Thread: 2018 Trading Account Experiment

Hi,
the aim of this thread is to launch a 2018 trading account experiment using a fully disclosed trading system with a full audit trail and accessible to anyone interested.

I have of late been posting tonigeriaforextradingideas and opinions from experience without supplying any hard evidence of trading ability to back the words up. I've been trading my own account fulltime to get a living for the past almost nine years now, with a short-term, intraday methodology on 5 min charts. I haven't posted this to Trade Explorer as my dealing platform doesn't support it, and it's impractical for me to place links on the forum beforehand given the nature of my trading. I've also for a while had the belief that my intraday principles could reasonably successfully translate to more timeframes. This experiment attempts to solve these questions.

I shall run an actual trading account on this particular thread with daily charts and posting planned entries and exits beforehand, to be actioned via standing market orders. This will create a verifiable audit trail and that I will provide a concise summary of the current account position (as much as the last closed transaction ) in the conclusion of every article. To keep me stimulated I shall commit a #10,000 account to the venture, however standing size will likely be such that maximum risk per trade (yes, all transactions will incorporate an inviolate hard stop loss order in the market) is just 1 percent of the account. I am not seeking to create any meaningful money on this experiment, I shall be continuing my mainstream intraday activities in parallel. No additions or withdrawals will be made and also the position size will remain in a 1 percent risk of the account balance at the time of the transaction. Hopefully, this will increase with time!

As with my intraday trading, I will be trading just 3 markets: EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and USD/JPY but with just daily charts here. I'm UK based and that I plan normally to post just in the evenings UK time, after I've finished my daytrading activities. I shall attempt to describe clearly the rationale for every trade in addition to post-trade analysis in order to turn into a helpful trading journal. The thread does not as a necessity require involvement from anyone else but I will be pleased to take any comment and queries from anyone who may be interested.

PLEASE NOTE: This is an experiment and I cannot give you any confidence as to the possible outcome. I will trade carefully and diligently in line with my established egies but I have not before traded forex on anything outside intraday on a 5 minute chart. It will be a good learning experience, ideally a successful proof of principle and also a fun ride however I really cannot promise you anything in any way. It is almost sure I shall return to a shaky start as I know the principles of the daily chart timeframe but there's not any escaping this learning curve.

My next article will begin with a brief description of my planned trading egy.
I shall be seeking to begin live on two January 2018.


Account summary: Balance #10,000 ( 0.0%) No. Trades YTD 0

Subscribed, btw create TE too?? . Good fortune in 2018!

Thank you Marc for beginning such intriguing experiment. Your trading egy is real deal among total of crap threads . You mentioned in several articles that your Risk/Reward is almost 1:1 with winning ratio 55%. Do you intend to stick with 1:1 R/R Ratio or with softer exits it can float?

Anyhow I want you good start and profitable end.

Subscribed

Hi Ihor,

Welcome to this thread though I guess you might be ploughing a lonely furrow!

I will guarantee you I do really trade for a living. I can not claim anything that I do is the real deal but at least what I've set out within post#2 is pretty much a complete and solid trading system that is grounded on successful market-tested principles. I understand that it doesn't appeal to many because it doesn't give a rigid black box mechanical EA that you can simply plug in then count the cash rolling in, and it needs discipline, unwavering risk control and losers to be siphoned cut but, sadly, that is the essence of trading. I'd enjoy it simpler, also.

As for the performance figures, funnily enough my outcomes for 2017 are a 56% success rate at nearly exactly 1:1 reward:risk, therefore I've consistency if little else! This is what I reach in my intraday trading and that I honestly don't know whether it's going to be exactly the same here. The more timeframe will allow winners to operate on further but may also expose me to volatile market moves from scheduled major economic announcements, overnight spikes and the like, something I never face intraday as I am always flat at these times. Thus, the stops here would need to be comparatively wider than I trade intraday. I won't be accepting trades unless I feel there's at least 1:1 realistically available but the exit process will be a little softer, at least at the outset.

Finally, don't anticipate a great beginning, I am going to be finding my toes and relaxation level for some time in order deference into a strap line, recall: Non omne quod nitet aurum est!

Have a good Xmas, starting live 2 January

Hi Cryptofunk,

A warm welcome to you also; that is now 2 greater than I anticipated!

To answer your question, as stated in article #1 my trading platform doesn't support TE. I did look at transferring to mt4 and join through that but, to be honest, it was too confusing for me (I come from the pre-internet age, if anyone can remember that!) And I really don't need to mess around with multiple platforms.

ThusI shall simply post here as I go along but all entries and exits will be submitted in progress to be actioned with standing market orders so everything will be verifiable.

Happy Xmas to you, starting live 2 January

Marc, check if https://www.fxblue.com/live/ can be used for your experimentation, eventually?

I think more people like you , will ensure it is really damn great place!

The only problem of being opened and fair at places like FF, is those inverse back engineering dildo loving little bastards...

Hi MoneyZilla,

Thanks for the suggestion, I've not heard of FXBlue but That I shall Have a look.

It's in fact very fitting you checked here as it's your trading competition challenge thread (very enjoyable!) , in addition to the spare time that I have around Xmas after quitting serious trading to the year, that pushed me over the edge to actually begin this experiment also, hopefully, demone to a modest degree that it is not fully 100% windbag talk, there's some genuinely profitable trading lurking in a dark corner somewhere.

I have to also thank you for your information:
The only problem of being opened and fair at places like FF, is these reverse rear engineering dildo adoring little bastards. .

Quite good and, regrettably, very correct! FortunatelyI was an institutional equity fund supervisor for several years before turning self-employed forex trader and so I am very used to just about everybody beating the crap out of me, fairly and otherwise, for my operation amounts. You can not please all of the people all of the time!

Happy Christmas and best wishes with your venture.

Hi,
This will be my final introductory article before trading starts in January.

I want to stress at the outset the belief that trading is fundamentally an exercise in probability. A trading advantage just means you have something which tilts the probabilities in your favour. If you have an audio edge, bet small and always and do not do anything stupid, i.e. let a reduction run away from you, then you'll triumph in the long term.

You can't be concerned unduly about the outcome of one trade; it is practically arbitrary despite all our high excellent analysis. You have to keep ploughing on, trade after trade using a real'rinse repeat' mentality and let the probability take care of itself. You can also now appreciate why you have to have confidence that your method does have a favorable edge. Here, the advantage is basically that we go with the flow, easier to swim with the current than it. And that's pretty much all there is to it; just about all of the rest is risk control.

However, the probabilistic nature of trading means you'll have to endure losing streaks. My personal record thus far is 11 successive winners and (separately) 15 winners from 16 trades. Being that bad takes actual talent. You can see why I risk 1% of this account per trade. If I haven't scared you off by now you're possibly either somewhat slow or simply not listening. In any event, it is your fault if you return in January so please no complaining to me when I post loser #10 on a streak. By then I'll probably be rooting for a new personal best in any circumstance.

With this happy thought, I want you all a joyous and peaceful Christmas!


Account Overview: Balance #10,000 ( 0.0%) No. Trades YTD 0

Hi,
Happy New Year !

I trust you've all had an excellent holiday break. Aside from my liver being needing urgent medical care I am good to begin trading within this 2018 Trading Account Experiment. The new trading account has been set up and can be live.

Article #1 in this thread gives you the backdrop for this folly, article #2 holds a overview of the trading egy to be employed here, and article #9 carries a small but significant insight into the real nature of trading.

As all my trading for the last eight years has been intraday about 5 minute charts and this experiment is on daily charts, necessarily I will be feeling my egy somewhat with all the ancient transactions here. So perhaps you shouldn't reach to your dealing button straight away though I will be taking all transactions live on this account. Allow my losses function as free learning, it is possible to always in due course subscribe in gratitude for my inevitable forthcoming Trading Fund Replenishment crowd funding exercise.

Pleasantries completed, on to business. The following three articles will set out my first analysis and current trading chances in turn for all the three markets being followed.

Account Overview: Balance #10,000 ( 0.0%) No. Trades YTD 0

Hi,
We begin with the price action analysis for the daily chart of AUD/USD:



I visit a downtrend that has been halted by a consolidation, followed with a false break to the downside which reversed, trapped some shorts, and led into the current uptrend.
Resistance around 7900 is likely to be tested if the uptrend is great. We are potential buyers with the flow if a different consolidation forms, is tested, and any reversal is seen to fail, with the first target of 7900 and a stop below the low of this consolidation.

NB The pattern of a consolidation - false fracture - sharp reversal, in my experience is a strong one: it is pretty obvious, it disturbs some traders the incorrect manner, provides a well defined logical stop and frequently contributes to a strong momentum breakout throughout the opposing side of the consolidation. You will find us trading that this pattern a lot as this thread progresses.

Instead , our current uptrend could itself reverse as a sucker rally into the bigger prior downtrend. We would then expect a test of this 7500 low and we'd look to combine the ride down at a suitable point.

Either way, please note we are awaiting the market to give us a lead and an adequate entry point, we are not seeking to force our forecast available on the market. It, not , is the 400 lbs gorilla here and it will do anything it wants.

So, a waiting game for today. Next article is EUR/USD analysis

Account overview: Balance #10,000 ( 0.0%) No. Trades YTD 0