DIY Trading - An Art of Probability
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Thread: DIY Trading - An Art of Probability

  1. #1
    This is a demo Journal of my updated Do It Yourself Trading - An Art of Probability#8221; egy. An excessive amount of system and indiors out there, I tried, but failed. So I will do it my way!!

    Trading Components:

    Chart: Candlestick (need only 1 candlestick to concentrate )
    Timeframe: Daily
    Indiors: Not
    Entrance: 3:00 am to 5:00 am (time I usually wake up from bed)
    Exit: 5:00 pm to 5:00 am (before punching from work) or (before bedtime) or (before entry time the next trading day) (you have to shut all open position prior to opening a new one)
    Stop Loss: None
    Free margin amount: 400 percent to 300% (sufficient to competition drawdown volatility of the day)

    The Strategy:
    Entry Rule 1. Input place in the path of the final candle of the daily chart. (simple as that)
    2. ) Repeat rule no. 1 for the remaining pairs until loose margin reached to 400%-300%. (the bigger the better)
    3. Same lot dimensions

    Exit Rule 1. Simply follow depart element regardless of result (either or - ). (just like that)

    It#8217;s like a daily routine. Open transactions once you wake up and shut at bedtime.

    This really is a zero sum game. A game of chance. The egy#8217;s success depends on the no. Of daily winning trades than the losing one. The odds of getting more W than L is to have more entries in various pairs, proper lot sizing will do the trick. I will post no chart, only daily results, as I rely mainly to one candlestick. Goal is 50K from 1K, before bringing this upgraded egy to live. (I have a running live account based on this egy but with different trading components ). Again, this can be more on probability and balancing market motion. The world is very stressful. Why complie things? So wish me luck.

  2. #2
    Very interesting concept Pxchange and Thank you for sharing. Congrats on the outcomes. Best, Josh

  3. #3

  4. #4
    Your time zone is not clear. Your own 3am and 5am and 5pm, what is that London local time, all three of them. Thanks and
    Regards

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Your time zone is not clear. Your own 3am and 5am and 5pm, what's that London local time, all three of them. Thanks and Regards
    thanks to the subs. Very good question, your correct the London time of it. Mostly but not all the time the trend of the day develops in London time and later confirmed during NY time that's also a good starting point for exit.

  6. #6
    18 days functionality analysis tracking for opportunities market equilibrium movement (info from fxblue):

    1. Hours of day no. Of trades - 83% of entrance position performed @ 1am to 4am (GMT 3 fxblue)
    2. Length of transactions - 1 day
    3. no. Of trades per day - nearly equal except for friday (past friday still available )
    4. Direction of transactions - nearly equal (very important to equilibrium market movement)

    5. Pips daily - range (positive)
    6. Spread of return daily - highest negative spread is -10% daily 3
    7. Balance drawdown - 1st week attained -50%
    8. Risk of ruin - odds of losing half is 54%
    9. Symbol net profit - 7 negative from 29 symbol

    Conclusion:
    Risk of ruin = HIGH
    Probability of winning = HIGH
    Risk Reward Ratio = 4.10









  7. #7
    Will the risk remain the sasme or will it be if you've som winners? Or are you going to adjust your position size so ou almost have this risk of destroy ?

    Best regards

  8. #8
    Why not shut your open positions on Friday afternoon (February 16th)...?

    Also, by reducing the lot size (exposure) the Risk of Ruin may be lowered, and the egy might still achieve a nice size steady profit.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Will the risk stay the sasme or is it if you've som winners? Or are you going to correct your position size so ou almost always possess this risk of destroy etc? Best regards
    it'll be if I got more sequential W than L.the first 10 trading days drawdown are enormous coz of not even lot sizes inducing negative overall despite more winners. This is the portion of the I'm monitoring and how to reduce risk, so far positioning with same lot size functions for now. .

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Why have not you closed your open positions on Friday afternoon (February 16th)...? Additionally, by reducing the lot size (vulnerability ) the Risk of Ruin may be lowered, and the egy might still achieve a decent size stable profit.
    Really still inside my depart elements, I must admit I am contemplating of not closing it due to 1 place the btcusd. So much it turns out great. Will shut it when market resumed. Thank you for the input regarding RR

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