Your case is from book: spread + forward points + rate = initial difference. There is no mystery, only basic financial theory.
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Your case is from book: spread + forward points + rate = initial difference. There is no mystery, only basic financial theory.
It's funny that you've noticed that, many don't even notice, it's a good sign that you pay attention to the details.
I went through the same thing. I solved it by reading about implicit forward rates. Once you understand that, it all fits.
Does your platform allow you to see forward points? If you don’t see it clearly, it’s like operating blindfolded.
Notice that if the broker uses forward rates not market rates but own, the differences can be even greater.
In the end the important thing is that on the expiration date converge. The rest are technical settings and spreads.
I think you're messing with something pretty standard, check it out with a forward calculator.
That kind of mismatch is used in many arbitration strategies. If you understand why it happens, you can take advantage of it.
What happens is that in forwards there is a hidden financial cost, and if you don't see it clearly, you'll get a scare with the P/L.
Forwards are complex contracts, even if they seem simple. The P/L is not calculated the same as in spot, so you see that difference.