Statistical Probability Trading With Price Action
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Thread: Statistical Probability Trading With Price Action

  1. #1
    Since January of 2006 the Gbp/Usd has moved between 170 and 179 pips 12 times counting last Friday. Two of the eleven occasions the day following such a move it transferred 234 pips and 257 pips. The other nine days following such a move as past Friday it had a range of 72 to 159 pips together with the average of the nine days being 104 pips. Of those nine days it just reached the mathematical R1 or S1 twice. It currently has a low of 1.9923 and the high of 1.9968 using a high low range of 45 pips. If it stays with in the 104 pip day after range it would hit 2.0027 on the upper side and 1.9864 on the bottom side. The very first day of the week on the average has a below average trading day. The Gbp/Usd for 2007 has a daily average range of 122 pips compared to 128 pips exactly the same period this past year. For 2006 the Gbp/Usd ended up using a 134 pip daily range average.

  2. #2
    Weekly range of motion for Your GbpUsd. Much like all currencies the previous 10 months or so the (RM) on a weekly and daily basis has gone up.

  3. #3
    2006 Daily Range For Eur/Jpy was 93 pips
    2006 Daily Range For Eur/Jpy for this time last year was 103 pips
    2007 Daily Range For Eur/Jpy to date is 127 pips
    2007 5 Day Daily Range For Eur/Jpy is 117 Pips
    2007 10 Day Daily Range For Eur/Jpy is 116 pips
    2007 20 Day Daily Range For Eur/Jpy is 104 pips
    2007 55 Day Daily Range For Eur/Jpy is 133 pips

  4. #4
    The last 346 trading days since Jan. 1 2006 the GbpUsd has retraced to with in 7 pips of the following fib levels after the days low and high are established. This retracement either occurs the same day or within the next trading day.
    23.6 fib 337 occasions or 97.4% of the period
    38,2 fib 303 occasions or 87.6% of the time (it currently has retraced with in 7 pips of the level prior to the close of the day)
    50.0 fib 269 occasions or 77.7% of the period
    61.8 fib 225 occasions or 65% of this time.

  5. #5
    Support and resistance where price action stalled or failed to pentetrate.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Since January of 2006 that the Gbp/Usd has moved between 170 and 179 pips 12 times counting last Friday. Two of the eleven occasions the day following such a move it moved 234 pips and 257 pips. The other nine days following such a transfer as past Friday it had a range of 72 to 159 pips together with the average of those nine days being 104 pips. Of these nine days it only attained the mathematical R1 or even S1 twice. It currently has a low of 1.9923 and the high of 1.9968 using a top low range of 45 pips. If it remains with at the 104 pip day then range it would hit 2.0027 on the upper side and or 1.9864 on the base side. The very first day of the week on the average has a below average trading day. The Gbp/Usd for 2007 has a daily average range of 122 pips in comparison to 128 pips the same time last year. For 2006 the Gbp/Usd ended up using a 134 pip daily range average.
    Thank you for this information. What is more interesting is to determine (statistically also) the least average amount of pips transferred in a particular direction prior to the transfer solidified to a large dive/surge in this direction. Or the ordinary number of pips transferred in a direction prior to a big correction. This is how good AI works.

    In addition, it is better in my view to study the NET amount of pips transferred up OR down rather than in total, because total pipage oscillated up and down doesn't actually tell you anything to use within an actual trade.

    Great stuff, keep it coming!

  7. #7
    Very good points are working on that with gbp/usd but have not followed through completely on it. Advice stered just have to put it. My goal is to consistantly capture a portion of pips each day using gbp/usd gbp/jpy eur/jpy and appearing at other pairs that have some motion. Something that may cross using the Audy possibly eur/aud. I think that the Audy is looking to go bearish they're having some intense droughty (lack of rain)that will likely be effecting its currency.

  8. #8
    The average range between the high and low for the next currencies Involving 6pm eastern and 10pm eastern for 2007 is (for some this Could be the Initial 4hr candle is)

    GbpUsd is 33 pips down from the 2006 Typical of 46 pips about a 38% decrease
    EurJpy is 55 pips Upward from the 2006 Typical of 38 pips about a 50% Rise
    GbbJpy is 83 pips Upward from the 2006 Typical of 56 pips Approximately a 50% increase

  9. #9
    2006 Daily Range For GBP/USD Has Been 134 pips
    2006 Daily Range For GBP/USD for Now last Season was 134 pips
    2007 Daily Range For GBP/USD to date is 121 pips
    2007 5 Day Daily Range For GBP/USD is 105Pips
    2007 10 Day Daily Range For GBP/USD is 107 pips
    2007 20 Day Daily Range For GBP/USD is 112 pips
    2007 55 Day Daily Range For GBP/USD is 114 pips

  10. #10
    Below are the ranges between the high and low of each 4 hour time period for your GbpUsd . These are US eastern.

    6pm-10pm 33 pips
    10pm-2am 30 pips
    2am-6am 69 pips
    6am-10am 65 pips
    10am-2pm 52 pips
    2pm-6pm 27 pip

    The 2007 daily range for its GbpUsd thus far is 121 pips.

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