Thread: DanUK Simple EUR/USD Trading Journal 2009

Since beginning this diary at the start of the year I have been asked by a few individuals to describe how I transaction, so here it goes:

I trade the trend. I learned to do so with assistance from two very useful nigeriaforextrading members - Johnedoe and Jacko. This is my take on it...

Step 1 - Identify The Trend

the very first issue is to recognize the major trend. I use a top down egy to analyse the trend. Weekly, Daily, 4 Hourly.

An uptrend can be identified by higher highs and higher lows. A downtrend can be identified by lower highs and lower lows. Trendlines drawn across the highs and the lows should also help show direction.

Step 2 - Enter At A Discounted Price

After I know what direction I Need to trade in, I seem to enter at a good price. In an uptrend I am looking for a dip to put in in. In a downtrend I am looking for a summit to put in in. I use support and resistance and fib amounts (if confluence is discovered ) to guide me.

See attached chart...

I only buy/sell at round numbers (end xx00 or occasionally xx50). I identify places to trade using a 1 hour chart. I am searching for price to make a u-turn as shown on the attached chart.

The possible commerce at 1.4900 is just what I look for #8211; a wonderful small retracement; rejected at 1.4850 and rear up (buy) through 1.4900 creating the u-turn. Of course, not all transactions are as nice looking as that, but you get the general idea!

Stick onto a 100 pip stop loss and move it up as price goes (I tend to move the stop as another round number will get hit, but you might use a trailing stop which moves pip by pip, as it goes).

If price goes I shall also utilize Jacko#8217;s Anti-Hedge egy, whereby we let price move 50 to 100 pips beyond our stop loss then re-enter at the point where we have stopped out.

Any questions please ask. This is a learning process for me also so helpful advice is also valued!

Regards,

Dan

Please be aware that none of those transactions posted are signs or advice. They're only here as a list of what I have done - not exactly what I recommend to do!

Sell EUR/USD @ 1.3300 (Cease loss moved to breakeven)

Sell GBP/USD @ 1.4800 (Cease loss currently moved to 1.4600)

Both positions Started on 13 January now closed:

EUR/USD closed @ 1.3300 (Breakeven)
GBP/USD closed @ 1.4600 ( 200)

I have resolved to re-enter the market! I am making a note here of my thinking at the time that I can reflect on it later (which could result in me saying exactly what the hell was I thinking!) After the transactions have performed. They aren't strictly in accore with my principles, so here is my rationale for why I went to this...

My last GBP/USD Short was discontinued out (in profit) at 1.4600 - price then climbed to 1.4700 and was promptly revoked, forming a very pleasant one hour trap pub. Daily prejudice is still short so I decided re-entry at 1.4600 would be a viable possibility.

My last EUR/USD Short was stopped out at breakeven at 1.3300 which was followed with a 1 hour bearish engulfing candle, I then allowed price to retrace a bit to 1.3250 and entered another market order.

Sell EUR/USD @ 1.3250 (Stop loss transferred to breakeven)

Sell GBP/USD @ 1.4600 (Stopped out at breakeven)

Yesterday's EUR/USD Short was stopped out today at 1.3150 to get 100 pips - not bad but I was hoping to get a little more of a movement out of it now! If my bias stays short then 1.3300 seems like the most likely loion to sell. At least that may allow some profit taking if it manages to drop to 1.3100 again.

Attempted to Short GBP/USD again at 1.4600 but no luck ! Price moved enough to get my stop to breakeven but did not make any gains now. It seems to be stuck at a tiny range today - I am thinking I may need to wait for it to get to 1.4700 or even 1.4800 before attempting again? But if it goes beyond that I might start favouring a long position.

I am getting concerned that I am starting to over-analyze my own entries! The beauty of the egy will maintain it's ease but I am starting to over-complie matters! Tomorrow I will try and set my entries based on the egy rules!

Well I'm continuing to wait for my next entrance. E/U made up it beyond 1.3200 but could not reach 1.3300 (not yet anyway!) And broke the tiny upward trendline which I had charted; therefore I'm in short at 1.3200 on the way back down (hopefully it'll keep moving down).

G/U has got me stuck at the moment though. Only beyond 1.4900 is that the 50% retracement of the most recent move down. I am thinking sell but I'm concerned that the tiny upward trend that began yesterday might have the capability to keep moving up - therefore I'm awaiting a indiion that price is slowly coming back downagain.

The difficulty that I have at this stage (for G/U) is that if the week ends beyond 4900 my bias will likely change to buy for next week. I will just need to sit and wait for a hint!

Current Spots:

EUR/USD Sell @ 1.3200 (Stopped outside for -100)

GBP/USD Pending Sell if price moves down and manages to secure a position below the current up trendline. Upward momentum lasted so I'm not trading G/U now (as it is now Friday afternoon - time to go home and prepare for the weekend!) .

I have completed trading for the week now. I am not happy about the current E/U and G/U movement right now so I've decided to call it a day and start the weekend early.

Second week went well - maybe not and last week but I certainly can't complain. I finished the week on a small down-note as I entered my final trade too early and took a loss, but it is not the end of the planet - I am up on the week and the month so far, so I am still delighted

This months closing count is...

EUR/USD 300
GBP/USD 100

Entire 400

Meaning January is currently 1200.

Hi Dan

Apart from the 100TSL and at times AH which method is it that you employ for your entries?

Hi Howard,

Over the past year I have been trying to trade according to Jacko's method. It's a very simple method but it's a bit too optional for me (I'm not knocking it - it is just not quite right for me personally ). So I decided to attempt to make the method a little simpler that's when I ran into a really useful member here atnigeriaforextradingcalled Johnedoe (I hope he does not mind me mentioning him). He has given me some insight into how he transactions and I've essentially adopted his entry method, although I've altered it slightly, just to match with my style of trading.

Basically I assume a bias for every trading day according to his 77 cross system, which you can check out within his 2009 Journal. My slight alteration is that I do not enter instantly, I wait for price to achieve a round number and enter afterward - the tricky part is determining whether to choose a round number over or under the day's opening price! In addition, I use a 100 pip TSL (as you mentioned) as this seems right for me.

I may also choose to stay out of this market if I feel price is continuing to move in the opposite way to the daily bias. For instance this Friday just passed I did not open a trade because I felt price could be moving greater (anticipating a move up to the 50% retrace area of 1.4900) before continuing the move back down. This is really where I might be compliing the system a little too much, because though this kept me out of getting struck on Friday, it could also keep me out of the start of a fantastic movement, which is really where this system makes the most pips!

Johnedoe's platform has been very successful in the past; however my alterations into his egy are not yet proven, hence why these transactions are currently demo only. Basically this way is very simple that's why I like it. I think overcompliing and over thinking things is not a fantastic idea, if you don't happen to be particularly talented at predicting the future!

I hope that helps to understand what I am doing here! If you have any additional questions please don#8217;hesitate to ask.

Regards,


Dan

Thanks Dan

Simplicity is king in this game I believe.

Are you trying tick by tick trailing (auto)? John is employing a stepped 100-pip TS upgrading at the end of every day.

50% Nominal is around 1.39, is it what you meant?