Thread: Trade the Curve

Originally Posted by ;

Mr. DRT,

Is ADV working just enjoy the Longest Line - 1.5462 we had at the beginning of the month or maybe not? If I were incorrect, my guessing correct me.


Thank you and bless,
Trader8686

Yes. Except that it is a projected maximum line based in my calculation. Think of it as a premier line based on months of data instead of only the current month.

And please call me DRT. Then I could be your grandfather where and unless you are younger than 21 ase it is okay.

The Euro came just a few points shy of this 1.5820 amount early in the European session and was met with some heavy distribution which delivered it all of the way back to the ADV degree of 5717. We finished the day just above this amount. It is very important to comprehend the significance of this amount. The upcoming major move will come out of here. Either up or down and if you are position trader like me then now is an perfect time to position for the leg. We might spend time creating value remain on the side of the transfer and at this level be patient.

I continue to hold longs until proven wrong. New long positions can be established as the market is giving you the 5717 degree. Goal 5820. Whether this amount breaks, target 5923.

When we begin to construct value below the ADV degree of 5717, I'd depart my long positions and await the market to give me 5717 and put up shorts down to 5566.
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DRT, you are the man!!!!!

You overlooked by 1 pip the jpy. It's settled back around 104. Are we building to get a move up???

Originally Posted by ;

Ok, I just did another test in Excel and I'm not receiving the exact same value as you're for the Longest Line.

I exported 60 minute period information from Metatrader into csv, opened the file in excel, chosen from 2008.05.01 into 2008.05.12 such as, applied the manner function on the period and got 1.5403

Again, the manner is the value that occurs the most frequently in a data set.

So in my test, 1.5403 is the most common value at which eurousd traded throughout this month, with 6 occurrences, the initial 4 to the 8th of this month, and the rest of two on the 9th of this month.

I applied the manner function on the close prices for every 60 minute period.

What's? What am I translating incorrect?

1.5462 only has two occurrences up to now, on the 9th of this month.

That's not how profiles have been calculated. You have to count every worth that bar passes through. This done with 30m pubs. For instance a bar that spans from 1.5000 into 1.5050 would need you add 1.5000, 1.5001, 1.5002 etc all the way to 1.5050 into the mix. THEN you calculate the mode. It's not only prices but every pip between the lows and highs. The purpose is to add a data point for every single price the market trades at. The close is merely one price daily. If you just use it you lose of the power of this procedure.

This is why you've had a lot of trouble getting the same values.

DRT,

up to now, my observation for EURUSD is that the price (1.5745 now) probably won't go below 5717, and will continue building values above it. A prejudice of bullish is mine. Correct me or modify my observation, if you can. Thanks.


Trader8686

DRT,


Thank You for the Fantastic week I will surely enjoy this long weekend thanks for you and your PD Curve. Look forward to hearing from you next week.

DRT,

Thank You for this thread. You're doing a excellent job. Keep the fantastic work up.

TG

Okay, let's take a peek at where we are using this pair. We invested a lot of time building worth between Value Area [-2] and Value Area [-1]. Our monthly longest line stays down at 1.5465. Notice what happened here, traders pushed price in the directions until eventually it was decided that the EURUSD was undervalued and price started to expand upward. The French Finance Manager may believe the EURO is overvalued by 20% but the market doesn't agree (at this point). After we expanded up through the level we all call ADV (Flexible Dynamic Value) we have begun to build value in the Zone between ADV and Value Area [ 1]. We have not yet reached the best at 5820 and this tells me that their is major distribution up at this area. No real surprise so far.

Late last week, traders attempted to push back the value under the ADV, but the demand held and Friday we pushed again attempting to create new highs. So we are right near the top of the Value Area [ 1]. So volume may be extremely light from North America tommorrow we've got a US holiday.

The question is....will we continue to construct value and develop this current zone or push to test the next zone. The trick here is to get ready for the fact that we may trade back down to 5717. I do not know the solution. I do believe we have not completely tested the cap of the value area yet. I understand we're above ADV so that I remain bullish for a move up.

A Monday, using a US holiday may prefer range trading. On the flip side, these times of lighter volume are known for conducting stop levels and you can bet that there are stops above the monthly highs.

Bottom line is I remain long until proven wrong, if we do examine the upside and settle back in Value Area [ 1] under 5820 then aggressive traders can set shorts back down to 5717. I am not willing to place shorts only yet until we examine the top.

Any move above 5820 (and worth construction) signals a move on up to 5923 could be in the cards. We'll need to become above the 5865 degree.

Any move and worth construct below 5717 and that I will cover my longs.

LONG TERM NOTE: If you are still follow my trading, you'll observe that I make comments like the upcoming major move will come from ADV. These ADV levels are extremely significant and as I have mentioned, they are DYNAMIC which means they'll change every few months as the value dictates. Although this is not important to some of you, it is to me. I see a long term construction of the EURO heading to 1.65 and which point it may begin to weaken. I feel that this specific ADV degree of 5717 will set the stage for this to happen. So I am watching it very carefully. Not that significant if you are a shorter term trader at this point, but it will tell me that the leadership is upward and that I expect new all time highs if this level holds as we move ahead.

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Thank you for the post. I look for your analysis. It assists me. Please also keep on submitting to your USD/JPY pair.

Recall that we captured roughly 250 points in this pair by range trading the levels involving ADV of 102.79 along with the Value Area [ 1]. Let us review where we are going to the month's end. We are holding over ADV at this time and we should remain bullish until (if) we build value under 102.79. The value area above ADV is rather well developed now. I guess we may try a push under 102.79 to test the waters but that's yet to be confirmed.

We are still attempting to range down to the 102.79 level at ADV and if you're short from 104.39 then stay short and cover at 102.79. Watch this level closely as our next major directional move will come from here. If we proceed below 102.79 and assemble value then we will look to prepare shorts and target the 101.75 level.

In case 102.79 holds, we can have an extremely strong move up in the sessions beforehand. To get a better grip on this pair, we will need to see another evaluation of ADV at 102.79 and see if this level holds. So we may want to stand apart until there is a direction indied prior to establishing our next trades Monday's session in North America will probably be quite light.


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Here is your 60M opinion for reference


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