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Thread: AUDUSD Trading Pit

  1. #21
    If not amounts I will be quite interested to find out what happens
    0.7580
    0.7450

    GL

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Hello everybody is that a bear trap? GL
    FOMC put its tone to 2 rate rise this year.

    Macquarie is telling us 80cents within a quarter and then an AUD downturn.
    Http://www.smh.com.au/business/marke...17-gnlopx.html

    What else does Fed have in this round of currency battle? Is RBA going say something for Australia's economic shift to tourism industry?

    Nevertheless AUD closed yesterday over past high....

    Which are the real drivers to exchange rates nowadays?

    Http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR
    btw, does anybody know a greater public connection for US Dollar Index SPOT live chart?

    Many thanks and Decent luck all : )

  3. #23

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Hello Everyone is that a bear trap? GL
    my view
    it could be trap for the buy on aud better out and wait to where it heads , sell trap well I figure what goes up has to come down for the retrace

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote my opinion it might be snare for your buy on aud better outside and wait patiently for where it heads , sell snare well I figure what goes up has to come down for your retrace
    If you use a stop loss its no snare

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote Hi Tashkent I am bearish on AU fundamentally Australia and Aussie dollar are in risk with commodity price drop.China Japan slowing down.Don't see far up from here unless something profound alterations. Unemployment numbers printed today aren't accurate reflection of market and it's much greater. Could be one of these nice drops following all retails label their longs getting big bull trap. Regards
    Hi ,
    I am also thinking the exact same. China and Japan are the 2 major trading partners (combined around 50 percent of total australian exports). It is just matter of time once the troubles these 2 countries are having will influence their major partners or countries that are economically interconnected. One of those things to watch today is commodity prices, particularly metals.
    From tech point of view the up trend appears strong and healthy today. Bull was almost brought to its knees but fomc spared the day and I believe there is nothing could block the bull until a significant bearish event. We're in autopilot mode currently.

  7. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote Hello , I am also thinking the same. China and Japan are the two major trading partners (united around 50% of total australian exports). It is just matter of time once the troubles these two nations are having will affect their major partners or nations that are economically interconnected. One of those things to watch now is commodity prices, particularly metals. From tech point of view the up trend looks strong and healthy now. Bull was brought to its knees but fomc spared the day and now I believe there's nothing could stop the bull...
    GM T
    I propose utilizing my pivot.Great tool showing key zones 61 78 100 R/S from weekly pivot
    Notice rejection by 78R
    Most traders are unaware of 78.6Fib which is square root of 618. Scott Carney a harmonic master detected this.
    regards

    https://www.nigeriaforextrading.com/...0807086961.mq4

  8. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    potential area to initiate brief trade in AU is about MR3 on H4 chart. This transaction would have to be more confirmed/timed using brent/copper price reversal, currently commods are still trading greater, consequently AU still got steam to drive farther, nevertheless rally is overextended big-time and can fall any time. image
    generally agree but not certain if we are trading around the large.
    Brief on many aud pairs.



  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote GM T I suggest using my pivot.Great tool showing crucial zones 61 78 100 R/S from weekly Notice rejection by 78R Most traders are unaware of 78.6Fib that's square root of 618. This was detected by Scott Carney a master. Regards image file
    Thanks , pivots look fairly accurate. Sadly I use the most base platform and can not apply the connected right now, but I am certain others will produce a use of this. I will save it

  10. #30
    I have been doing a bit of research into the upswing in the iron ore price, which has grown appx. 29% this year, also is a major contributor to Australia's economy, and other members here have noticed that the AUD/USD price has a close correlation to it. I have discovered quite a few articles printed in the last few weeks, and will attach links here to three. The overall consensus is that the rise is expected to be very short term, also is due to the simple fact that there is currently a dip in China's housing market, which is predicted to last during the first half of this year, and that is fantastic for the cement and steel businesses there. Following is a quote from 1 article While the current rally in the iron ore prices and has been partially brought on by speculative activity in the futures market, the pickup in China's housing market and Beijing's more supportive economic policy can also be seen as a variable.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/real-estate/resid...#ixzz43IPbTat5
    Follow us : http://ec.tynt.com/b/rw?id=cCUjAS_EC...inancialReview | http://ec.tynt.com/b/rf?id=cCUjAS_EC...inancialreview

    Here's a quote from another The problem is the fundamentals for the iron ore market remain horrible. Through time, short term Chinese stimulation attempts have had a big impact on the iron ore price. But after the stimulation wears off, the price fades.

    Another variable regarded as contributing to the growth in the AUD is that the simple fact that Australia's interest rate construction (currently 2%) looks good compared to the adverse rates in Japan and Europe, so there is currently an inflow of cash. And no doubt Glen Stevens has noticed that fact and will factor it into deliberations about future interest rate moves.

    Also, the other metals have risen sharply this year, however as with iron ore, there is still too much supply, and a lot of the rise appears to be speculative. Shares in certain large mining companies such as Anglo, Glencore and Freeport (maybe not RIO or BHP) have experienced rises of as much as 60-80% up to now THIS YEAR. These climbs in metal prices and mining companie's share prices look good on the outside to Australia, so much of it's income comes from the gas and mining sectors.

    But the majority of the metals are still in oversupply, such as iron ore. And gas prices are a manifestation of the oil business, which is in oversupply, but due to current optimism of future supply reductions, they're rising. So that the growth in prices is likely to be short term, as is the growth in the share prices of their mining companies and oil companies.

    In summary, until Australia drops interest rates (and also the increasing dollar is currently exerting pressure for the Fed to do exactly that) and until commodity prices once more reflect true supply and demand requirements, we have a rising Aussie dollar. However, the foundation of that rise is sand. As so many members here have noticed, the rise does not reflect fundamentals. But if you link to those links I have provided here, then you'll find a better picture of why we have a short-medium term rise, which in my opinion is putting us up for a much bigger fall.

    But short term the AUD/USD tendency is up, so I'll buy the dips, but will pile on the shorts once the lows are removed.

    http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/iro...ip/2016/03/07/

    http://www.mining.com/march-mining-m...-prices-surge/

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