Analysis Current 3:04 PM CST

Tomorrow is really going to be akin to walking through a mine field all the way from the London session through New York. There are multiple economic announcements that may seriously transfer the market.

GBP has CPI y/y being published at 3:30 AM CST. EUR has got the German ZEW Economic Sentiment at 4:00 AM CST. The USD includes Core Retail Sales m/m, PPI m/m, and Retail Sales m/m being published at 7:30 AM CST and to top it all off, the icing on the cake is Fed Chairman Bernake's testimony at 9:00 AM CST.

I wouldn't underestimate the market moving potential of a single event recorded above. They all have the potential to proceed to the market if there aren't any openings. SURPRISE? In Forex? No way man!

Today there was a movement down to the 61.8% retracement of the last major move on the hourly chart. Price reversed there and has ended up not significantly far away from where it left off on Friday. More or less, I guessed price wouldn't accomplish anything significant prior to the major news releases in the middle of the week. I'm still awaiting a news alyst to bring us to new highs or slam us down where we came from.

It can clearly be seen on the daily chart that we popped up above the top ascending trend line that was just below 1.6000 when price gapped on Sunday afternoon.

We still have a 21/55 cross to the upside on the hourly chart, price is still above ithowever the EMA is starting to flatten out that is much weaker than an EMA crying down or up. The 1hr 5/8 is threatening to cross down right above the 21. MACD tried to cross to the upside and stochastic is overbought and only starting to cross down. We are overall still above the 200 EMA.

1.5866 is still support to the downside, and of course the 1.6000 level still looms above us. If we can break 1.6000 which is going to be a new all time (at least as far back as my charts go), and will be in uncharted territory. 1.5800 will be another level after 1.5866 on down the road.

I would submit that the 21 EMA has already lost control of price on the hourly chart and the sole hope between the 200 will be the 55 that does not usually put up much of a struggle for very long. Today the bounce off of that 61.8% level can be thought of a bounce off of their hourly 55 as well.

The actual question this week is going to be that way are the fundamentals likely to take us? What will the Fed state that could affect the Dollar? What about the rest of the news releases? All of this will play a major factor this week. It could be hard to find great technical motions everywhere and Wednesday. Thursday and Friday have the potential to be big days even though in my own opinion.

Technically, I have a downward bias; however, it might be crazy to attempt to pick a direction here at this crucial decision stage with all of these potentially market moving releases coming up. My official direction is,”Wait and see” again.


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