Quote Originally Posted by ;
Absolutely. The market is random, except if it's not. Understanding when those chances will appear is the complete definition of edge.
I enjoy this.

Allow me to breifly explain my faith.

In a generalized perspective, I think that the markets are not random, but it can often appear they are. Please follow my logic. Every time price moves down or up by one point, then a person just engaged in the market for a reason. Reason opposes randomness, and as such discounts it. To anybody who had been informed of who determined the market to move that 1 pip, or better yet WHY they entered the market, the move was reasoned, not random. However, this exact same motion may be perceived as random by anybody who does not understand why price only acted as it did. A person a million miles away watched price go up 1 pip, had no idea why, and says, The markets are somewhat random. The difference between the two observations is advice, or understanding. Therefore, randomness can be perceived via unawareness, ingnorance, or from any other means lack of knowledge.

So, my opinion is that markets are random if you do not understand why price is behaving exactly the way it is. This concept applies to other areas too, take baseball such as. If I'd been exposed to the sport, never played with it or watched it, and has been taken to a match, I might create an assumption that the players are behaving out of randomness. To me it would look like they are only throwing the ball for no reason, running in circles, and people are clapping all of the time. I would not be in a position to make any predictions about future behavior of the players currently. If, however, a person next to me explained the principles of the match and why people were behaving as they were, then it would make much more sense to me and no longer be random. It could be reasoned, and I really could make assumptions on what players will do next, based on this rationale.

So, to reevaluate the market, it's my view you have to understand why price is shing, otherwise you are trading randomness. Might it be possible to understand why every pip moves how it does? Of course not. But in the event that you're able to understand even 1 reason why price will probably act a certain way at a specific point or at a specific time, then you can profit from this, as it's no longer considered random.