Daily EUR/USD Analysis with GBLilleyUSMC

[livoke]

Analysis Current 3:04 PM CST

Tomorrow is really going to be akin to walking through a mine field all the way from the London session through New York. There are multiple economic announcements that may seriously transfer the market.

GBP has CPI y/y being published at 3:30 AM CST. EUR has got the German ZEW Economic Sentiment at 4:00 AM CST. The USD includes Core Retail Sales m/m, PPI m/m, and Retail Sales m/m being published at 7:30 AM CST and to top it all off, the icing on the cake is Fed Chairman Bernake's testimony at 9:00 AM CST.

I wouldn't underestimate the market moving potential of a single event recorded above. They all have the potential to proceed to the market if there aren't any openings. SURPRISE? In Forex? No way man!

Today there was a movement down to the 61.8% retracement of the last major move on the hourly chart. Price reversed there and has ended up not significantly far away from where it left off on Friday. More or less, I guessed price wouldn't accomplish anything significant prior to the major news releases in the middle of the week. I'm still awaiting a news alyst to bring us to new highs or slam us down where we came from.

It can clearly be seen on the daily chart that we popped up above the top ascending trend line that was just below 1.6000 when price gapped on Sunday afternoon.

We still have a 21/55 cross to the upside on the hourly chart, price is still above ithowever the EMA is starting to flatten out that is much weaker than an EMA crying down or up. The 1hr 5/8 is threatening to cross down right above the 21. MACD tried to cross to the upside and stochastic is overbought and only starting to cross down. We are overall still above the 200 EMA.

1.5866 is still support to the downside, and of course the 1.6000 level still looms above us. If we can break 1.6000 which is going to be a new all time (at least as far back as my charts go), and will be in uncharted territory. 1.5800 will be another level after 1.5866 on down the road.

I would submit that the 21 EMA has already lost control of price on the hourly chart and the sole hope between the 200 will be the 55 that does not usually put up much of a struggle for very long. Today the bounce off of that 61.8% level can be thought of a bounce off of their hourly 55 as well.

The actual question this week is going to be that way are the fundamentals likely to take us? What will the Fed state that could affect the Dollar? What about the rest of the news releases? All of this will play a major factor this week. It could be hard to find great technical motions everywhere and Wednesday. Thursday and Friday have the potential to be big days even though in my own opinion.

Technically, I have a downward bias; however, it might be crazy to attempt to pick a direction here at this crucial decision stage with all of these potentially market moving releases coming up. My official direction is,”Wait and see” again.


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[livoke]

CTGUY, Thanks so much for your answer. Not certain what that connection is supposed to perform though. I appreciate you looking at my website!


Here's my analysis for today

Analysis Current 4:09 PM CST

Tomorrow we shall finally have a London session that is mild on news, so we could have some fantastic technical moves. Throughout the New York session, Construction Permits for the USD will probably be released at 7:30 AM Central Standard Time.

Economic statements provided by: https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/...er-indior.html

It resembles the head and shoulders pattern I discussed yesterday has formed up today, and it's a beaut! Its one of the most anatomically correct HS patterns I have seen in a while. On the other hand, the very top of the right shoulder topped 10 pips under where I predicted. We bottomed today at 1.5800 that is an important plogical level. I would expect some form of retracement here in this level, most likely somewhere between 1.5873 and 1.5856. We could get this during an Asian fade, then earn a continuation back to the downside where I would be alert to get a double bottom at 1.5800. As usual if we split the 1.5800 level, I will be looking for a break then retest of the level.

Now we initiated a 21/55 cross to the downside on the hourly rate. I would say that this is very significant. Currently, the 5/8 remains pointed down and has broken the 200 EMA. Bollinger bands are still wide open regardless of the time of day. MACD remains pointing down and stochastics is secured in oversold territory. Generally, if we're trending in a strong movement, I will look more in MACD due to stochastics tendency to lock beneath the trading zone amounts throughout major tendencies.

If we are able to break the 1.5800 amount, the next area of support is going to be 1.5774 that is the 61.8% retracement level of this last major swing up, then 15738 that has been respected as valid SR in the past. If we return up, we will have to break back through the 1.5860 level, then the dynamic resistance given by the cover of the trend line we had been in before the top of the HS formed up should provide resistance.

On the hourly chart, we're basically in a ride the 5 scenario (where price remains above or under the 5 ema, this shows a solid move.) Nevertheless the 5/8 is beginning to lose angle and separation. It may cross back up briefly while we admire this 1.5800 level. Since we just had a fresh cross of this 21/55 EMAs I would not be surprised at all to determine price return to check in using all the 21 EMA and make sure its still there before going back down.

We broke the weekly central pivot point today that's at 1.5830. If price can stay under this level that will be bearish according to pivot stage concept.

Everything is pretty much telling me short on this pair today. However I really do believe that we're in to get a retracement to this 1.5850 - 1.5870 region. I will be watching 1.5800 closely for a bounce or split and retest with continuation to the downside.

[livoke]

Economic Releases:
News for Seems extremely light on nigeriaforextrading. There are just two releases pulling up at this time that show in the orange. The only one that I think may bring us trouble would be the month month German manufacturers price index being released at 1:00 AM CST.

Long term analysis:
we've implemented exactly what I would count as a double top on the daily chart. And the 5/8 is trying its best to cross here. The place that this pair has double topped is important since it's more or less the 161.8 percent Fibonacci extension of the move up from June of 2001 to January of 2005. Price then hit a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. The appropriate goal for a 38.2percent fib is the 161.8% extension which lies more or less right around the 1.6000 level.

Price appears to have only increased around the 1.5800 degree that's quite close to the 50% retracement level from the move upwards from 7/7/08 to 7/15/08. Price action doesn't appear interested in bouncing here. It looks more like it might hang for a bit before dropping down again.

Hourly Indiors:
We still have our 21/55 and 5/8 crosses to the drawback. Price also seemed to be responding to the 200 EMA now that's around 1.5829. Our hourly MACD has become more or less just playing around today. I would not trust it for almost any leadership when it's behaving like this, it's basically braiding. (Braiding is where two EMAs cross and recross continually and this shows lack of market leadership.) Braiding is a good indior not to exchange.

Support and Resistance levels:
Now we've been ranging between 1.5809 and 1.5894. There is ascending lively resistance currently at 1.5790 then at 1.5733 that should offer support to the drawback. Resistance should be discovered in 1.5937 then 1.6000 to the upside. So there are two or three dynamic levels that I would like to see us break through until we could have a severe move to the downside. It may take us a few days to get through these levels.

Moving Average Control:
Its simple to find that we are in a consolidation period when you begin to search for an EMA that truly has management of price and can't find one before you reach the Weekly chart. The Weekly 21 EMA is the only EMA on the hourly chart or above that's clear control over price. It is loed in 1.5524, so that will be an area to see when we get there.

Total bias:
My overall bias on this pair is brief; however, I think that we still have some severe levels to compete on the way down until we could consider this pair in a downtrend.

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[livoke]

Well, it was a very fine down day indeed was not it? It is surely the way things were pointed. I really don't think there was anybody out there really surprised by this drop at all. In the event that you were surprised, look over yesterdays post and review what was talked about.

Tomorrow it appears that we'll be mild on London news. New York will have the ADP Non-Farm Employment shift for us at 7:15 AM CST. Any surprising data here could certainly move the market but I would not really look for it to be a crystal ball to what Non-Farm Payrolls will hold on Friday.

Guess what we struck today folks?!?! The Weekly 21 EMA I have been talking about for about a week now, we've arrived. The million dollar question is,”Can we split it?” Well, the right answer is,”I really don't understand.” We always assume that assistance and resistance will maintain until it is proven broken. However, lets break down what we've got here. We've got a very clear top at the 1.6000 degree that price just refused to break. We have MACD from the negative and gaining angle and rest on the weekly chart. In addition, we have slight MACD divergence on the Weekly chart, as well as slight divergence on a weekly chart is quite important. So I think if we are going to break the 21, this is the most likely time for us to do it.

On analysis of the hourly chart, to day pretty much resembles a vertical red line. What exactly do we do? The ideal thing to do is wait for some form of retracement then verifiion of a continuation. Blindly shorting here could get ugly when we've got some severe sellers guilt. But with the power of the move down we had today, I would not be surprised when we do not observe a Class A retracement throughout the Asian session. We may just see some sideways action or a very slight retracement using a continuation to the downside tomorrow.

My overall bias for tomorrow has to be brief; BUT, together with us at the weekly 21, I will be cautious. We may observe some that range or chop attempting to break a massive amount like that so don't be surprised. Or we could just burst down. No matter what you do, wait for verifiion, follow your own system, not price chase rather than break your own rules.

[Commecaminll1849]

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