Thread: Automation and backtesting

Originally Posted by ;

quote So all backtestings are doomed to fail then?

Show me a constant profitable EA, and Ill give you a thousand bucks

Originally Posted by ;

quote Prove me a consistent profitable EA, and Ill give you a thousand dollars

You mean automation fails always?

Originally Posted by ;

quote So all backtestings are doomed to fail then?

Yes Almost constantly its doom to fail unless you understand what it is you are attempting to perform. I.e People who understand how markets works [which I think some of them knows it] knows that 99.9 percent of trading systems and also all those expert advisors or robots will probably fail in the long run.

Originally Posted by ;

quote Yes Almost constantly its doom to fail unless you know what you're trying to do. I.e People who know how markets functions [that I think a number of them understands it] understands that 99.9 percent of trading egies and also all those expert advisors or robots will fail in the long run.

Again, many traders utilize back-testing for the wrong motive. I concur with Hdhorda4, you do yourself a disservice if you trade based on back-testing results ONLY and you have to know how the markets operate in general. You can't rely on back-testing besides to see if your idea is viable. Forward testing in live market circumstances can you have a proof of concept.

Trading is a business and you have to know how the business functions before trying your hand at it. Look at it. When your product is in Alpha phase, back-testing is. You see what doesn't and exactly what SEEMS to operate. As soon as you have something that looks like it functions based on which it is you're trying to do, you have to test it in the real world. Beta phase is that world. Forward test on real-time demonion to work out any kinks not experienced or shown in Alpha testing.

The secret to comprehend the difference between Demo and reside is in demonion, its not real cash. The situations you try in demonion do not carry over to reside. There is a plogical barrier that needs to be addressed when you go live. Be prepared for that.

In part two of the Beta test, you will have to go live in a very small account, look at it as a focus group. Select 1 or 2 pairs, the amount of real money and also the amount of lots. The thought ought to be scraped in the event that you had the results you wanted in the Beta phase and Alpha yet in beta it doesn't work the same and try again. It wont get any better.

- Ric

Why understanding the market (or similar concepts) can't be programmed at the backtesting?

New analysis, now including a comparison of yesterday (for example, buy and buy today, sell yesterday and market today, buy or sell and also the reverse today)


Y B T B 0.1139
Y S T S 0.0521
Y B T S || Y S T B 0.0521
ALL 0.1481

Same issue, arbitrary intervals give (negative) outcomes.

Why?

Why ace traders say test 100 transactions to find out whether a platform has positive expectancy? But when it's, it fails for 200 transactions or 1000 trades?

Does it matter whether 100 transactions are from X to Y or from S to T? Seems yes

PIPS (blue) vs 1% Risk (reddish) 10000 acc

1% accumulated (blue) , pip accumulated (red)

My comprehension is backtesting period means nothing! Since you are able to stretch or shorten the period and you get completely opposite results.


Therefore the line chart above, the period could have from peak 125000 to 9000 which means you end up with 10% of your account.

Having saying that if we prolong 15 years of backtest into 20 or even 30 years the upward move (positive expectancy) in 15 years might be a correction in a bigger down move (negative expectancy).


Do you concur?