the idea is subjective, it seems hard to apply to the markets without being immersed in/understanding them indoors and outside. I'm nowhere I#8217;m not in touch with any traders who understand the ground realities, my sole source of input are charts on my computer screen.

The model he proposes for computing currency movements is one dependent on 8 factors. 4 of them are rates, and 4 are amounts. These are as follows:E = Exchange rate I = Nominal interest rate p = Domestic vs foreign prices v = Level of economic action N capital flow S capital flow T = Trade balance B = Government funding
Another thing to notice is that in his opinion, there aren't any one-way relationships between these factors. Everything is round. The exchange rate may influence the rest of the factors, and the rest of the factors can influence the exchange rate.

A basic relationship is as follows:
(#8595;T #8593;N #8593;S) #8594; #8595;e

I have been looking for a similar model, as is evident in my previous articles. So determine what we can attain and I shall attempt to analyze. I believe his model isn't comprehensive enough, but it has the fundamental concepts down. I would add currency in circulation, foreign national currency reserves, and a few other factors. However, I would love to analyze the function of participants#8217; prejudice in the currency markets with a model of my own.
An example I read in the novel is that contemplating trade balance is among the main things to remember in order to test currency rates, but the US/CHF reinforced from 1982-1985, though the US trade balance was ineffective, that's the reverse of what it needs to#8217;t done, by a completely theoretical point of view.

Anyhow, since I stated I will be trading just USD/JPY, here is a comparison I did using George Soros#8217; model of the 2 currencies.



In order to understand it better, I stumbled the 4 distinct dates according to highest to lowest values for the USD to determine if I could find a pattern(Currency index rates signifies Real Exchange Rates. More on this later in the article):


I think markets may have priced in future exchange rates, which is why the obvious didn't happen. I could not find any patterns which could accompany beliefs.

Another matter Soros commented about was that there are a few fundamental tenets of the economy that are independent, and permanent. Each one of the tenets will also be self-validating/self-fulfilling:The importance of S for a market increases throughout the life span of a trend that is self-reinforcing. The longer the trend has been ongoing, the more significant S will be for it. The prejudice is a trend following prejudice. A change in tendency induces an increase in S. Currencies move in large waves that last for decades, as that is the time it takes for biases to split. Short-term volatility raises when a long-term tendency is disrupted.
I realize this post is mostly based on someone else #8217;s thoughts of the economy. It is a person whose doctrine I respect I wished to understand his take on it. I plan to post more of my own opinions/theories moving.

That I will attempt to create my own model shortly, which has distinct factors, as I mentioned previously, and attempt to enter more details. I believe 2009 isn't the best case because of the recession, I'll attempt to take data from 20 decades and hopefully that'll be more accurate.

In order to create my own model, I have to attempt and comprehend the point of view of the money movers. I have to realize how much currency is moved by whom. I will attempt to include traders#8217; plogies in order to find out if I can create a model of the currency markets, and not an one.

Things I learned:
Nominal exchange rates are the ratios of currency prices, such as all of the FX rates supplied are minimal rates.
Real exchange rates are calculated by the ratio of the price of goods in markets. I find this to be a better measure, and might love to understand discrepancies in real exchange rates change exchange rates.

To do:Recreate the chart above with more factors. Utilize the ones with the new ones within a time period with data points and attempt to identify any trends. Know participants#8217; prejudice in the markets. Massive project. Create my own economic comprehension from the ground up. This is imperative if I#8217;m to comprehend the market completely. Have it be sensible and grounded in reality than what is considered. Work on my candle averaging concept. I have recently found rangebars, and they actually seem to be a better idea to work with this than candles that were normal. Soon enough results can be posted by me on that here too.
I wish I had more time to complete everything in my to-do list at the moment. But oh well.

Notes:
My forecast on the SP decreasing following Trump#8217;s announcement was right. I called about a week ago, on this particular thread, a fall in prices of the SP on the day of the announcement, and also the market dropped about 16 points. It's, however, recovered since then.

Upgrades on trading account:
The value of my account has dropped to $210. Before I have a plan, I have decided to completely cease trading. I will add a second $100 to my account at the upcoming week, its value will increase to $310 .

[Mokamquayabsolula]

Confused as to when the Nikkei 225 dropped, JPY gained worth. The USD gained worth, although SP 500 dropped in value.

One concept is traders wanted to sell off their foreign funds in exchange for cash. This could be for future investment at the N225, because it just hit a decade-long large, or it could be for security, anticipating a decrease in the value of the USD due to the SP falling down, hence selling their foreign assets for JPY and raising its worth. They could have wanted to buy the N225.

When shortly the N225 goes much higher, I believe that should be an indior individuals have spent inside after taking money from the US. And when USD/JPY increases in value(which means JPY falls) I will know people are back to buying American resources. In case USD/JPY decreases in value(JPY increases) it'll imply Japanese investors are growing skeptical and would much rather buy the N225.

My $0.02.

[Ssawz]

Hey DeepChill ,

I see that you're more of a fundamental kind of man when I was just starting out (4 years ago) when I could not even properly draw SR lines on a chart that I needed to resort to fundamental analysis merely to have a better feel of the market.

However, what I've realized through that procedure was a great economist doesn't make you a dime in the market. Yeah understanding the intricacies of the drives the markets could be helpful if you're investing and come in handy. However, with trading speculation I would rather exit fundamentals I wouldn't delve too deep, but spend more time just gazing at charts for hours per day (lower the better, like moment or 5M chart)

Heightened ability to feel your way through the market which can result after a long length of screen time technical knowledge will get you a lot further than fundamental analysis will in trading. After all we are all here to earn some money are not we ? On correlation I recommend you read John Murphy's Intermarket Analysis, yen and euro are heavens when stocks move low they jump higher, on the opposite commodity currencies will become weak. EURGBP cross also heavily GBP or affects EUR crosses I'm sure you know that all. But if you want to delve deeper like I said I would read Intermarket Analysis.

On central banks and their quarterly/monthly/annual statements and economic indiors, what matters the most is reaction not the actual amounts after all we are playing speculation.

[keilhgc]

[quote=DeepChill;10446111]Introduction Hello nigeriaforextrading. I#8217;m likely to begin studying the foreign exchange market and how it functions, and would like to add different individuals inside.... Philosophy My forex philosophy is simple: trade why you are doing what you are currently doing, when you understand. I don't accept ";technical"; analysis and will not use it all in my trades/learning. I don#8217;t find it helpful at all...;.

If you're only just starting out, then how do you know whether you loe TA helpful or not seeing as you clearly have not been in the industry long enough to know what works and what doesn't.

Most of us come into this company imagining that we'll be those with the magic remedy, that we'll discover the way to achievement that others cannot see, yet this illusion shatters speedily. The trick to success would be to discover and then to apply a system of personal and money management in order to minimize self-sabotage. Most cannot do so, but those who do, become consistently profitable traders.

You've got far more to learn than you realize, but I want you every success.

[Mokamquayabsolula]

Created a new EA.

I have attached it to this thread so anybody who's interested can view the outcomes. Going to check at least 1-2 months prior to transferring my real cash here.

[Mokamquayabsolula]

My account which was down to $4k final week is now up to $10k using the new EA.

Great day.

[maqwlgoomwz15]

Do you mind sharing with your preferences for the EA?