Thread: TA self fullfilled prophecies... what a joke.

Do fibs do the job?

Can MAs work?

Can Andrew's pitchforks work?

So, the point of the thread is straightforward: what would it take to DISPROVE randomness.... Thus giving the trader a real benefit using fibs, MAs, round amounts, pitchforks, fancy MACD interpretations, stochastics, etc.. Quite simply it would want a market NOT OF RANDOMNESS, however of repeating patterns.

But what's reality? It's That NO TWO YEARS ARE EVER ALIKE. The charts are never repeating. History does not repeat itself, therefore price is arbitrary.... And consequently TA.

An example comes to mind.... The GBPJPY BB of kharvell egy. It backtested for many thousand pips in numerous years.... The thread was buzzing.... People were investing it ! Crash and burn. Much like Heiken I Smoothed. Etc..

Now please do not clutter the thread with screen captures of where TA works, since I will just need to post images where it does not.

And do not tell us how your are a prosperous discretionary trader (which TA is a instrument ) because that usually means you are simply imagining.... And anybody can get blessed doing that.

Folks lose because of poor systems and emotions that are poor. I feel great... let er run aint gonna cut it
The market zeroes' out along with a tech system only goes so far. The buyers or the sellers stop/increas along with the market turns.

Another example of feelings is stressing about whether TA doesn't or functions - or for that matter whether FA functions or not or astrology or whatever.

No matter how many times it's been stated it requires repeating that how one manages their transactions is much more important than what they use to enter/exit.

Originally Posted by ;

HKMA thread? What does that stand for?

I have yet to see rabid or anyone else lay out any actual egy for deriving probabilities. It is the identical crap science debate that gambling is odds driven. I'd like to learn how you measure sentiment. How do you factor in market efficiency (the lack of time required for the market to equilize to fair market value) These are the REAL questions....

HKMA = Hong Kong Monitary Authority. I set up a thread before time discribing the collection boundaries that the HKMA permits their currency to trade within. I placed a trade at the banks set boundaries and it held before returning up toward the center of the range. It wasn't arbitrary at all, about the HKMA website they state in plain and simple terms they wont let it proceed beyond a certain point. It got it did actually go another way, and there, I placed a transaction. The most recent time it hit the boundaries, currently there, the jump is again holding... however, due to interest rates I cant hold onto the transaction. That isn't arbitrary conditional to market.

AgainI agree with nearly all you say... however, there are two issues with your relentlessness. The first being is that there are minutes of nonrandomness you dont pay attention to. The second is that you seem to be under the assumption that without a fantastic series (I suppose you'd call it) of luck, you wont get it at the markets. You might not become a millionaire without this luck, but with direction of a outlook that is productive, you can make consistent money.

On a personal note, why do you care about other peoples ongoings so much? I feel their needing to prove what they do and those that earn money dont give a poop about people is actually real or not based on arbitrary luck.

Originally Posted by ;

It's not random after it's quantified into probabilities. Can we move on to more important things? Like this past week shorting the GBPJPY.

How's that working out for you?

Originally Posted by ;

What is that working out for you?

Great.

This subject (efficiently #8220;Are markets random? #8221;-RRB- has been addressed many times. I posted my thoughts here.

What intrigues me is the broad diversity of opinions at FF....

-- On the 1 hand, we have those who believe that it#8217;s potential to succeed simply by accepting trades whose R-value gt; 1 (i.e. ensuring losses are smaller than wins), and applying the 2 percent (or whatever) principle, all with discipline. (My thoughts on this here).

-- On the flip side, we've got folk saying that with the very best possible analysis; suitably selected setups; optimal entries, trade management and/or R-values; MM past the 2% rule; and perfect discipline, it#8217;s hopeless, or extremely hard, to be extended term profitable.

I presume that the truth lies somewhere between both of these extremes.

The Truth Is Out There - X Files And yes its tru which not everybody is able to be a trader and that many of people fail at this stylish or bussines gambling with clues, whatever. The is the thing that keeps us going. The question is how many fromnigeriaforextradingare profitable? I guess its 5% but everybody pretend to be earning hundreds of pips daily out. Thats bullshit, pardon.

Originally Posted by ;

This subject (efficiently #8220;Are markets arbitrary? #8221;-RRB- has been addressed many times. A while back I posted my thoughts here.

What intrigues me is the broad array of opinions at FF....

-- On the one hand, we have people who think that it#8217;s possible to be successful by simply accepting trades whose R-value gt; 1 (i.e. ensuring losses are smaller than wins), and employing the 2% (or whatever) principle, all with discipline. (My thoughts on this here)....

Tdion,

I was only wondering, In your opinion, what would it require for you to provide a method or system a Tdion stamp of aproval?

Possitive results for Xyears?
The cause of the price movement that ends in profit and can be exploited?
Being able to Automate the process so Human error is Illiminated?

Im asking because Im genuinely Interested what it might require for a method/system to be acceped as profitable by you personally.

Enjoy the threads and posts, keep it real!

Leon

Well, so far as I'm concerned, Currency Market is a vehicle that has the potential to pay out huge dividends.

I am hopeful that there's some under-pinning reason for those transactions I set to be predictive often than not, although I can not understand the reason.

I feel that any system based on charts can shit the bed at any point without warning.... Go to a tailspin that is disasterous and shed 50 transactions in a row, and leave you penniless.


So the solution is, in spite of a 1000 trade backtest over ten years, the markets underlying supply/demand could change on a dime. Case in point: 2008 EURUSD following the banks fell.

The reason why I bring up EURUSD is that it's my bread and butter. It's what I focus of my attention on. And for it to abruptly change attribute is enough for me that no charting platform may be considered stable.